Shock! Dramatic Change in China's Tire Export Landscape!

On one hand, export volumes are steadily rising, setting new stage highs; on the other hand, revenue continues to decline, with profits nearing zero.

Foreign trade data for China's tire industry from January to July 2026 has torn open the harshest truth of "pseudo-prosperity" in manufacturing.

The latest export data released by the General Administration of Customs on August 18, behind the seemingly bright export increase, there are no benefits from industrial upgrading, no joy of profit growth, only a vicious bloodbath of low-end involution under global trade blockade.

All foreign trade professionals in the tire industry are being forced to accept a reality: We are selling more and more, earning less and less, and brands are becoming increasingly low-end.

Data Magic: Volume Up, Price Down, Export False Heat

First, look at a set of highly contrasting core data to intuitively feel the industry status:

From January to July 2026, China's rubber tire export volume reached 5.76 million tons, up 2.4% year-on-year, overall export scale remaining firmly at a historical high. Single tire export pieces exceeded 420 million, undoubtedly the world's largest tire exporting country.

But strangely, sales volume rose, but money decreased.

In the same period, the total tire export amount was 96.3 billion yuan, down 3% year-on-year. Core categories such as new inflated rubber tires and automotive tires saw even more drastic declines: New tire export amount declined by 3.2%, automotive tire export amount plummeted by 5.5%.

As the absolute core of the national tire industry and the number one province for tires, Shandong, the data directly hit the industry pain points: In January-July 2026, Shandong's rubber tire export amount reached 50.51 billion yuan, accounting for more than half of the national total, yet it fell sharply by 7.7% year-on-year, the decline far exceeding the national average. The deep decline of top production areas has solidified the reality of industry profit collapse.

Volume up, price down is never simple market fluctuation, but ironclad evidence of the industry falling into vicious competition.

This means China tires are using price cuts to exchange for sales volume, exhausting the market with extreme low prices to exchange for good-looking export data. Countless factories are working at full capacity, busy all year round, finally only earning production capacity consumption and thin cash flow, but no profit.

High-End Locked: European and American Markets Completely Closed Off

The root of this involution crisis started with the comprehensive blockade of the global high-end market.

The era that relied on European and American high-end markets to earn high profits has ended completely, with no possibility of reversal.

The EU anti-dumping final ruling delayed and implemented in June this year dealt a fatal blow to Chinese tire enterprises: levying high punitive tariffs of 4.3%-45.3% on domestic light truck tires and passenger car tires.

After the policy implementation, market data instantly changed: In the first half of 2026, China's radial tire exports to the EU plummeted by 35.2% year-on-year, overall exports to Europe were halved in the first two months.

Not only the EU, the US market has long been completely closed off.

US comprehensive tax rates on Chinese tires approach 190% at the highest, combined with transit channels being comprehensively restricted, Now China's tire exports to the US have plummeted by 98% compared to the historical peak, basically equivalent to completely exiting the US market.

More严峻 is that trade barriers continue to be added layer by layer. Carbon tariffs, stringent technical standards, retrospective tax collection policies follow one after another. The European and American high-end, high-profit tire markets have completely closed their doors to Chinese enterprises.

The former core profit granary has completely dried up, and excess domestic production capacity is instantly unable to find a place.

New Markets: Seemingly Increment, Actually Escape Route

Many people are puzzled: Why did overall export volumes still rise against the trend when European and American markets collapsed? The answer is simple: Domestic enterprises collectively fled, clustering into Asia, Africa, and Latin America new markets.

This is not active strategic upgrade, but passive risk avoidance survival escape route.

In the first half of 2026, the three major new markets of Africa, Asia (excluding West Asia), and Latin America, supported all the increment of China's tire exports.

Here is the year-on-year increase and decrease of exports of passenger car tires and commercial vehicle tires to major continents in the first half of the year:

✅ Africa Market Explosive Growth: Tire import increase reached 25.48%, with core markets such as South Africa, Nigeria, and Tanzania having export increases all breaking through 30%, South Africa surged 65.64% even more. Geopolitical conflicts caused Middle East orders to be blocked, a large amount of domestic production capacity was forced to transfer to Africa, combined with Africa infrastructure implementation, commercial vehicle replacement rigidity, cost-performance advantages, quickly absorbing domestic excess production capacity.

✅ Asia Market Steady Rise: Relying on RCEP policy dividends, tariff reductions, customs clearance acceleration significantly reduced export costs, infrastructure expansion in Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam and other countries, transport capacity demand surged, local production capacity was severely insufficient, January-March India and Indonesia commercial vehicle production surged 20%, 35.6% year-on-year respectively, highly dependent on China tire imports.

✅ Latin America Market Strongly Filling the Gap: Radial tire export increase reached 22.3%, Brazil import volume nearly doubled, Mexico relied on free trade agreement advantages, China tires circumventing into North American market's only stepping stone.

The seemingly blooming new markets behind hide the biggest hidden danger: all increments are concentrated entirely in the mid-to-low-end tracks.

Industry Involution: Low-End Bloodbath, Profit Zero

High-end market cannot enter, mid-to-low-end market crowded to bursting, a cruel production capacity involution completely crushed industry profits.

Originally excess production capacity supplied to European and American high-end markets flooded into Southeast Asia, Africa, Latin America markets in large quantities. Limited mid-to-low-end demand, facing flooded Chinese tire production capacity, price war becomes the only competition means.

Industry status has already become cruel to the extreme:

1, Throughout the year overseas tire quotations generally declined 10%-18%, selling prices continued to bottom out;

2, Small and medium foreign trade tire enterprise gross margins fell below 3%, falling into a vicious cycle of "not taking orders to stop production, taking orders to incur loss";

3, The vast majority of enterprises do not make money from products, but rely on export tax rebates to barely survive.

More terrifying than short-term losses is irreversible brand downgrading.

Long-term exchange of low prices for market, has made China tires completely solidify "low-end cheap, cost-performance generic brand" negative labels. Even with quality production capacity, high-end products, unable to enter overseas high-end channels, completely lost brand premium ability.

At the same time, the former blue ocean markets are quickly turning red. Russia, South American multiple countries have successively initiated trade investigations, levied tariffs, new market trade barriers are rapidly taking shape, survival space left for domestic enterprises is continuously shrinking.

Ultimate Dilemma: Blockaded Outwards, Trapped in Internal Wastage Inwards

Looking at the full picture of tire exports in the first 7 months of 2026, we can burst the industry's biggest misconception: The crisis in the current tire industry has never been insufficient market demand, but vicious capacity involution under double blockade.

Externally, global trade protectionism has fully risen, high-end blockade, mid-end encirclement, low-end blockade, China tires' global trade space is continuously compressed; Internally, low-end production capacity is seriously excessive, enterprises lack differentiated competitiveness, will only fall into homogenization price killing.

Volume increases but revenue doesn't, increment increases but profit doesn't, moving volume but price doesn't, this is the most realistic portrayal of the current tire industry.

In the short term, relying on new market rigidity to undertake, domestic tire export data can still maintain decency; but in the long term, low-price involution, brand downgrading, barrier intensification trends, if there is no industrial upgrading, capacity clearance, brand breakout, this cruel survival bloodbath will only intensify.

When Made in China can only exchange for market with low prices, ultimately lost, is the entire industry's future.