
The "midterm exam" report card for China's car market in the first half of 2026 presents a rare picture of ice and fire.
Data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers shows that domestic car sales (including commercial vehicles) were 9.921 million in the first half, a year-on-year decline of 21.1%. Retail data for passenger cars compiled by the China Passenger Car Association is also not optimistic; cumulative retail sales from January to June were 8.701 million, a year-on-year decline of 20.2%. The fuel vehicle market even suffered an "avalanche"—under CAAM figures, domestic fuel passenger car sales in June were only 490,000, down 489,000 from the same period last year, a drop of nearly half.
The export side is a completely different story. Data from the General Administration of Customs shows that 1.037 million cars were exported in June, breaking the million-unit monthly threshold for the first time, a year-on-year growth of 75.1%; cumulative exports for the first half were 5.096 million, a year-on-year growth of 65.3%, with semi-annual export volume breaking the 5 million unit mark for the first time. Among them, 2.355 million New Energy Vehicles were exported, a year-on-year increase of 1.2 times. Chen Shihua, Deputy Secretary-General of the CAAM, said plainly: "In the first half of this year, car market sales were mainly driven by exports."
In this structural shift of "cool inside, hot outside," SAIC Motor returned to the industry's first place with cumulative sales of 2.045 million, becoming the only full-vehicle group to break 2 million in the first half. The value of this "first place" does not lie in the number itself, but in the fact it reveals: the competitive logic of China's automotive industry has completely changed.

Exports Are Reshaping the Sales Ranking
In the first half, SAIC's overseas markets accumulated sales of 735,000, up 48.7% year-on-year. In June alone, SAIC's overseas sales reached 146,000, surging 61.2% year-on-year, setting a new historical record. Europe is SAIC's largest overseas market; the MG brand accumulated sales of over 190,000 in the first half, with year-on-year growth exceeding 20%.

The 735,000 overseas sales account for 35.9% of SAIC Motor Group's total sales of 2.045 million — over one-third of the pie comes from overseas. Without the pull of nearly 50% growth in the export sector, SAIC would not only struggle to return to first place but would also find it very difficult to hold the 2 million unit scale threshold.
In June, SAIC's full vehicle sales were 395,000, up 8.1% year-on-year. While most domestic automakers were still worried about declining sales, SAIC achieved counter-trend growth relying on overseas markets.
BYD, Geely, and Chery also found incremental growth overseas. BYD accumulated sales of 1.809 million in the first half; the overseas market was the key support for its June sales rebounding to 403,500 units. Chery exported 943,800 units in the first half, a surge of 71.5% year-on-year, setting a new record for semi-annual exports by a Chinese automaker. Cui Dongshu, Secretary-General of the China Passenger Car Association, summarized this: "The essence of wholesale-retail divergence is a dividing line in enterprise globalization capabilities."
Why Was SAIC Able to Catch This Wave of Dividend?
Export dividends are not equally distributed. SAIC's ability to continuously increase volume in overseas markets relies on the layout set up over the past decade.
The brand and time barriers formed by first-mover advantage are the hardest to overcome. The MG brand has held the title of "Best-selling Chinese Brand in Europe" for eleven consecutive years. In the UK, MG climbed to sixth place on the May brand sales ranking; in Denmark, MG sales surged 315% from January to May; in Romania, MG rose to sixth place in May auto sales. On the European continent, cumulative over 1 million MG brand cars are on the road — this is the first "million club" for a Chinese brand in Europe. A decade of channel construction and brand awareness accumulation cannot be copied in the short term simply by burning money.

Precise adaptation at the product level is also key. SAIC did not simply "move" domestic models abroad, but created over ten brand new models targeting overseas markets covering all power forms: ICE, HEV, PHEV, and EV. MG has become the world's first automotive brand to achieve mass production of semi-solid-state batteries. IM AD intelligent driving systems cover all five continents globally, and the overseas travel i-Smart system global activations have broken one million. From the Frankfurt Motor Show to the Goodwood Festival of Speed, the formation of technical labels has allowed MG to gradually shift from a "value-for-money choice" to a "technical brand" in overseas markets.
The upgrade of operation models from "selling cars" to "operating markets" is also accelerating. On July 1st, MG established direct sales companies in Belgium and Luxembourg, shifting from an agency model to direct management. In Thailand, MG launched full-service standards and provided lifetime warranties for the core electric systems for pure electric models. In Central Asia, SAIC achieved localized production with the Allur Group in Kazakhstan, and also achieved a "zero breakthrough" for SAIC Volkswagen in the Central Asian market. When overseas annual sales reach the million-unit level, pure trade exports are no longer enough; transforming towards systematic operation is the necessary path.

Accumulations at these three levels support each other — brand awareness makes products easier to accept, product strength reinforces brand image in turn, and the perfection of the operation system allows the value of the former two to be continuously realized. SAIC executed this combination punch exactly during the window period when export dividends were released in a concentrated manner.
Overseas Share Exceeds One-Third, Is SAIC Still "SAIC"?
When overseas sales account for 35.9% of the group's total sales, a question worth asking is: Is SAIC still the domestic automaker with Shanghai as its base?
In terms of volume, 735,000 units of overseas annual sales has already exceeded the total annual sales of many domestic automakers. MG's cumulative sales in Europe broke 1 million units, becoming the first "million club" member for a Chinese brand in Europe. Overseas business is no longer an "incremental supplement," but a core sector running parallel to domestic business.

The impact brought by this structural change is profound. Fluctuations in overseas markets — whether tariff policy adjustments, exchange rate changes, or intensified local competition — will affect the group's overall performance in the form of SAIC's "core variables" rather than "marginal disturbances." SAIC's valuation logic, management structure, and resource allocation methods all need to adapt to this new "dual-core" landscape.
The deeper change lies in the fact that when a Chinese automaker's overseas sales exceed one-third, its competitors are no longer just those domestic ones — in Europe, MG faces Volkswagen, Stellantis, and Tesla; in Southeast Asia, it must fight for territory with Japanese cars; in Central Asia, it must wrestle with Korean cars. This ability of "dancing with wolves" cannot be practiced in the domestic market.

The "midterm exam" of China's car market in the first half of 2026, the most core conclusion might not be who took the first place, but that the "cool inside, hot outside" structural differentiation is reshaping the competitive logic of the entire industry. For any automaker with a performance not worse in the first half, a "second growth curve" was found overseas. The era of determining ranking by "delivery volume" has passed; whoever can sell cars to more places and take root in more markets is the one who will survive the elimination round in the second half.