Volume Cap, Structure Upgrade: Semi-Steel Market Critical Gear Shift!

Recently, market research institution "Gewu Zhisheng" released "2026 China Semi-Steel Tire Market Research". The report shows that sales of semi-steel tires in China reached a historical peak of 686 million in 2025, but will decline slightly afterwards — the industry has officially shifted from "Incremental Expansion" to "Stock Adjustment" phase.

Market Enters Stock Competition

2025 became the year of total volume peak for China's semi-steel tire market. According to Gewu Zhisheng calculations, total sales of semi-steel tires nationwide were about 686 million that year, with 344 million domestic and 342 million exported, with domestic and export sales almost equal. However, the market will decline slightly afterwards, and the industry has officially entered the stage of stock-based structural competition.

There are two clear clues behind this judgment.

First is Export Peak Reached. Export volume of 342 million in 2025 has hit the capacity ceiling, the agency predicts continuous decline in 2026 and 2027, due to continued increase in trade barriers (anti-dumping, tariffs, regional compliance regulations) from developed economies, combined with accelerated construction of overseas local production capacity, the model relying solely on low prices and volume is unsustainable.

Second is Domestic Sales Relay. Domestic semi-steel tire sales grew from 257 million in 2020 to 344 million in 2025, expected to further rise to 360 million and 370 million in 2026-2027. Domestic sales growth rate is better than the industry average, core driver comes from new energy vehicle manufacturers' original equipment volume expansion.

Growth logic has shifted from "Total Capacity Expansion" to "Product Structure Upgrade". Whoever can increase large size, low rolling resistance, new energy specific tires, is the one who can capture the incremental growth of the next stage.

Cost Side Continues to Face Pressure, Price Hike Transmission Severely Lagging

In the first half of 2026, semi-steel tire core raw material prices generally rose, enterprise production costs rose significantly, and the industry collectively released price hike letters.

Upstream raw material comprehensive costs rose 12%-16% year-on-year. Mainstream 18-inch household passenger car semi-steel tire single piece production cost increased by 30-45 RMB, 20-inch and above high-end tires increased by more than 50 RMB.

But the key to the problem is poor transmission. The lag period for factory price hike transmission to terminals reaches 2-3 months, terminal retail prices only absorb 40%-60% of the factory price increase. Dealer and store profits are severely compressed, combined with weak consumption, replacement market demand continues to face pressure.

Polarization intensifies accordingly: Head enterprises rely on long-term agreements to lock prices, overseas bases for nearby procurement, can hedge 40%-60% of raw material volatility risk; small and medium manufacturers have no scale price-locking advantage, gross margin fell below 12%, losses, active production reduction phenomenon occurs frequently.

China's tire industry average capacity utilization rate fell 5-8 percentage points year-on-year, expected 2026 passenger car tire industry concentration increased, tail end inefficient capacity accelerated clearance.

New Energy Reshapes Supply Market

Explosive growth of new energy passenger cars is reshaping the semi-steel tire supply pattern.

2020 new energy passenger car production was only 1.25 million, penetration rate 6%; 2025 has climbed to 16.63 million, penetration rate 48%, six-year cumulative increase over 12 times. Fuel passenger car production share dropped from nearly 94% to 52%.

Semi-steel tire supply market grew from 100.89 million in 2020 to 158 million in 2025, 2023 year-on-year large increase of 17.6% was the stage peak.

But as domestic passenger car stock peaks, new car incremental growth gradually narrows, 2025-2026 supply growth rate expected to be only 1.3%, 2026-2027 small rebound to 3.1%, overall entering low-speed steady growth stage.

Domestic Capital Leads Completely, Foreign Capital Share Continues to Face Pressure

In 2025, semi-steel tire domestic sales market presented a clear "Domestic Capital Dominated" pattern.

Zhongce and Linglong rank as dual leaders, share each reaching 11.1%. Top 5 Domestic Brand Combined Share Accounts for 56%, relying on supply + replacement dual channel advantages to solidify core market.

Top 11-14 Mid-Range Echelon Completely Monopolized by Foreign Capital, deeply cultivating mid-to-high end supply resources; Top 15 and Later Tail Market Domestic Share Reaches 94.1%, relying on cost-performance to cover low-end replacement demand.

Growth rate comparison better explains the problem: Sailun +20.4%, Giti +14.8%, Zhongce +14.5%, Maxxis +15.6%, domestic head brand growth rates generally bright; foreign capital aspect, Hankook -2.4%, Goodyear -3.6%, Dunlop -13.0%, most appear to decline.

Foreign Brands Pricing Too High, Downward Channels Weak, anti-cycle ability significantly weaker than domestic. This trend is particularly significant in replacement market — foreign brands' market share in mid-price segment is being rapidly eroded by domestic brands.

Capacity Overseas Expansion Becomes Must-Have Option

Domestic capacity shows strong regional cluster characteristics, Shandong province accounts for 45% of semi-steel tire capacity, Zhejiang 16%, Jiangsu 7%, Liaoning 5%, Guizhou 5%. Coastal areas port supply is perfect, adapted for large quantity export logistics demand.

But with Shandong environmental protection becoming stricter, outdated capacity clearance, capacity is slowly shifting to Anhui, Zhejiang, Jiangsu and other places.

The more core change is going overseas. Head enterprises overseas capacity planning is clear:

Sailun Overseas Planned Total Capacity 49 Million Tires is Highest in Industry, overseas bases spread across Vietnam, Cambodia, Mexico, Indonesia, Egypt, core direction is avoiding trade barriers. Zhongce 2025 Overseas Sales 41.65 Million Tires Has Surpassed Domestic for First Time (share 52%), global strategy results are significant.

Policy Threshold Systematically Raised, Industry Accelerated Clearance

Short term (2025-2026), mandatory national standards concentrated landing. GB 9743-2024 "Passenger Car Tires" For the first time included smart tire technical specifications, rolling resistance and wet grip clauses enforced mandatory from May 2026; GB 29449-2024 divides semi-steel tire energy consumption into three levels (benchmark ≤255, access ≤290, baseline ≤430 kgce/t). Non-compliant capacity will be directly withdrawn.

Long term (2027 and onwards), energy consumption, carbon emissions, waste tire recycling full-chain standard system complete upgrade, High energy consumption, low technology small and medium enterprise survival space continuously compressed, industry concentration steadily rising.

At the same time, Shandong tire projects no longer managed as "High Energy and High Emission" projects, high-quality compliant capacity approval accelerates; "State Council Regulations on Foreign Investment" (Order No. 837, implemented July 2026) provides institutional guarantee for capacity overseas expansion.

The effect of the policy combination fist is: Backward capacity accelerated clearance, head enterprises obtained larger market share space.

Conclusion: China's semi-steel tire industry is in a subtle turning point. Total volume peak means the end of the extensive expansion era, but structural opportunities are still abundant: new energy supply, large size high-endization, overseas market expansion, stock replacement demand, four main lines concurrent.

The direction of industry concentration increase is certain. Uncertain is only the position and speed of each enterprise in this structural adjustment.