On the afternoon of September 9, international crude oil prices surged again, with Brent crude breaking through the $100 per barrel mark. Meanwhile, natural rubber is approaching the 20,000 yuan threshold, and carbon black is nearing the "10,000 yuan era". With raw materials rising across the board, Zhongce, Giti, Wanli, Primus Chengshan and about 30 other tire enterprises released price hike letters in succession, and the industry's third price hike wave of the year is surging.

Oil Price Breaks 100, Supply Gap Widens

As of press time, both Brent and New York crude oil prices rose, with Brent's year-to-date cumulative increase exceeding 60%. The continuous escalation of the Middle East situation is the direct driver: US forces destroyed 5 Iranian tankers carrying crude oil, and multiple Saudi energy facilities were attacked by Houthi forces. According to Rystad Energy data, daily crude oil transport volume in the Strait of Hormuz has plummeted from 8 million-9 million barrels before hostilities reignited to below 2 million barrels; IEA estimates global oil supply will decrease by 4.3 million barrels per day this year, a decrease of about 4%.

Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, HSBC and other institutions have successively raised oil price forecasts. Goldman Sachs warned that if the situation escalates further, oil prices could rise to $120 per barrel. At 24:00 on September 11, domestic oil prices will face a price adjustment window. According to Jinlianchuang calculations, retail prices for gasoline and diesel should be increased by 260 yuan per ton.

Rubber and Carbon Black Surge on Two Fronts

The rubber market surged simultaneously. Closing on September 9, the Shanghai Futures Exchange natural rubber main contract quoted 19,770 yuan per ton, just one step away from the 20,000 yuan threshold; the day before, the No. 20 rubber main contract refreshed the record since listing, synthetic rubber rose 4.59% in a single day, and the rubber family's "three brothers" rose together.

Carbon black price trends were even more fierce. Upstream coal tar auction transaction prices rose nearly 1,500 yuan compared to the same period last week, approaching historical highs; the market price of N220 was about 9,628 yuan per ton, a year-on-year increase of nearly 36%, and the daily increase of N330 once reached 550 yuan, with market discussions about the carbon black "10,000 yuan era" rapidly heating up. Coal tar accounts for about 70%-80% of carbon black costs, and carbon black accounts for about 15% of tire costs. Price hikes are being transmitted along the industrial chain level by level.

According to Zhuochuang Information data, compared with a month ago, mixed rubber, styrene-butadiene rubber, polybutadiene rubber, and carbon black N330 rose by 8.75%, 16.67%, 20.65%, and 16.89% respectively—the four core raw materials surged across the board. GTJA Futures analysts pointed out that oil prices pushing butadiene, supply contraction, Thai rubber tapping hindered, combined with El Niño production cut expectations, and the industrial chain price hike atmosphere strengthening, constitute a triple drive.

30 Enterprises Jointly Announce Price Hikes, Third Price Hike Wave of the Year

Under heavy cost pressure, price hike letters landed densely:

Zhongce Rubber increased all-steel engineering tire prices by 3%-5% from September 15; from October 1, other off-road products increased by 3%. Giti from September 27, all replacement market brand products overall adjusted up by 2%-4%. Wanli from September 23, some domestic semi-steel tire products adjusted up by 3%-5%, subsequent price adjustments cannot be ruled out. Primus Chengshan from September 26, replacement market all-steel tires, bias tires overall adjusted up by 3%. Fangxing Rubber, Weihai Rubber, Jianxin Rubber and others also followed successively.

According to incomplete statistics, since late August, Aeolus, Triangle, Cheng Shin, Maxxis and more than 20 other enterprises have released price adjustment notices. The total number of enterprises adjusting prices this round reached about 30, with mainstream increases of 2%-5%.

Petang 9 September, harga minyak mentah antarabangsa meletus lagi, minyak mentah Brent menembusi had 100 dolar AS setiap tong. Sementara itu, getah asli menghampiri had 20,000 Yuan, arang perap mendekati "Era 10,000 Yuan". Di bawah kenaikan semua bahan mentah, Zhongce, Giti, Wanli, Pulin Chenshan dan kira-kira 30 syarikat tayar lain mengeluarkan surat kenaikan harga secara berurutan, gelombang kenaikan harga sektor ke-3 dalam tahun ini datang secara gah.

Harga Minyak Pecah 100, Kekosongan Bekalan Meluas

Setakat artikel ini diterbitkan, minyak mentah Brent dan New York sama-sama naik, kenaikan kumulatif Brent dalam tahun ini melebihi 60%. Keadaan Timur Tengah yang terus meningkat adalah pendorong langsung: Tentera AS menghancurkan 5 kapal minyak Iran yang membawa minyak mentah, berbagai kemudahan tenaga di Arab Saudi diserang oleh askar Houthi. Data Rystad Energy menunjukkan, jumlah pengangkutan minyak mentah harian di Selat Hormuz telah turun mendadak daripada 8 juta - 9 juta tong sebelum perang berlarutan kepada di bawah 2 juta tong; IEA menjangkakan bekalan minyak dunia berkurangan 4.3 juta tong setiap hari tahun ini, pengurangan sekitar 4%.

Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, HSBC dan institusi lain naikkan ramalan harga minyak, Goldman Sachs memperingatkan jika keadaan meningkat lagi, harga minyak mungkin naik ke 120 dolar AS/tong. Pada 11 September, pukul 24.00, tetingkap penyesuaian harga minyak domestik akan tiba, berdasarkan pengiraan Jin Lianchuang, harga runcit petrol dan diesel perlu dinaikkan 260 Yuan/ton.

Getah dan Arang Perap Naik Tinggi dalam Dua Garis

Pasar getah naik serentak. Tutup pasaran pada 9 September, Laporan Getah Utama Bursa Komoditi Shanghai 19,770 Yuan/ton, hanya setapak dari had 20,000 Yuan; hari sebelumnya, Kekuatan Karet No. 20 memecahkan rekod sejak dilancarkan, getah sintetik naik 4.59% sehari, Tiga "Adik Beradik" Getah naik tinggi bersama.

Kenaikan Arang Perap lebih ganas. Harga lelong minyak arang batu hulu naik hampir 1,500 Yuan berbanding minggu lalu, menghampiri rekod tinggi sejarah; harga pasaran N220 kira-kira 9,628 Yuan/ton, meningkat hampir 36% secara tahun ke tahun, kadar kenaikan harian N330 pernah mencapai 550 Yuan, perbualan pasaran mengenai "Era 10,000 Yuan" Arang Perap dengan cepat panas. Minyak arang batu约占 70%-80% kos Arang Perap, Arang Perap pula约占 15% kos tayar, kenaikan harga sedang dihantar merentasi rantaian industri secara berperingkat.

Data Zhongchuang menunjukkan, berbanding sebulan yang lalu, Getah campuran, Getah S-B, Getah Cis-1,4, Arang Perap N330 naik masing-masing 8.75%, 16.67%, 20.65%, 16.89%—empat bahan mentah utama semua naik ganas. Penganalisis Futures Guotai Junan menyatakan, harga minyak mendorong Butadiene, bekalan mengecut, pengumpulan getah Thailand terhalang ditambah jangkaan hasil rendah El Nino, suasana kenaikan harga rantaian industri dikuatkan, membentuk tiga pendorong.

30 Syarikat Umumkan Kenaikan Secara Kolektif, Gelombang Kenaikan Ke-3 Tahun Ini

Di bawah tekanan kos yang berat, surat kenaikan harga mendarat secara intensif:

Zhongce Rubber mulai 15 September, ban kejuruteraan keluli naik 3%-5%, mulai 1 Oktober, produk bukan jalan lain naik 3%; Giti mulai 27 September, keseluruhan produk dalam pasaran penggantian naik 2%-4%; Wanli mulai 23 September, beberapa produk ban separa keluli domestik naik 3%-5%, tidak mengecualikan harga lain akan diselaraskan kemudian; Pulin Chenshan mulai 26 September, ban keluli dan bias dalam pasaran penggantian naik 3%. Fangxing Rubber, Weihai Rubber, Jianxin Rubber dan lain-lain turut mengikut.

Berdasarkan statistik tidak lengkap, sejak pertengahan akhir Ogos, Fengshen, Sanjiao, Cheng Shin, Maxxis dan lebih 20 syarikat lain telah mengeluarkan notis penyesuaian harga, jumlah syarikat penyesuaian harga pusingan ini mencapai kira-kira 30 buah, kenaikan arus utama 2%-5%.