The first half of 2026 is over; it is time to review the development of the new energy vehicle market in the first half of the year.

Overall, China's market position dominated by new energy vehicles has become relatively stable. In June, the retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles remained at a historic high of 62.8%.

On July 8, the CPCA released market data for passenger cars in June. The word most used by CPCA Secretary General Cui Dongshu was differentiation — “collapse of domestic fuel car sales, dominant strength of new energy vehicles, and strong growth in exports”. More specifically, passenger car trends were difficult, commercial vehicles were hot, and the performance of plug-in hybrids and extended-range vehicles was far weaker than pure electric models.

From the data perspective, from January to June 2026, new energy passenger car retail sales were 4.704 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 14.0%; wholesale sales were 6.788 million units, a year-on-year increase of 5.1%. The coexistence of negative growth in retail and positive growth in wholesale, reveals the core characteristic of the current market, which is domestic consumption contraction and explosive growth in overseas exports.

With the retreat of subsidies and the impact of high oil prices, new energy vehicles stabilized their basic market share through technology iteration and explosive export growth. Fuel vehicles, under the dual suppression of new energy vehicles and high oil prices, saw their market share shrink significantly.

01

Domestic Brands Lead, New Forces Gain Share, Joint Ventures Face 'Fuel vs. Electric' Contrasting Fortunes

In terms of enterprises, without exception, BYD still leads the pack with a monthly wholesale sales volume of 397,000 units. Domestic brands such as Geely, Chery, and Leapmotor made strong breakthroughs, while joint venture brands showed a dramatic differentiation of 'dismal fuel sales vs. rapid electric growth' — mainstream joint venture new energy retail sales grew by 45% year-on-year, but their fuel car base shrank by 39% concurrently.

Manufacturers with New Energy Passenger Car Wholesale Sales Exceeding 10,000 Units in June

 Source: CPCA

Enterprise Brands with Domestic New Energy Passenger Car Retail Sales Exceeding 20,000 Units in June

Source: CPCA

In terms of new forces, the retail share of new forces rose to 26.0% in June, an increase of 6.5 percentage points year-on-year, and it is particularly worth noting that the proportion of pure electric vehicle sales for new forces reached as high as 82.2%, and the sales proportion of 100,000-150,000 yuan level models increased significantly, indicating that they are penetrating the mass market.

In terms of second-generation creators, new energy brands incubated by traditional large groups such as Zeekr, Deepal, Arcfox, and Lantu performed brightly. The share of independent new energy brands from traditional domestic automakers reached 18.5%, an increase of 5.2 percentage points year-on-year.

In terms of joint venture brands, the penetration rate of mainstream joint venture new energy only rose to 11.9%, but joint venture new energy vehicle sales grew by 45% year-on-year, while fuel vehicle sales plummeted by 39%, forming a sharp contrast. The new energy penetration rate of luxury cars reached 39.6%, but overall retail still declined by 30%, significantly impacted by high oil prices and downgrading consumption.

02

New Energy Vehicle Penetration Rate 62.8%, Extended-Range Wholesale Plunged 25.2% Year-on-Year

From the wholesale perspective, pure electric and plug-in hybrid still maintain positive growth, while extended-range vehicles show a decline in both wholesale and retail; from the retail perspective, all three routes declined, with pure electric having the smallest decline at -6.6%; plug-in hybrid had the largest decline at -27.6%. The growth rate difference between retail and wholesale clearly reflects the degree of reliance on exports to drive each route.

Currently, the characteristic of the pure electric market is 'the more expensive, the easier to sell; the cheaper, the harder to sell'. Pure electric wholesale increased by 10.7% month-on-month in June, significantly higher than the retail month-on-month growth rate. Class B electric vehicles became the only sub-segment with high-speed growth, with wholesale volume of 295,000 units in June, a 37% year-on-year increase, accounting for 30% of pure electric share, an increase of 2 percentage points compared to the same period last year, with high-end models like Model Y and BYD Song continuing to sell well. While the entry-level market saw a cliff-like decline: Class A00 wholesale in June was only 77,000 units, a 50% year-on-year plunge, dropping from nearly 20% last year to 8% of pure electric share; Class A electric vehicles wholesale was 236,000 units, a decrease of 2.7 percentage points year-on-year. Although the combined share of Class A00 and A0 accounts for 40% of pure electric share, it mainly relies on exports for digestion, and the domestic market performance is weak.

Plug-in hybrid models are the sub-segment where domestic and foreign demand divergence is most severe among the three routes. Wholesale volume for the first half of the year was 1.997 million units, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%; retail volume was 1.155 million units, a year-on-year drop of 27.6%. The difference in growth rates between retail and wholesale was 32.2 percentage points,

Extended-range models are the only sub-segment among the three routes to show a decline in both wholesale and retail. Wholesale volume for the first half of the year was 504,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 13.1%; retail volume was 439,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 19.4%, and the decline showed an expanding trend — wholesale volume for June alone was 94,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 25.2%, and a month-on-month decrease of 0.2%.

The share of extended-range vehicles in the new energy wholesale structure has been compressed from about 10% in 2025 to 6.4% (June alone).

The decline in plug-in hybrid and extended-range models is mainly affected by falling battery prices, flash charging technology, and the improvement of charging facilities.

Regarding the poor performance in the June retail sector, Cui Dongshu's explanation is that the Dragon Boat Festival mismatch created a high base effect, the '618' promotion failed to meet expectations, the World Cup kick-off diverted the time and budget of car buyers, the college entrance exam and farming busy season suppressed store traffic, compounded by hot and rainy weather, plus the rare frequency squeeze of high base factors.

In addition, the new national standards for new energy vehicle safety landed in July (mandatory requirements for battery 'thermal runaway without fire'), causing some consumers to possibly be in a state of delayed and waiting consumption.

However, the CPCA expressed concern about the weak growth of economic electric vehicles. They believe that from a long-term popularization trend perspective, economic electric vehicle growth has the most potential; only the popularization of entry-level electric vehicles can truly drive sustainable incremental growth in the car market. However, the reality is that the county and township markets, entry-level models declined too much, the marginal impact of subsidy retreat on low-price models far exceeds that of high-end models. If the situation of 'high-end volume, entry-level collapse' continues, it will seriously restrict the popularization process of new energy. Economic electric vehicle standards are urgently needed to guide the industry to fill the entry market blank.

03

Exports Become Core Engine, Overseas Share Jumps

New energy vehicle exports were the biggest highlight of the first half of the year.

First, explosive growth in exports. In June, new energy passenger car exports reached 499,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 152.7%, a month-on-month increase of 17.6%, accounting for 56.9% of total passenger car exports. Cumulative exports for the first half of the year were 2.231 million units, a year-on-year increase of 124.3%, among which fuel car exports also grew by 33% concurrently. In terms of going global, the situation of 'both fuel and electric increase' was formed.

Secondly, the export structure is also being optimized. Pure electric vehicles account for 58.7% of new energy exports, narrow plug-in hybrids account for 37.7%, up 4.3 percentage points from last year; extended-range accounts for 3.6%. In June, BYD (exports 171,000 units), Chery (74,000 units), and Geely (62,000 units) ranked in the top three for exports. The CKD (complete knock-down assembly) export model was promoted rapidly, with Great Wall and SAIC-GM-Wuling, etc., having CKD shares exceeding 30%, and international system capabilities significantly enhanced.

Additionally, the overseas market share is still jumping up. From January to May 2026, China's new energy passenger cars accounted for 62% of the world share, of which pure electric accounted for 58%, plug-in hybrid accounted for 71%. The sales share of autonomous new energy overseas markets jumped significantly from 15.8% in 2025 to 23.4%, with rapid growth in markets such as Brazil, Australia, Thailand, and the UK. Although the US market was significantly affected by subsidy cancellation fluctuations, European new energy grew by 29% year-on-year, and domestic brands are accelerating to fill the blank.

In terms of market forecasting, the CPCA estimates the year-on-year growth rate of domestic narrow passenger car retail sales in 2026 to be about -14%, but Cui Dongshu believes that from the third quarter onwards, the decline will gradually narrow, and market growth expectations may rise by a few percentage points.

Tahun 2026 telah separuh, sudah masanya untuk meninjau semula perkembangan pasaran kereta baharu tenaga elektrik pada separuh pertama tahun ini.

Secara keseluruhannya, status dominan pasaran yang dipimpin oleh kereta baharu tenaga elektrik di China telah agak kukuh, kadar penembusan runcit kereta baharu tenaga elektrik pada Jun kekal berada di paras tinggi sejarah 62.8%.

8 Julai, Persatuan Kereta Penumpang China mempasukan data pasaran kereta penumpang bulan Jun. Satu perkataan yang paling sering digunakan oleh Setiausaha Agung Persatuan Kereta Penumpang China, Cui Dongshu, ialah perbezaan—“Jualan domestik kereta bahan api runtuh, tenaga baharu dominan dengan kuat, eksport berkembang pesat”. Lagi spesifik,kereta penumpang menghadapi situasi sukar, kereta komersial panas, prestasi hibrid bersambung dan julat tambahan jauh lebih lemah berbanding model elektrik tulen.

Dari segi data, pada Januari-Jun 2026, runcit kereta penumpang baharu tenaga elektrik ialah 4.704 juta unit, turun 14.0% secara tahunan; pukal 6.788 juta unit, meningkat 5.1% secara tahunan.Pola yang wujudnya pertumbuhan runcit negatif dan pertumbuhan pukal positif,mendedahkan ciri utama pasaran semasa,iaitu pengunuran domestik mengerut dan ledakan eksport ke luar negara.

Kereta baharu tenaga elektrik, di bawah impak subsidi berkurangan dan minyak mahal, meneguh asas dengan peningkatan teknologi dan ledakan eksport.Kereta bahan api pula mengalami penguncupan besar-besaran dalam bahagian pasaran di bawah tekanan gandaan kereta baharu tenaga elektrik dan harga minyak.

01

Jenama sendiri memimpin, pemain baharu lonjak, jenama kerjasama "petrol dan elektrik dalam dua alam"

Dari segi syarikat, tanpa syak wasangka, BYD masih terdedah dengan 397,000 unit jualan pukal sebulan,Geely, Chery, Leapmotor dan jenama sendiri lain menerobos dengan kuat, jenama kerjasama pula mengalami perbezaan dramatik—"petrol suram, elektrik melonjak"—saham runcit kereta baharu tenaga elektrik kerjasama mainstream meningkat 45%, namun asas kereta bahan api mereka menyusut serentak 39%.

Pengilang yang jualan pukal kereta penumpang baharu tenaga elektrik pada Jun melepasi 10,000 unit

 Sumber: Persatuan Kereta Penumpang China

Jenama syarikat yang jualan runcit kereta penumpang baharu tenaga elektrik pada Jun melepasi 20,000 unit

Sumber: Persatuan Kereta Penumpang China

Dari segi pemain baharu, pada Jun saham runcit pemain baharu naik ke 26.0%, meningkat 6.5 peratus titik berbanding tahun lalu,terutama yang perlu dihargai, kebarangkalian jualan elektrik tulen pemain baharu mencapai 82.2%, dan bahagian jualan model tahap 100,000-150,000 yuan meningkat dengan pesat, menunjukkan mereka sedang menembus pasaran majoriti.

Dari segi syarikat induk, Zeekr, Deepal, Arcfox, Voyah dan jenama baharu tenaga elektrik yang dijana oleh kumpulan tradisional besar menunjukkan prestasi cemerlang,syaham jenama baharu tenaga elektrik jenama sendiri syarikat kereta tradisional mencapai 18.5%, meningkat 5.2 peratus titik berbanding tahun lalu.

Dari segi jenama kerjasama, kadar penembusan kerajaaan baharu tenaga elektrik mainstream hanya naik ke 11.9%, namun jualan kereta baharu tenaga elektrik kerjasama meningkat 45% secara tahunan, manakala kereta bahan api terjun 39%, membentuk perbandingan jelas.Kadar penembusan kerajaaan baharu tenaga elektrik kereta mewah mencapai 39.6%, namun jualan runcit keseluruhan masih turun 30%, mengalami impak jelas daripada harga minyak tinggi dan penurunan taraf pengunuran.

02

Kadar penembusan kereta baharu tenaga elektrik 62.8%, pukal julat tambahan turun 25.2% secara tahunan

Dari segi pukal, elektrik tulen dan hibrid bersambung masih mengekalkan pertumbuhan positif, julat tambahan pula mengalami turun pukal dan runcit kedua-duanya;dari segi runcit, tiga laluan semuanya turun, elektrik tulen turun paling sedikit iaitu -6.6%; hibrid bersambung turun paling banyak iaitu -27.6%.Perbezaan kadar pertumbuhan runcit dan pukal, dengan jelas mencerminkan perbezaan tahap bergantung pada eksport bagi setiap laluan.

Semasa ini, ciri pasaran elektrik tulen ialah "semakin mahal semakin mudah dijual, semakin murah semakin sukar dijual."Pada Jun, pukal elektrik tulen meningkat 10.7% berbanding bulan lalu, jelas lebih tinggi daripada kadar pertumbuhan runcit berbanding bulan lalu.Elektrik B级 menjadi sub-pasaran satu-satunya yang berkembang pesat,pada Jun pukal 295,000 unit, meningkat 37% secara tahunan, mewakili 30% bahagian elektrik tulen, meningkat 2 peratus titik berbanding tempoh sama tahun lalu, Model Y, BYD Song dan model kelas tinggi lain kekal laris. Pasaran permulaan pula menunjukkan kejatuhan mendadak: Pukal A00 pada Jun hanya 77,000 unit, jatuh 50% secara tahunan, mewakili 20% bahagian elektrik tulen tahun lalu turun mendadak ke 8%; pukal elektrik A ialah 236,000 unit, turun 2.7 peratus titik secara tahunan. Gabungan A00 dan A0 walaupun mewakili 40% bahagian elektrik tulen, tetapi terutamanya bergantung pada eksport untuk penyerapan, prestasi pasaran domestik lemah.

Kereta hibrid bersambung, adalah sub-pasaran yang paling teruk di kalangan tiga laluan di mana keperluan dalam dan luar negara bercabang.Pada separuh tahun, pukal ialah 1.997 juta unit, meningkat 4.6% secara tahunan; runcit ialah 1.155 juta unit, jatuh 27.6% secara tahunan. Perbezaan kadar pertumbuhan runcit dan pukal ialah 32.2 peratus titik,

Kereta julat tambahan, adalah sub-pasaran satu-satunya di kalangan tiga laluan yang pukal dan runcit turun sama-sama.Pada separuh tahun, pukal ialah 504,000 unit, turun 13.1% secara tahunan; runcit ialah 439,000 unit, turun 19.4% secara tahunan, dan kadar turun menunjukkan trend berkembang—pukal sebulan Jun ialah 94,000 unit, turun 25.2% secara tahunan, turun 0.2% berbanding bulan lalu.

Persentase julat tambahan dalam struktur pukal baharu tenaga elektrik telah mampat daripada kira-kira 10% pada tahun 2025 ke 6.4% (sebulan Jun).

Kes limpahan kereta hibrid bersambung dan julat tambahan terutamanya disebabkan oleh kejatuhan harga bateri, teknologi cas pantas, dan penyempurnaan kemudahan pengecas.

Mengerusi prestasi runcis Jun yang tidak baik, Cui Dongshu memberikan penjelasan, perbezaan Perayaan Perahu Naga membentuk kesan asas yang tinggi, promosi "618" tidak menepati jangkaan, Piala Dunia bermula memecah masa dan bajet kumpulan pembeli, peperiksaan kemasukan universiti dan musim tanah ladang menekan lalu lintas ke kedai, ditambah dengan cuaca panas dan hujan, serta faktor asas yang tinggi memampatkan secara serentak yang jarang berlaku.

Selain itu, pada Julai piawaian keselamatan kereta baharu tenaga elektrik negara baharu dilaksanakn (persyaratan wajib bateri "tiada api dalam kehilangan kawalan haba"), menyebabkan sebahagian pengguna mungkin berada dalam keadaan tangguh dan menunggu pengunuran.

Walau bagaimanapun, pihak Persatuan Kereta Penumpang China menyatakan kebimbangan mengenai pertumbuhan kereta ekonomi yang lemah. Mereka berpendapat,dari segi trend penyebaran jangka panjang, pertumbuhan kereta ekonomi adalah paling berpotensi, hanya penyebaran kereta permulaan boleh benar-benar menarik pertambahan berkekalan pasaran kereta.Namun realitinya, pasaran bandar kecil dan kampung, kereta permulaan turun terlalu besar, impak subsidi berkurangan terhadap model harga rendah jauh lebih tinggi daripada model kelas tinggi, keadaan "pembebanan kelas tinggi, runtuhan permulaan" jika berterusan, akan mengehadkan proses penyebaran kerajaaan baharu tenaga elektrik. Piawaian kereta ekonomi perlu segera keluar untuk memandu industri mengisi kekosongan pasaran permulaan.

03

Eksport menjadi enjin teras, saham luar negara melonjak

Eksport kereta baharu tenaga elektrik adalah kegemilangan terbesar pada separuh tahun.

Pertama, eksport berkembang pesat.Pada Jun, eksport kereta penumpang baharu tenaga elektrik 499,000 unit, meningkat 152.7% secara tahunan, meningkat 17.6% berbanding bulan lalu, mewakili 56.9% daripada jumlah eksport kereta penumpang. Pada separuh tahun, kumulatif eksport 2.231 juta unit, meningkat 124.3% secara tahunan,其中 eksport kereta bahan api meningkat serentak 33%. Dari segi keluar laut, membentuk keadaan "petrol dan elektrik sama-sama tambah".

Kedua, struktur eksport juga semakin optimum.Elektrik tulen mewakili 58.7% eksort kerajaaan baharu tenaga elektrik, hibrid bersambung mewakili 37.7%, meningkat 4.3 peratus titik berbanding tahun lalu; bahagian julat tambahan ialah 3.6%. Pada Jun, BYD (eksport 171,000 unit), Chery (74,000 unit), Geely (62,000 unit) menduduki tiga teratas eksport. Mod eksport CKD (pemasangan lengkap serbuk) berkembang pesat, Great Wall, SAIC GMW dan lain-lain CKD mewakili lebih daripada 30%, kemampuan sistem antarabangsa diperkukuh dengan ketara.

Selain itu, saham pasaran luar negara masih melonjak.Pada Januari-Mei 2026, saham kereta penumpang baharu tenaga elektrik China di dunia mencapai 62%,其中 elektrik tulen mewakili 58%, hibrid bersambung mewakili 71%. Saham jualan luar negara kerajaaan baharu tenaga elektrik sendiri dari 15.8% pada tahun 2025 melonjak ke 23.4%, berkembang pesat di pasaran Brazil, Australia, Thailand, United Kingdom dan lain-lain. Walaupun pasaran Amerika Syarikat mengalami perubahan hebat akibat pembatalan subsidi, namun kerajaaan baharu tenaga elektrik Eropah meningkat 29% secara tahunan, jenama sendiri sedang mempercepat mengisi kekosongan.

Dari segi ramalan pasaran, Persatuan Kereta Penumpang China meramalkan kadar pertumbuhan runcit kereta penumpang kereta keras domestik tahun 2026 kira-kira -14%, namun Cui Dongshu berpendapat, sejak suku ketiga kadar turun akan semakin mengecil, jangkaan pertumbuhan pasaran mungkin akan naik beberapa peratus titik.

In the first half of 2026, China's car exports reached 4.059 million units, up 63% year-on-year. At this growth rate, breaking 10 million units for the year is almost a certainty — by then China will become the world's first automotive giant to export over 10 million units annually, equivalent to 2.5 times Japan's volume.

But another set of data is not looking so good. From January to May this year, domestic passenger car retail sales reached 7.099 million units cumulatively, down 19.5% year-on-year. Among the five major independent brands, BYD sold 1.8085 million units in the first half, down 15.72% year-on-year. Growth relies mostly on exports. This isn't prosperity; it's like 'starving at home, relying entirely on grabbing from outside'.

Let's first see just how fierce the exports are. Chery exported 940,000 units in half a year, securing the top spot, with a share as high as 74.3% — 3 out of every 4 cars sold were exports. BYD followed with 790,000 units, with 174,800 units exported in June alone. What was most unexpected wasn't the volume, but the direction. In May data from 31 European countries, these five — BYD, SAIC, Geely, Chery, Leapmotor — sold a combined 138,400 units, up 65% year-on-year, surpassing the total of six Japanese brands like Toyota, Nissan, and Honda for the first time. The market share of Chinese brands in Europe jumped directly from 5.6% in May last year to 10.7%. Doubling in one year isn't growth, it's swallowing whole.

But Europeans lost patience. On July 1, the EU's final anti-subsidy duties on Chinese pure electric vehicles officially took effect — 17.4% for BYD, 18.8% for Geely, 35.3% for SAIC, plus a 10% base tariff, pushing the combined tax rate for some manufacturers above 45%. Tougher still, the EU is brewing to include plug-in hybrids in the tax scope. Over the past year, plug-in hybrids were the core channel for Chinese manufacturers to bypass pure EV tariffs; now they're trying to block all paths. But China is not someone to be trifled with. The Ministry of Commerce immediately issued a final anti-dumping ruling on EU pork, with rates ranging from 4.9% to 19.8% for five years. China is the world's largest pork consumer market; the EU's pig feet, ears, and offal rely entirely on China to digest. This blow targets the vote banks of agricultural states. Countermeasures on cognac and dairy products are also coming. Wine merchants in France's Cognac region are already shaking.

But can tariffs really stop us? The Chinese auto manufacturers' response is simple — build factories right at your doorstep. BYD is building a factory in Hungary to start production next year, Chery is laying out plans in Brazil and Spain, and SAIC is deepening roots in Thailand. If tariffs block prices, I'll just bypass your tariff wall. It's exactly the same script as Japanese automakers frantically built factories in the US after the US imposed tariffs back then. The only difference is that Chinese cars going overseas are faster, larger in volume, and the industrial chain is more complete.

Overall, the slump in the domestic car market forces all brands to go outward, and exports have made up for all the growth lost domestically. But the EU's 45% tariff is just the first hurdle; behind it, the door to the North American market is tightly shut, and the fortress of Japanese cars in Southeast Asia won't be breached in a day. The race for Chinese car exports has shifted from 'grabbing incremental growth' to 'fighting hard battles'. 10 million units is inevitable, but the tariff walls, political barriers, and localization difficulties on the road are getting harder and harder.

Sepetama pertama 2026, eksport kereta China 4.059 juta unit, kenaikan 63% berbanding tahun lalu. Pada kadar pertumbuhan ini, memecahkan 10 juta unit setahun hampir tidak ada keraguan — ketika itu China akan menjadi negara eksport kenderaan pertama di dunia yang memecahkan 10 juta unit setahun, setara dengan 2.5 kali Jepun.

Tetapi satu set data lagi tidak begitu cantik. Januari hingga Mei tahun ini, jualan runcit terkumpul kenderaan penumpang domestik 7.099 juta unit, turun 19.5% berbanding tahun lalu. Dalam lima jenama utama domestik, BYD separuh tahun ini 1.8085 juta unit, turun 15.72%. Pertumbuhan kebanyakannya bergantung pada eksport. Ini bukan kemakmuran, ini 'Rumah lapar, luar rebutan'.

Lihat dulu betapa hebatnya eksport. Chery eksport separuh tahun ini 940,000 unit, menduduki tempat pertama dengan kukuh, peratusan mencecah 74.3% — setiap empat kereta dijual, tiga untuk eksport. BYD 790,000 unit mengikut rapat, Mei sahaja eksport 174,800 unit. Yang paling mengejutkan bukan kuantiti, tetapi arah. Data Mei 31 negara Eropah, BYD, SAIC, Geely, Chery, Leapmotor lima jumlah dijual 138,400 unit, kenaikan 65%, pertama kali mengatasi Toyota, Nissan, Honda enam jumlah kereta Jepun. Kedudukan pasaran jenama China di Eropah dari Mei tahun lalu 5.6% terus berganda kepada 10.7%. Satu tahun berganda dua, bukan pertumbuhan, ini penyerbuan besar.

Tetapi orang Eropah tidak boleh lagi tenang. 1 Julai, cukai anti-subsidi muktamad EU ke atas kenderaan elektrik China mula berkuat kuasa — BYD 17.4%, Geely 18.8%, SAIC 35.3%, ditambah dengan cukai asas 10%, kadar cukai gabungan sebahagian syarikat melebihi 45%. Lebih teruk, EU sedang merancang memasukkan kenderaan hibrid plug-in ke dalam cukai. Tahun lalu hibrid plug-in adalah terusan teras syarikat automotif China mengelakkan cukai EV tulen, ini ingin menyumbat semua laluan. Tetapi China tidak mudah ditakluki. Kementerian Perdagangan memberikan keputusan muktamad anti-dumping daging babi kepada EU, kadar cukai 4.9% hingga 19.8%, lima tahun. China adalah pasaran pemakanan daging babi terbesar di dunia, kaki, telinga, dan organ babi Eropah bergantung kepada China, ini menebus undi wilayah pertanian. Tindakan balas Brandi, produk tenusu sedang dalam laluan. Pengeluar arak di wilayah Cognac Perancis sudah gemetar.

Tetapi adakah cukai ini benar-benar menghalang? Tindakan balas syarikat automotif China mudah — bina kilang sehingga depan pintu anda. BYD bina kilang di Hungary bermula pengeluaran tahun depan, Chery bina di Brazil dan Sepanyol, SAIC fokus di Thailand. Cukai menaikkan harga, saya akan lalui tembok cukai anda. Seperti tahun lalu ketika syarikat automotif Jepun bina kilang di Amerika selepas cukai, skrip sama persis. Satu-satunya perbezaan, kereta China keluar laut lebih laju, lebih besar, rantai pasokan lebih lengkap.

Secara keseluruhannya, pasaran kereta domestik lesu memaksa semua jenama pergi ke luar, eksport memulangkan pertumbuhan yang hilang domestik. Tetapi cukai 45% EU hanyalah gerbang pertama, di hadapan masih pintu pasaran Amerika Utara ditutup rapat, benteng kereta Jepun Asia Tenggara tidak bisa diambil satu hari. Landasan eksport kereta China, sudah berubah daripada merebut pertumbuhan ke perang keras. 10 juta unit adalah wajib, tetapi tembok cukai, halangan politik, kesukaran tempatan, satu lagi keras.