International Energy Agency Electric Vehicle Sales Forecast, 23.4 Million Units, China Accounts for 60% | Auto-First Report

Auto-First | Liu Tianming

China is the largest electric vehicle market. For every ten electric vehicles sold globally, six come from China. China is also the largest electric vehicle manufacturing hub, accounting for nearly 75% of 2025 electric vehicle production. The International Energy Agency wrote in the "2026 Global Electric Vehicle Outlook" that global electric vehicle sales are expected to reach 23.4 million units in 2026, accounting for nearly 30% of global car sales, with China's share reaching 61%.

According to the "2026 Global Electric Vehicle Outlook" released by the International Energy Agency on May 20, 2025 global electric vehicle sales (including BEVs and PHEVs) increased by 20% year-on-year, exceeding 20 million units. This means one in four new cars sold globally is an electric vehicle, and electric vehicle sales hit a record high in nearly 100 countries.

On the sales side, China's electric vehicle sales exceeded 13 million units, maintaining its position as the world's largest electric vehicle market. On the production side, Chinese automakers supplied 60% of global electric vehicle sales. Chinese electric vehicle exports doubled to a record high of over 2.5 million units.

In electric vehicles sold in other parts of the world (excluding China, US, and EU major markets), 55% were imported from China, whereas five years ago this figure was less than 5%. China still holds a dominant position in the electric vehicle supply chain, accounting for over 80% of battery production by 2025, and an even higher share in the production of key electric vehicle battery materials.

Electric vehicle growth in the European market was also significant, with sales increasing by over 30% in 2025 to 4.2 million units, accounting for 28% of all new car sales. Among them, Germany is the largest electric vehicle market in Europe. Driven by policy, sales reached 850,000 units in 2025, up 50% year-on-year, with a market penetration rate of 30%. Norway is the market with the highest electric vehicle penetration rate globally, with 97% of new car sales being electric vehicles in 2025. Turkey is the market with the fastest electric vehicle growth in Europe; sales more than doubled compared to 2024, reaching nearly 240,000 units.

Due to reduced electric vehicle incentives, electric vehicle sales in the US market dropped significantly, reaching approximately 1.5 million units in 2025, slightly lower than 2024.

Outside the major markets of China, US, and Europe, electric vehicle sales reached 2 million units in 2025, up nearly 50% from the same period last year. The International Energy Agency pointed out that this nearly 50% growth was mainly attributed to sales growth in emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) excluding China.

The vast majority of electric vehicle supply in emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) excluding China comes from China. For example, three-quarters of electric vehicle sales in the Thailand market in 2025 were Chinese brands, and Chinese imported electric vehicles accounted for 80% of the Malaysia market. Additionally, in Brazil, Mexico, and the Central Asia region, the share of Chinese electric vehicles exceeded 85%.

The "2026 Global Electric Vehicle Outlook" forecasts trends for the global electric vehicle market in 2026 and 2035. Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency, stated that the decline in battery prices and potential policy responses to the current global energy crisis will provide further momentum for the electric vehicle market.

It is expected that global electric vehicle sales will reach 23.4 million units in 2026, accounting for nearly 30% of global car sales. Among them, China's sales are expected to reach 14.3 million units, up 8.33% year-on-year; Europe's sales are expected to reach 5 million units, up 19.05% year-on-year; US sales are expected to be 1.2 million units, down 20% year-on-year; and sales in other countries and regions are 2.9 million units, up 45% year-on-year. Regarding electric vehicle products, comprehensive automaker plans expect the number of global electric vehicle models in 2026 to break through 1,100, an increase of about 15%. Pure electric vehicle models account for about 65% of the total electric vehicle models.

With the accumulation of overseas inventory, Chinese electric vehicle exports are expected to face headwinds in 2026. According to 2025 data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, electric vehicle exports exceeded overseas sales by more than 25%, indicating a significant increase in overseas inventory, which may limit additional shipment volumes. At the same time, rapidly changing trade policies may also be another obstacle to Chinese electric vehicle exports in 2026.

The "2026 Global Electric Vehicle Outlook" emphasizes that despite the impact of overseas inventory growth and trade policy shifts on Chinese electric vehicle exports, the momentum of Chinese electric vehicle exports will continue. The overseas sales targets of China's top ten automakers will exceed 7 million, approaching China's total automobile export volume in 2025.

With electric vehicles becoming increasingly cost-competitive in key markets, even without new incentive policies, by 2035 the global stock of electric vehicles (excluding two- and three-wheelers) is expected to surge from the current nearly 80 million to 510 million, with a market penetration rate reaching around 50%, and China and European market penetration rates reaching 90%. The International Energy Agency emphasized that by 2035, China will still be the world's largest electric vehicle producer, and more than one-quarter (6 million units) of electric vehicles sold in developed economies will be made in China.

(Head image generated by AI)