Domestic Sales Cool Down, Exports Surge Past 10 Million! Is Globalization the Survival Bottom Line for Chinese Automakers?

In the first half of 2026, auto sales broke the 15 million mark, and exports are becoming an important growth point.

Data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) shows, the monthly auto export volume broke 1 million in June for the first time; from January to June, cumulative auto exports reached 5.096 million, a year-on-year increase of 65.3%, achieving over 5 million in semi-annual exports for the first time. Regarding the annual trend, CAAM remains cautiously optimistic, with full-year exports expected to break 10 million.

In contrast to the frantic expansion overseas, the domestic market can simply be described as bleak. NIO Li Bin called for the industry to prepare for a 15%-20% year-on-year decline in domestic auto retail volume for the full year of 2026. Data shows that the first half of the year became the most prominent feature of the car market: "strong exports, weak domestic sales." Automakers that fail to achieve a global layout in the future will find it difficult to withstand market cycle fluctuations.

1

Auto Exports Exceed Domestic Sales for Some Manufacturers

The domestic auto market is undergoing a deep adjustment. In the first half of the year, auto production and sales reached 14.993 million and 15.017 million respectively, down 4% and 4.1% year-on-year respectively. Against this backdrop, exports became the key engine driving the growth of China's auto industry, and also brought high-speed growth to auto exports after two years of adjustment.

Looking specifically. In June, auto exports were 1.037 million, increasing 11.6% month-on-month and 75.1% year-on-year, with monthly export volume breaking 1 million for the first time. From January to June, auto exports were 5.096 million, up 65.3% year-on-year. More noteworthy is the structural change—the share of export sales in total production has climbed to 39.34%. This means that for every 10 cars produced domestically, nearly 4 are heading to overseas docks.

Against this backdrop, multiple automakers saw overseas market performance hit new highs.

Among them, Chery Group ranked first with export performance of 943,800, a 71.5% year-on-year increase, with overseas sales accounting for more than 70%. This automaker that has long cultivated the overseas market, exported 191,000 units in June alone, a 79.7% year-on-year increase. A more milestone signal is that Chery's cumulative exports have officially broken the 6.78 million mark.

Not just Chery, the current growth momentum of the entire Chinese auto market comes from overseas market export performance. BYD: Overseas exports 789,400, accounting for 43% of total sales; going overseas has become an important certain link; SAIC Motor Group: exported 735,000 in the first half of the year, up 48.7% year-on-year; Since Chen Jiacai took charge of GAC International 8 months ago, GAC Group's overseas offensive speed has significantly accelerated, exporting 121,000 in the first half of the year, up 132% year-on-year, close to last year's full-year level.

Putting the export data of these automakers together, a clear trend can be seen: the overseas market is becoming the core pillar driving the overall growth of automakers. Especially against the backdrop of domestic market demand peaking, profit pressure, and fierce competition, the overseas market has officially upgraded from "incremental supplement" to "core growth pole." It can be said that the more intense the domestic market competition, the stronger the urgency for Chinese automakers to go overseas.

2

Trade Barriers Are an Inescapable Reality

The deep reasons supporting this wave of export explosion are timing, location, and people. First is timing—the global auto industry is transforming towards electrification; second is location—the Chinese auto industry chain is resilient; third is people—independent brand enterprises are working hard. Overall, China's auto going global is at the best time, and presenting a good situation of "blooming in multiple points globally."

In 2023 and 2024, Russia has always been China's number one auto export destination. But looking at the past two years, China's export volume to Russia has declined. In the first five months of this year, Brazil surpassed Russia, becoming China's number one passenger car export market. In addition, the UK, Australia, and Mexico follow closely behind.

Above the top ten overseas markets, the UK, Belgium, and Italy are all located in Europe. In the competitive landscape of the EU auto market, Chinese independent brands have gradually become stronger. In May this year, five Chinese automakers—BYD, SAIC, Geely, Chery, and Leapmotor—sold a total of 138,400 units in Europe, an increase of over 60% year-on-year, while Japanese automakers' sales were 130,000 units, down 3%. Chinese autos surpassed Japan in the European market for the first time, with a market share reaching 12.01%.

Being able to enter Europe shows that our products can already meet the needs of consumers in developed countries, further proving the increasingly solid overseas competitive strength of China's auto industry. However, the hidden realistic challenges behind the high-speed development are equally impossible to ignore. For example, the EU is building walls, Brazil is raising taxes, Thailand is tightening, and the US is blocking. Global major auto markets are all setting up barriers for Chinese cars. The overseas expansion path of Chinese automakers is still full of challenges.

But Chinese automakers' response is much faster than expected, and they are laying out overseas strategies based on their own situations. Including Chery, BYD, Geely, etc., all set up production bases, R&D centers, and service networks overseas. Meanwhile, GAC Group announced plans to deploy 242 fast-charging stations in Brazil before 2030. The overseas competition of Chinese automakers is no longer just about selling cars, but starting to compete on who can truly stay locally, moving towards true globalization management.

Monthly exports breaking 1 million, 5.096 million vehicles exported in the first half of the year—not only is this a beautiful report card, but also a real breakthrough for Made in China in the global market. This year's 10 million export goal is also within reach, but more important than numbers is whether Chinese autos can establish sustainable competitiveness in the global market. In the future, China's auto globalization will enter the deep water zone, competing no longer on short-term sales, but on long-term systemic capability and global operational wisdom.