Exports Exceed 5 Million Units, Where is the Next Trend for China's Automotive Industry? Detailed Analysis of Three Potential Markets

The pace of the Chinese automotive industry going global has been faster than anyone anticipated.

On July 9, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers revealed H1 data: In June alone, Chinese auto exports reached 1.037 million units, a 75.1% year-on-year increase, achieving single-month exports over 1 million for the first time; from January to June, cumulative exports hit 5.096 million units, a 65.3% year-on-year increase, and semi-annual exports broke through 5 million units for the first time.

The full-year export target of 7.4 million units set at the beginning of the year now appears too conservative. Based on current growth rates, achieving 10 million units in full-year exports has become a high-probability event. However, beyond the breakthrough in sales figures, the structural changes behind them are worth more attention. Domestic car sales for the first half of the year were only 9.921 million units, a 21.1% year-on-year decrease, while exports accounted for nearly 40% of passenger car production.

In this magnificent wave of going global, which companies are leading the pack? Which models are selling the best? Which markets are the main drivers for growth? Where is the next trend?

Overview of Company Exports

With the continuous surge in the scale of going global, the overseas layout of domestic automakers has differentiated into clear tiers, with the top tier forming a pattern of "one dominant leader and multiple strong contenders".

Chery Group sat firmly in the top spot with a H1 export figure of 943,800 units, up 71.5% year-on-year. Notably, Chery's exports accounted for 69.5% of its total sales, and for three consecutive months from April to June, overseas sales share exceeded 70%. June single-month overseas sales reached an all-time high of 191,000 units. For every car sold domestically, Chery sold nearly three overseas, showing that exports have become Chery's absolute primary growth pole.

Following closely, BYD delivered a H1 export performance of 789,000 units, up 71% year-on-year, with June single-month exports reaching 170,900 units alone. Especially in the new energy export niche, BYD's advantage is more obvious. In the first half of the year, new energy exports reached 769,300 units, with a market share as high as 34.5%. In other words, for every three exported new energy vehicles, nearly one was a BYD.

Geely Automobile was the most eye-catching dark horse in terms of growth rate: Exporting 474,200 units in the first half of the year, up 158% year-on-year, with a growth rate leading among top automakers; June overseas sales broke 100,000 units for the first time, reaching 102,900 units. In terms of new energy exports, Geely's increase was even more stunning, with H1 new energy exports reaching 275,400 units, surging 601.4% year-on-year.

SAIC, relying on its well-perfect multi-brand globalization matrix, also remains firmly in the first tier. Overseas wholesale sales in the first half of the year reached 735,000 units. Its MG brand has cultivated the European market for many years and has ranked first in Chinese brand sales in Europe for 11 consecutive years. Great Wall Motor has steadily progressed overseas pacing, with H1 exports of 291,400 units, up 47.4% year-on-year, and the overseas market maintained stable expansion.

From the perspective of niche sectors, the competition landscape of new energy exports reflects the strength of each company more. In the top 10 list of new energy export manufacturers in the first half of the year, BYD firmly stayed in the first place, with Chery and Geely in second and third place, corresponding new energy export volumes of 290,300 units and 275,400 units respectively. Following them were Tesla China, SAIC Passenger Car, Leapmotor, Dongfeng, SAIC-GM-Wuling, Changan, and XPeng. Among them, Leapmotor's overseas breakthrough was particularly eye-catching. H1 overseas sales neared 100,000 units, exceeding its own total overseas sales for all of 2025 in just half a year.

Another worth mentioning is that in May 2026, across 31 European markets, BYD, SAIC, Geely, Chery, and Leapmotor, these five Chinese automakers sold a total of 138,400 new cars, up 65% year-on-year. Total sales for the first time exceeded the sum of six Japanese automakers such as Toyota and Nissan. The market share of Chinese brands locally jumped from 5.6% in May of the previous year to 10.7%. This was the first time Chinese automakers hit it out head-on against Japanese rivals in Europe, the world's third-largest automotive market.

Model Breakthrough and Market Map

The success or failure of going global ultimately depends on market acceptance. Focusing eyes from automaker tiers to specific models, from the disclosed market model performance, the outline of hit models is already very clear.

BYD Song Plus is the undisputed star model in the current export camp. In the first half of 2025, it topped the export model list with 134,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 184%; entering 2026, its overseas deployment pace accelerated further, continuously stocking from Southeast Asia to Western Europe, opening the situation with balanced design, extremely low usage costs, and accessible pricing, and is very likely to become the first true "Global Car" among Chinese brands.

From the technology route perspective, emerging markets such as Latin America and Southeast Asia focus on price-performance ratio, with 100,000 yuan range compact pure electric vehicles being the most popular; mature markets such as Europe are more accepting of plug-in hybrid SUVs in the 150,000-200,000 yuan price range under the influence of policies and usage habits. The pattern of pure electric and plug-in hybrid double line breakthrough is very clear.

Meanwhile, the more critical change is in price and technology. China's automotive export is accelerating from the old model of "low-price volume sales" to a leap of "value-based globalization". Zeekr's average export price per vehicle in the first half of the year approached 350,000 yuan, and there are plans to launch high-end models with a starting price exceeding 460,000 yuan overseas; Denza, Yangwang, and other high-end brands have also achieved simultaneous volume and price increases overseas. Intelligence is becoming the "new business card" for China's automotive export—Chery was the first to pass the EU UN/ECE R171 safety management system audit, equivalent to obtaining a "technical pass" for high-level intelligent driving export.

Turning eyes to the overall market map again, according to data from Gasgoo Automotive Research Institute, from January to May 2026, Brazil topped the list of China's passenger car export markets for the first time with an export volume of 372,000 units and a 178.7% year-on-year growth rate; Russia followed closely with 351,000 units and a 139.8% growth rate. These two markets alone contributed more than 40% of the top ten total.

Among them, Brazil's explosive growth was behind a special background: starting July 1, 2026, local new energy vehicle import tariffs will rise from 25% to 35%, causing dealers to focus on抢运 in the first half of the year, pushing up shipment volumes. However, even if the short-term window closes, as the largest economy in Latin America, Brazil's long-term consumption potential remains solid.

The European market showed a situation of multiple points blooming: The UK ranked third with 189,000 units and 82% growth, Belgium, Italy, and Spain recorded export volumes of 156,000, 123,000, and 94,000 units respectively, with Italy's year-on-year increase reaching 140.7%. If Russia is included, the entire Europe has occupied half of China's passenger car exports.

However, under high growth, hidden worries are also showing: UAE export volume decreased by 32.6% year-on-year, and Mexico's drop reached 40%. The former is an adjustment period after high-speed growth, and the latter is directly impacted by the tariff hike in January this year. This also means that going global is no longer a blue ocean with everywhere growth. Tariff policy fluctuations and market cycle rotation shocks will always be normal variables the industry needs to face directly.

Where is the Next Trend?

In the market map of hot and cold differentiation, combined with H1 data trends and policy movements, there are three markets most likely to become the incremental core for the next stage of China's automotive exports.

The first worth mentioning is Brazil. Although new energy vehicle tariffs rose to 35% from July 1st and the short-term rush window is closed, this does not mean the end of market dividends. As the largest economy in Latin America, Brazil's automotive electrification has just started, and Chinese brands have laid the initial user perception with price-performance ratio and product power.

More critically, automakers like Chery have already established production capacity layout locally. Localized production can become a handle to bypass tariff barriers and deeply penetrate the market. Next, competition in the Brazil market will no longer be a simple comparison of export volumes, but a contest of localized operation depth.

The second trend belongs to Europe, which is the most contradictory yet most certain battlefield. The EU's anti-subsidy tariffs on Chinese pure electric vehicles have been in effect for nearly two years. Some automakers' comprehensive tax rates have exceeded 45%. At the moment, they are also brewing to include plug-in hybrid models into the tax scope, and the tariff wall seems to be getting higher and higher. But the actual trend is exactly the opposite: In May 2026, the market share of Chinese brands in Europe had surpassed Japanese automakers.

The more control, the more growth. The logic behind this is: The comprehensive advantages formed by Chinese new energy vehicles in 800V high-voltage platforms, integrated die-casting, self-developed batteries, and other technologies, just filled the supply gap during the global electrification transition period.

Tariffs will temporarily raise costs and compress profits, but cannot reverse product-side advantages. That is why top automakers are accelerating to respond to tariff barriers with localization: BYD's Hungary factory is expected to start whole vehicle assembly in the fourth quarter of 2026. Chery's joint venture factory in Barcelona, Spain achieved mass production by the end of 2025. The new M1 production line officially started production in June this year. "Trading localization for market" is the strategy currently consensus among automakers on the European battlefield.

And the third potential trend is Southeast Asia, traditionally regarded as the "backyard" of Japanese brands. From January to May, Malaysia ranked tenth in export destination countries with 78,599 units of export volume. This volume is not particularly outstanding, but the signal revealed behind is extremely strong: The Southeast Asian market has long been monopolized by Japanese brands. Now Chinese brands have torn a gap here.

SAIC MG has cultivated Thailand for many years and laid the foundation. Leapmotor plans to land European local production through Stellantis's Spain factory. As RCEP tariff dividends continue to be released, this region is very likely to become the next explosive growth point following Europe. Especially countries that have launched new energy vehicle incentive policies such as Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, etc.

Overall, the H1 export figure of 5.096 million units marks that China's automotive export has moved from testing the waters to the stage of harvest. But a clearer signal is that the competitive logic of the second half of the game has changed. Tariff barriers, geopolitical fluctuations, localized operations, every level is a hard battle.

As Chen Shihua, Secretary-General of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, said, export for the second half of the year should be maintained with "cautious optimism". But without a doubt, Chinese car brands have already stood at the center of the global stage. From "going out" to "going in" and then to "going up", this industry's deep reform has just opened the curtain.