State Takes Early Action to Curb Overseas "Involution"; Will Chinese Automakers' Overseas Strategies "Change"?

Officially singled out "frequent price cuts", warning against excessive price competition in overseas markets. Behind this lies not just the profit account, but the image account of China's automotive industry overseas.

Specifically regarding policy implementation, on September 1, 2026, the Ministry of Commerce, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and State Administration for Market Regulation jointly issued the "Guidelines for Overseas Competition Behavior and Compliance Construction in the Automotive Industry". The content regarding pricing is worth noting. The document points out that when enterprises formulate suggested retail prices overseas, they should set clear price gradients for different vehicle configurations, avoiding "affecting the interests and brand image of overseas consumers due to frequent and significant price fluctuations".

The "knock" meaning in this sentence is obvious, referring to the "price cut actions" that everyone is very familiar with in recent years. As for why the official needs to single out such behavior so seriously, perhaps we can see a clue from relevant data. Relevant data shows that in 2025, China's automobile exports reached 8.32 million units, sold to more than 200 countries and regions, and remained first in the world for consecutive years. In the first seven months of this year, the export volume reported by the General Administration of Customs reached 6.399 million units, a year-on-year increase of 53.7%, and breaking through 10 million units for the whole year seems to be inevitable.

The ceiling of scale is visibly rising, but the profit situation is like a bucket of cold water. According to Wind data, the total net profit attributable to owners of 289 listed automotive manufacturing companies in the first half of the year was 56.531 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 25.74%, with the profit margin of complete vehicle manufacturing falling to 1.5%, a record low in nearly 10 years.

When the industry begins to show a situation where more sold means less earned, it indicates that something has deviated from the normal track. In other words, this is no longer a situation that can be explained by simple exchange rates and tariff factors. The three departments singled out "frequent price cuts", indicating that the official side has seen the bookkeeping problems; in essence, it is still a guide for the long-term survival of Chinese automakers overseas.

The "Profit Account" of Overseas Price Cuts, Calculated Clearly by Three Departments

The three departments singled out "frequent price cuts", most likely having calculated a financial account clearly, that is, sales volume and profits are moving further and further apart. Even BYD, a top representative with relatively thick profits among independent brands, also has such a situation. Let's look at a set of data. In the first half of 2026, BYD sold 789,400 units overseas, a year-on-year surge of 67.9%, and the proportion of overseas sales rose from about 24% year-on-year last year to 44%. According to Orient Securities' calculation, BYD's overseas business gross margin in the first half of the year was 28.4%, while domestic was only 17%. As a sample automaker going overseas, BYD's sales and profit calculation data are both quite good.

But another layer of reality is that BYD's single car revenue is also declining. According to the same Orient Securities statistics, compared with the first half of 2025, BYD's overseas single car revenue decreased by 16,000 yuan. These two sets of data seem contradictory, but there is actually a certain "logical rationality". Why say this?

The "involution" of the Chinese automotive market has not disappeared because of going overseas. This has led to a phenomenon: on one hand, the proportion of overseas sales has surged; on the other hand, the single car revenue is declining. Some developing well automakers went overseas, propping up gross margins with high-value models. But the more and more low-price models were pushed overseas, also leading to the situation of the average price going down. When the main force of exports expands from Dolphin, Yuan Plus such medium-to-high-end models to more low-price product lines, the premium that the overseas market should belong to the brand is being thinned step by step.

Of course, this is not a problem faced by a certain automaker. Looking through the first half-year financial reports, many automakers that are heavily going overseas are experiencing such a situation. Chery's net foreign exchange loss was 2.092 billion yuan; Geely's net foreign exchange gain from the same period last year of 2.64 billion yuan was directly turned into this year's 550 million yuan net loss; Great Wall Motor had a net foreign exchange gain of 1.493 billion yuan in the first half of last year, but this year after deducting hedging locks, it actually lost 266 million yuan; Leapmotor delivered 356,000 units for half a year, a year-on-year increase of 60.8%, sitting at the top of the new force sales list, but calculated down, the single car net profit was less than 600 yuan, and the annual profit guidance was down from 5 billion yuan to 3 billion yuan.

These data mean that overseas market competition problems have begun to show. Those overseas shares won by price are being transferred in the form of profits. The selling price goes down, the gross margin goes down, and stacked with exchange rate fluctuations, the book profit will eventually become a big problem. "Avoid affecting overseas consumer interests and brand image due to frequent and significant price fluctuations" reflects the concerns of relevant departments.

The Impact Behind Price Cuts, The Whole Industry Has to Pay For It

Thinking deeper, the concerns of the three departments might not only because they calculated the profit account. If looking at it from the perspective of long-term industry development, the coverage of "frequent price cuts" and "overseas involution" is far wider than we imagine. Automobiles are different from ordinary consumer goods. Sun Xiaohong, former Secretary-General of the Automotive Internationalization Professional Committee of the China Machinery Industry Import and Export Chamber of Commerce, explained it clearly: "Overseas markets attach great importance to vehicle residual value and the usage cost of the vehicle's full lifecycle. Frequent and excessive price cuts will make consumers worried about the future residual value preservation of the vehicle, bringing a series of negative effects."

Users who just picked up the car, the next foot sees the official hanging lower prices, value retention shrinks accordingly, this is very easy to trigger users' negative emotions. If it evolves into complaints, rights protection and bad reviews, it may eventually backfire on the brand. This is not groundless worries, currently there have already been some negative cases. For example, in the Thailand market, some domestic automakers continued to cut prices in Thailand, making the dissatisfaction of car-buying users rise, and Thai public institutions also launched investigations on this.

This is just the backlash at the public opinion level; if dissatisfaction intensifies, this may cause worse results. Now, Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia are tightening electric vehicle import thresholds synchronously on their own, with localized production and technology transfer as conditions. Clearly, this chain reaction will not affect just a certain automaker. Dissatisfaction from users who have purchased, fermentation of local public opinion, investigation by public institutions, government tightening of import policies, will lead to the entire industry's entry threshold rising. In the end, for this one enterprise's price cut, it is all Chinese brands operating locally who have to pay.

As Shi Yonghong, Vice President of the China Machinery Industry Import and Export Chamber of Commerce said: "Overseas market regulations are scattered, involving safety, environmental protection, data, carbon emissions, supply chain due diligence, etc. The issuance of the 'Guidelines' will help guide enterprises to rationally choose target markets, avoid low-price competition, channel conflict, gray operations, and maintain the overall image of China's automobiles."

The person in charge of the Department of Outbound Investment and Economic Cooperation of the Ministry of Commerce, when interpreting, summarized the intention of this guidance into three points: highlight public service attributes, highlight practical application orientation, highlight win-win cooperation concepts. Falling into policy intentions, what the three ministries truly worry about is not whether a certain enterprise sells expensive or cheap, but whether disorderly price competition will make the four words "China Automobile" become a "negative label" internationally. How to make competition no longer disorderly? Of course, this question still has to be answered with the three words "high quality".

Great Wall Motor Chairman Wei Jianjun said, "Going out of quality is part of high-quality opening up, to bring long-term stable, reliable products and services to overseas consumers". He believes that enterprises going out should respect other countries' legal cultures, bringing taxes and employment to local areas. Talking about price, in the People's Daily Client "Ask the Way" column, he once spoke directly: "If I keep reducing costs, I cannot guarantee the quality of the car."

Now the development of China's automotive industry has changed from past to present. When export scale surges to 10 million units, any individual disorder will be amplified multiple times, the official must set the rules before credit is damaged.

No Price Floor, Cannot Obtain Real Share

Of course, we do not want to convey the viewpoint that "price cuts are wrong". Objectively speaking, price cuts themselves are not wrong, but if price cuts are taken as the only means of competition, then the overseas road will not go far, and real share cannot be obtained. To put it more simply, for Chinese automakers going overseas to last long, having pricing power is very important. How to have this ability? It depends on whose products have something special.

To stabilize prices, win by things outside of price, there are three dimensions of performance that are very key. One is technical differences. Technology is a barrier that can be directly perceived by users. If we can pull gaps in terms of range, safety, intelligence, etc., with powerful technical strength, we can maintain the price floor, rather than rolling down together with opponents.

Two is price stability. This is also a credit impression overseas. Chinese automakers going overseas need to open up the situation with "contract spirit" and "long-termism". Falling into operations, it is stable prices, stable products, stable services, stable expectations. A brand that frequently adjusts prices, users dare not buy now, dealers dare not stock up now, this uncertainty itself is a cost.

Three is local service network. This determines whether overseas users can be assured about the brand, and is also the decisive factor for whether automakers can maintain the price floor. If we can do well in maintenance, parts, residual value, second-hand circulation after selling cars, people's stickiness to the brand will be higher. When the after-sales system is laid out dense enough, price will not be the only selling point.

The "muscle memory" formed in intense involution in the domestic market, when it comes to overseas, will eventually have to relearn the rules. After all, there are no subsidies to support the bottom, nor infinite price war space there. In overseas, possessing the determination to establish prices is the core strategy for long-term survival.

Conclusion

Markets won by low prices are actually not stable. The four words "Made in China" cannot be labeled with "dumping" and "cheap". The purpose of the three departments' guidance is not to ban price cuts, nor to halt going overseas. It only puts a long-ignored fact on the table. Now, policies have drawn clear boundaries for Chinese automakers. Automakers used to "price involution", it is also time to make choices that conform to the guidance.