In one month, 19,000 units vanished out of thin air.

Roughly calculating based on AITO's average transaction price of over 300,000 yuan, this represents over 6 billion yuan in revenue, gone just like that.

This is Seres' August report card: NEV sales of 24,244 units, a year-over-year drop of 43.96%.

Yet, hidden in the same table is a contradictory situation — the all-new AITO M9, a major player with an average price of 600,000, delivered over 30,000 units cumulatively in 12 weeks! It sat at the number one sales spot in the 500,000-price-segment market for two consecutive months.

Premium sales are getting better, yet the total volume collapsed by 40%. Putting these two numbers together is where the most significant aspect to consider lies in this decline in August.

So what exactly happened to AITO? Is it really in trouble?

My view: Don't rush to predict doom, nor rush to find excuses for it. This stumble is half because it stood too high last year, and half because Huawei stores no longer have AITO as the sole prime spot — and AITO happened to catch the timing between old models phasing out and new ones not yet arriving.

First, the most practical point: That number from last year was inherently abnormal

Year-over-year data is easiest to deceive with. It compares not how much was sold this year, but how much less was sold this year compared to last.

That summer in 2025, the AITO M8 EV version exploded in orders upon launch. The entire August saw AITO M8 EV and Extended Range models sell over 20,000 units in one month, forcibly pulling the whole brand onto a high stage. When you jump down from a two-meter-high platform, the drop in landing is naturally significant.

Change the calculation and it becomes clear: Seres cumulative sales from January to August reached 227,250 units, down 12.58% year-over-year. Single month down 40%, cumulative down over 10%. These two numbers together show the true water level — the drop mainly hit the base number.

This month of August, AITO was exactly stuck in the gap of gear shifting

Few have fully explained this layer of reason, but it is the most crucial.

Look at AITO's current product lineup and it becomes clear: The old M7 is at the end of its lifecycle, sales were naturally declining; M8 is in the middle of a facelift switch, old stock cleared out, new version not yet selling, the channel is basically empty; M9's Ultimate Lingshi Long Wheelbase version was announced for a long time, ready for delivery only by the end of August, people wanting to buy are clutching money waiting.

The old are exiting, the new haven't arrived, this month in between is a vacuum.

AITO M6 is considered the most volume-capable model at the moment, with cumulative deliveries already breaking 50,000 units. But it alone cannot fill the hole left by M7 plus M8.

So in the 43.96%, there is indeed a part that was a choice — rather than letting old cars exit gracefully, it wouldn't do the cosmetic change clearance sale routine. But this layer only explains one-third.

The rest requires looking one level higher

HarmonyOS Intelligent Solution now has five brands. Last year when there were three brands, the best booths in Huawei stores and the first recommendation from sales staff were basically reserved for AITO. Now it's different: Shangjie Z7 starts from 219,800, Luxeed V9 sells up from 389,800. Stores are that size, foot traffic is that amount, sales staff only have that much time per day.

Numerical data confirms this. AITO's sales share within HarmonyOS Intelligent Solution dropped from 69.64% in the first half of last year to 67.19% this year. It only looks like a drop of two percentage points, but this happened under the premise that the other four brands were all pushing new cars — the pie got bigger, but AITO's slice didn't grow with it.

There is a colder fact: August saw HarmonyOS Intelligent Solution full-series deliveries of 42,101 units, also down 5.56% year-over-year. It's not just AITO pulling back. Meanwhile, Leapmotor delivered 356,500 units in the first half with a 60% increase year-over-year, Nio delivered 191,100 units with a 67.4% increase, and HarmonyOS Intelligent Solution only grew by 18.6% in the first half.

Huawei's technical label was once a river exclusive to AITO. Now this river is used together by the five brands across two environments.

The financials are actually still strong

After discussing the pressure, we must also talk about the confidence, otherwise it becomes predicting doom.

M9 has truly stood firm: Winning the sales crown in the 500,000-price-segment market for two consecutive months, full-series cumulative deliveries breaking 300,000 units, ranking first on the J.D. Power NPS list five times consecutively. Selling nearly 10,000 units per month at prices over 500,000, few domestic brands can achieve this, and it's not achieved by price cuts.

The money is enough. As of June 30, Seres sits on 73.15 billion yuan in cash reserves; R&D investment in the first half was 7.007 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 34.8%. Selling fewer units, R&D investment instead becomes more aggressive — indicating management has figured it out: Short-term volume can be lost, but the technical rhythm must not break. Magic Cube Technology Platform 2.0, next-generation Super Extended Range, Intelligent Safety are the tools to make a living in the next three years.

There are hard indicators on the brand front. In the Brand Finance 2026 Top 100 Global Automotive Brand Values, AITO, valued at $3.448 billion, is the only Chinese face in the Global Luxury Brand TOP 10. This position cannot be exchanged for a monthly sales volume of tens of thousands.

Overseas is also not idle: Indonesia factory 100,000 unit capacity baseline, Middle East secured the first batch of 200 units orders, overseas selling price is higher than domestic by a chunk. This move is still early, but the direction is right.

So is it viable?

My judgment is: Short-term pain exists, it is too early to conclude now, but there are two checkpoints that cannot be glossed over.

The first is if the facelifted M8 launches in September, whether it can pick up sales, directly testing if the "gear shifting" argument holds water. If it returns to over 30,000 units, August was just a small pit; if sales continue to be sluggish, the problem is not just gear shifting.

The second is the Fourth Quarter. AITO first-half sales were about 160,800 units, up 5.6% year-over-year, the annual goal of 500,000 units, the completion rate is about 32%. To make up for this gap, sales of models under the brand need to maintain high growth.

This industry is a marathon not a sprint, this is correct. But those who have run a marathon know — you can adjust breathing midway, but your pace cannot drop too hard, otherwise it is hard to catch up later. And Seres' problem now is likely a midway adjustment, not failing to keep up with market development, but Seres actively adjusting the new-old model transition in a rhythmic pattern. So we believe it will catch up soon.

Dalam satu bulan, hilang 19,000 unit secara mendadak.

Berdasarkan purata harga transaksi AITO lebih dari 300,000, ini adalah pendapatan lebih 6 bilion, hilang begitu sahaja.

Inilah keputusan Seres pada bulan Ogos: jualan kenderaan baharu elektrik 24,244 unit, penurunan tahun ke tahun 43.96%.

Tetapi dalam jadual yang sama, terdapat satu perkara yang kontradiktif — AITO M9 generasi baharu, raksasa dengan purata harga 600,000, jumlah hantaran kumulatif 12 minggu melampaui 30,000 unit! Menduduki tempat jualan pasaran kelas 500,000 selama dua bulan berturut-turut.

High-end semakin baik, jumlah keseluruhan runtuh empat persepuluh. Dua nombor ini diletakkan bersama, inilah tempat paling bernilai untuk dicicipi dalam penurunan Ogos ini.

Jadi apakah masalah AITO? Adakah ia benar-benar tidak boleh lagi?

Pandangan saya: Jangan tergesa-gesa meramalkan kemalangan, jangan tergesa-gesa mencari alasan untuknya. Jatuh ini, separuh kerana tahun lalu berdiri terlalu tinggi, separuh kerana ruang utama Huawei tidak lagi hanya milik AITO — dan AITO bertembung dengan celah kereta lama menarik diri, kereta baru belum sampai.

Perkara pertama yang paling nyata: Nombor tahun lalu, secara asasnya tidak normal

Perbandingan tahun ke tahun paling mudah menipu. Ia tidak membandingkan berapa dijual tahun ini, tetapi berapa kurang tahun ini berbanding tahun lalu.

Musim panas 2025 itu, AITO M8 Edisi Elektrik baru keluar dan meletup, seluruh bulan Ogos AITO M8 Edisi Elektrik dan Model Range Extension boleh jual lebih 20,000 sebulan, menarik keseluruhan jenama ke atas pentas tinggi. Kamu melompat dari atas platform dua meter, jurang mendarat tentu besar.

Gunakan kalkulasi lain lebih jelas: Seres Januari hingga Ogos kumulatif 227,250 unit, penurunan tahun ke tahun 12.58%. Penurunan bulanan empat persepuluh, kumulatif menurun lebih satu persepuluh. Dua nombor ini diletakkan bersama adalah paras air sebenar — tebasan itu, utama memotong pada asas.

Bulan Ogos ini, AITO tepat berada di celah peralihan gear

Sebab lapisan ini sedikit orang menjelaskan, tetapi ia paling penting.

Lihat jadual produk AITO sekarang dan faham: M7 lama berjalan ke hujung kitaran hayat, jualan secara semula jadi kembali; M8 sedang menyesuaikan peralihan model lama, bekas lama kosongkan gudang, model baru belum jual, di laluan saluran adalah kosong; M9 Ultimate Edisi Panjang Panggilan Lama, ke hujung Ogos baru sediakan hantaran, yang mahu beli pegang wang menunggu.

Lama diundur, baru belum sampai, satu bulan di tengah ini adalah vakum.

AITO M6 dianggap bibit yang paling boleh jual sekarang, sudah kumulatif hantaran melampaui 50,000 unit. Tetapi dia seorang, tidak boleh isi lubang yang ditinggalkan M7 tambah M8.

Jadi dalam 43.96%, memang ada sebahagian dipilih sendiri — lebih rela kereta lama menarik diri dengan tenang, tidak mahu lakukan set pembersihan gudang ganti kulit. Tetapi lapisan ini, hanya terangkan sepertiga.

Baki, perlu naik ke lapisan lebih atas

HarmonyOS Intelligent Driving sekarang ada lima AITO. Tahun lalu masih tiga AITO, ketika itu, stan terbaik di pintu masuk Huawei, ayat pertama cadangan penjual, hampir semua留给 AITO. Sekarang lain: Shangjie Z7 mula dari 219,800, Luxeed V9 jual 389,800 dan ke atas. Pintu masuk sebesar itu, aliran pelanggan begitu banyak, penjual satu hari hanya begitu masa.

Nombor boleh mengesahkan. Bahagian jualan AITO dalaman HarmonyOS Intelligent Driving, dari separuh tahun pertama tahun lalu 69.64% tergelincir ke tahun ini 67.19%. Melihat hanya jatuh dua mata, tetapi ini berlaku dalam keadaan empat AITO baki semua dalam tawaran model baru — plat dibesarkan, bahagian AITO tidak ikut tumbuh.

Ada lapisan lagi fakta sejuk: Ogos HarmonyOS Intelligent Driving semua serah 42,101 unit, tahun ke tahun juga jatuh 5.56%. Bukan AITO sahaja yang mundur. Sementara itu Leapmotor separuh tahun hantaran 356,500 unit, tahun ke tahun naik enam persepuluh, Nio 191,100 unit, naik 67.4%, HarmonyOS Intelligent Driving separuh tahun hanya naik 18.6%.

Tenaga label Huawei, dulu AITO eksklusif satu sungai. Sekarang sungai ini, lima AITO dua keadaan bersama guna.

Buku akaun sebenarnya masih tebal

Tekanan habis disebut, juga perlu sebut modal, kalau tidak jadi meramalkan kemalangan.

M9 benar-benar berdiri: dua bulan berturut-turut menang juara pasaran kelas 500,000, kumulatif hantaran seluruh siri melampaui 300,000 unit, dalam senarai NPS Jielan Road lima kali berturut-turut nombor satu. Harga lebih dari 500,000 masih jualan bulanan hampir 10,000, jenama tempatan tidak ramai yang buat, dan bukan ditukar harga.

Uang cukup dibelanjakan. Hingga 30 Jun, Seres atas buku tidur 731.5 bilion yuan simpanan; separuh tahun pertama pelaburan penyelidikan dan pembangunan 70.07 bilion yuan, tahun ke tahun naik 34.8%. Jual kurang, penyelidikan dan pembangunan sebaliknya hancur lebih keras —说明 pengurusan sudah faham: kuantiti jangka pendek boleh hilang, irama teknologi tidak boleh putus. Platform Teknologi Rubik 2.0, Sistem Ekstensi Super Baharu, Keselamatan Pintar, adalah alat makan tiga tahun akan datang.

Merek juga ada indikator keras. Brand Finance 2026 100 teratas nilai jenama automotif global, AITO dengan 3.448 bilion dolar AS, menjadi satu-satunya wajah China dalam TOP 10 jenama mewah global. Tempat ini, bukan satu dua puluh ribu unit jualan bulanan boleh tukar.

Luar negara juga tidak duduk diam: Kilang Indonesia 100,000 unit kapasiti dasar, Timur Tengah terima pesanan 200 unit pertama, harga luar negara lebih tinggi dari dalam negara. Langkah catur ini masih awal, tetapi arah betul.

Maka betul-betul boleh atau tidak

Penilaian saya: jangka pendek ada kolik, sekarang buat kesimpulan terlalu awal, tetapi ada dua nodus menipu tidak boleh.

Pertama jika Ogos M8 model lama jual, boleh tarik balik jualan, langsung uji "kata peralihan gear" berdiri atau tidak. Kembali 30,000 unit ke atas, Ogos hanyalah lubang kecil; jika jualan terus merosot, masalah bukan sekadar peralihan gear.

Kedua adalah Suku Keempat. AITO separuh tahun pertama jualan kira-kira 160,800 unit, tahun ke tahun naik 5.6%, sasaran setahun 500,000 unit, kadar pencapaian kira-kira 32%. Untuk mengisi kekosongan ini, jualan model di bawah perlu kekal pertumbuhan tinggi.

Barisan automotif ini adalah maraton bukan 100 meter, kata ini benar. Tetapi berlari maraton faham — sementara boleh atur nafas, tetapi pace tidak boleh turun terlalu keras, kalau tidak sukar mengejar semula. Dan masalah Seres sekarang kebanyakannya di tengah atur, bukan tidak boleh ikut perkembangan pasaran, tetapi Seres aktiviti atur model baru lama, dalam irama mengeluarkan kad. Jadi kami percaya ia akan segera mengejar semula.