Snatching Toyota.

Writer｜Hu Chengxu Editor｜Mao Shiyang

Auto Pixel (ID:autopix)Original

June 9, like in previous years, BYD held its 2025 Annual Shareholders' Meeting at its headquarters in Pingshan, Shenzhen.

More people came than in previous years, so the company temporarily moved the venue from a meeting room to the hall usually used for press conferences. Wang Chuanfu said on stage that nearly 1,000 people attended today, the most in history.

During the Q&A session, a long-term shareholder with heavy stakes stood up. He wanted to know where the company would head next.

In Wang Chuanfu's answer, a word appeared for the first time: "Global No. 1". He said that in the next three to five years, BYD will continue to grow. After five years, in terms of scale, it will achieve "true Global No. 1".

Not No. 1 in New Energy, not No. 1 in China, but No. 1 in total vehicle scale including Toyota, Volkswagen, Hyundai Kia, etc.

When saying this, BYD was experiencing the biggest deceleration since the New Energy era. In the first five months of 2026, BYD sold 788,000 vehicles domestically, down 43.3% year-on-year. The Chinese market is becoming increasingly difficult to provide the incremental growth it enjoyed in the past.

So Wang Chuanfu's goal truly points to overseas.

Take a closer look at what BYD has done in the past two to three years, this goal is not strange. Its playbook no longer resembles that of a company only wanting a seat at the table overseas.

01

What BYD Wants to Grab,

is the Base of Toyota, Hyundai, et al.

To understand how far BYD is from its goal, one must first look at the gap.

Today, the global No. 1 in auto sales is Toyota, selling a bit over 10 million a year; BYD sold 4.6 million vehicles in 2025, ranking sixth globally. There is a gap of more than 5 million vehicles in between, roughly equivalent to creating another BYD of today's scale on top of its existing volume.

As for this extra 5 million-plus vehicles, what is certain is that most of it will not come from the domestic market.

In 2025, China's New Energy penetration rate reached 53.9%, approaching the ceiling; BYD's domestic sales that year fell instead of rose, down by over 300,000 vehicles compared to 2024.

Geely, Chery, and Changan are all chasing, and this local board is nearly at its peak, with limited incremental growth left to extract. The growth gap is thus pushed overseas as a whole. Outside China, the global New Energy penetration rate is still just over 11%.

But "overseas" is never a single block; its biggest chunks happen to be where BYD cannot enter. The US uses tariff and regulatory barriers to seal off the world's largest and most profitable market; Japan and South Korea are fortresses of local brands, hard for outsiders to pry open; India blocks Chinese cars out with high tariffs and entry barriers.

What remains available are South America, Southeast Asia, Central Asia, Australia, the UK, Gulf States, as well as parts of Europe and Mexico. The market set is smaller, and the share burden for each location to reach is heavier.

And these open markets are none of them empty fields.

Southeast Asia is Toyota's home court, where it holds nearly 40% share; BYD has only just squeezed into the top 3 in Thailand. Australia is even more extreme, with Toyota holding sales No. 1 for 23 consecutive years, sales at two and a half times the second place; Gulf States are the common dominion of Toyota and Hyundai Kia, where Toyota's market share is champion in countries like Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Oman.

Only in Brazil is the stock held by Stellantis, Volkswagen, Hyundai Kia, and Renault.

List the owners of these markets one by one, names will repeat constantly; the most frequent is Toyota, followed by Hyundai Kia, then Volkswagen, Stellantis, and other European automakers.

So the overseas granary BYD wants to grab is a very specific existing stock, the base built up over decades of fuel cars by Japanese and Korean automakers.

What it truly wants to replace is RAV4, Corolla, Elantra, Creta and similar economy, durable, high-volume cars sold for decades, using its own DM-i PHEV and Blade Battery EV to replace them one by one within the highest-volume price bands in each market.

Straighten out the chain, and the slogan "Global No. 1" landing on the ground is actually a simpler sentence: BYD must take the home base they've sold for decades within the Toyota and Hyundai Kia base.

This is a ruthless fight; how many opportunities does it have?

02

Wang Chuanfu Writes Growth into a Production Schedule

Faced with questions like "how to go from sixth to first", Wang Chuanfu's habit is to rewrite it as a supply-side arithmetic problem.

On June 9, what he talked about most was not the market, but production capacity. He said how many cars can be sold this year depends on how many batteries can be built; the capacity of the 2nd Gen Blade Battery is climbing month by month, adding 20,000 to 30,000 sets each month; production capacity will be released on a large scale by 2027, and both domestic and overseas markets will see volume increases.

An issue that should be about market and product was interpreted by him as "how much I can make". In his narrative, demand seems assumed sufficient, and the bottleneck lies on his production lines.

Wang Chuanfu seems to believe that if the technology curve of domestic New Energy in the past three years reenacts overseas, the remaining problems can be left to the production schedule.

This logic can explain BYD's overseas layout over the past two years.

It has at least six factories under construction or planned overseas: the Brazil Camaçari plant is a renovation of an old factory exited by Ford, secured in 2023, with the first car rolling off the line in July 2025, targeting 300,000 capacity by end of 2026; the Thailand plant started production in 2024, with an annual capacity of 150,000; the Hungary Szeged plant serves as Europe HQ; Turkey plans to invest 1 billion USD (potentially delayed); Uzbekistan and Indonesia each have points set up.

BYD's playbook's starting point is a bet on speed.

Looking back at BYD's rise domestically, it relied on technology first. In 2021, the 4th Gen DM-i made PHEV the same price as same-level fuel cars with lower fuel consumption; the Blade Battery simultaneously solved safety and cost, with PHEV annual sales jumping from 270,000 to over 2 million vehicles in two or three years.

During those years, China's New Energy market was almost empty; whoever put electric cars that were easy to use and cheap on shelves first could capture whole chunks of incremental growth.

This playbook continues to now. At this year's shareholders' meeting, Wang Chuanfu said "I spend about half my time every week swimming in the ocean of technology", believing he is "one of the 120,000 engineers inside BYD".

But now this playbook's process of converting to sales is not so smooth. Geely, Chery, Leapmotor have caught up one by one; DM-i is no longer a secret technique; not just BYD makes Flash Charge.

Technology is becoming more homogeneous, approaching the physical ceiling further; taking half a step forward brings less and less sales.

Overseas is another matter. Outside China, New Energy is still at the starting point BYD faced years ago: low penetration, few good cars, high prices, most markets still dominated by fuel cars.

The technology curve that once lifted BYD to sixth globally has barely started climbing overseas. What BYD wants to do is take the most advantageous position before this curve rises, copying the success already verified domestically exactly onto a larger plate.

This explains why the overseas game is played heavily and urgently. BYD judges the window period is limited; once overseas New Energy also ramps up, pursuers will flood in as they did domestically, and the time left for first movers might not be longer.

It is unwilling to spend time waiting for the market to mature, and even less willing to hand over initiative.

This June, foreign media claimed BYD is considering acquiring an old European factory, having looked at "many factories" in Europe and is talking with automakers including Stellantis.

BYD prefers independently operated factories; it wants to take over brownfield factories that can be quickly renovated and operated independently with clear ownership and operational boundaries, rather than getting stuck again in existing European auto JV, leasing, or multi-party interest structures.

Key factories and supply chain self-led; distribution and brand also controlled by self as much as possible, serving efficiency and speed. It would rather not have risk-sharing partners first, and have a decision chain that can drive the fastest.

The Brazil old factory renovation took only 16 months from groundbreaking to first car off the line. Export modules are the same; a 6 to 8-ship fleet brings overseas logistics into its own hands. On the channel end, BYD took an equity stake in a Thai local dealer, bound a dealer group with over 100 stores in Latin America; UK authorized stores increased from 52 to 125 in one year, and signed a 100,000 unit deal with Uber.

Following this logic, overseas moves connect into a line. The strategy Wang Chuanfu launched is a replicable template; this is why when asked about sales, he answers with "production schedule" logic.

Whether it holds ultimately rests on that most fundamental judgment: the technology-pulled market curve, how steep it was domestically in recent years, will be equally steep in many overseas markets in coming years.

As long as this judgment holds, simplifying the problem into a production schedule is the fastest solution.

03

BYD VS Geely

Same Overseas Expansion, Different Betting Methods

A easily occurring misunderstanding is summarizing BYD's overseas expansion as "more valued" than Chery or Geely.

In terms of aggressiveness, all three are actually neck and neck. In terms of overseas volume, Chery sold 1.34 million vehicles overseas in 2025, nearly 300,000 more than BYD, sitting on the Chinese passenger vehicle export champion spot for over 20 consecutive years; in terms of capital courage, Geely has bought all the way from Volvo, Lotus, Polestar to a powertrain JV with Renault.

The real difference is not in the degree of aggressiveness, but in the strategic judgment behind the aggressiveness.

Chery bets on export breadth: complete vehicle export plus semi-knocked-down assembly, spreading cars to corners others can't reach, essentially an asset-light playbook.

Geely bets on capital and alliances; Li Shufu is more like an allocator. He grabs core capabilities on one side, polishing smart and New Energy tech to optimal; on the other side, he takes shares and makes allies, seeking leverage at the factory and channel levels.

▍Li Shufu

This year, Geely's Qianli Haohan G-ASD obtained EU UN R171 certification, becoming the first Chinese ADAS system to pass this regulatory certification; equipped models can be sold in the EU without country-by-country re-certification.

At the same time, Geely integrated Gothenburg and Frankfurt R&D teams, established Geely Technology Europe, planning to compress the launch time gap between China and overseas models from over a year to within 6 months.

Also this year, Lynk & Co's Europe sales reuse Volvo resources; Geely in South Korea and South America reuses Renault resources. Gan Jiayue of Geely Automobile has said, Chinese brands going overseas is not to "conquer", but to "walk in", local JVs, reusing local resources to make win-wins, this is the natural expression of this logic.

Behind the three choices are three strategic judgments, and also three judgments on where the moat should be built.

Geely's judgment on tech replacement is not so anxious. In March this year, at the Geely Holding FY2025 performance press conference, CEO Gui Shengyue said the future economy passenger car market will likely be replaced by robotaxis. Shortly after, Geely became one of Nvidia's automotive partners.

This judgment shows Geely does not see today's New Energy competition as the final outcome. It believes there will be longer tech rearrangements after the auto industry, so it is more willing to keep elasticity using cooperation and capital allocation.

Because of this difference, Geely is not anxious to raise "No. 1", nor will it compress the time to first to five years. It is more like betting on the future rather than pressing all chips on this current New Energy replacement round. So Geely's choices overseas are almost the opposite of BYD's: willing to accept slower, more dispersed, more complex.

BYD wants to maximize scale with batteries, factories, fleets, and channels; Geely is more willing to take more positions in tech routes, regional markets, and partnership relationships.

04

The Other Side of the Production Schedule

Reaching No. 1 in scale is a goal setting, a strategic judgment, and will eventually become a structure.

In 2026, Geely, Chery, Changan, Great Wall almost all offered oil-electric hybrids, to grab Toyota THS share in markets with inconvenient charging,唯独 BYD absent.

Technically it is not incapable. This round of HEV by Chinese automakers is not replicating Toyota THS. It bypasses engines, planetary gears, and long-term calibration that old auto giants are good at, pulling the battlefield back to electric drive systems more familiar to Chinese automakers, downsizing batteries, removing external charging, keeping the PHEV low fuel logic, becoming a hybrid that doesn't need charging.

But BYD chose not to do it, turning to laying charging facilities overseas.

In March this year, BYD booked a stadium with 18,000 seats to launch the 2nd Gen Blade Battery, simultaneously launching the plan "Flash Charge China, Change the World". Wang Chuanfu spoke alone for an hour and a half; the press conference dragged from two hours to three hours; it set a year-end goal to build 20,000 flash charge stations domestically, with capital expenditure in the billions, and changed flash charge stations to integrated storage and charging solutions with built-in storage cabinets, bypassing the trouble of applying to the grid for capacity expansion, deploying on three parking spots.

From year-end, these piles will start spreading overseas; the MW-level network in Europe has already been demonstrated at the Munich Auto Show.

Building charging piles in target markets is the latest chapter in BYD's overseas line, possibly the most money-burning chapter. BYD bets that once the charging network is laid out, the transitional form matters less. Others keep hybrids; BYD chooses not to bet on multiple fields, pressing all chips on this New Energy transition round.

Put these together, it is a consistent logic: growth is punched out section by section from factories, technology, and charging piles.

BYD is almost the only domestic automaker highly controlling everything from supply chain vertical integration to overseas assets. This heavy asset model makes scale a must-do; in this dimension, sales "No. 1" is just a byproduct.

Vertical integration is only worth it when spread to world-class scale; maintaining a fleet requires enough exports to fill it; building cell capacity at that level requires enough whole vehicles to digest it; investing billions to lay 20,000 charging piles requires enough installed base to feed it.

Chery can stop at export champion; Geely can be a large enough multi-brand group; if BYD's scale is not larger than them, the efficiency of this setup cannot be guaranteed.

This gives BYD the possibility to challenge for Global No. 1, and makes it very hard to accept a "not big enough" result.

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On June 9, BYD held the 2025 Annual Shareholders' Meeting. Chairman and President Wang Chuanfu's speech also coveredshort-term performance, technical R&D, intelligent driving, overseas strategy, and long-term goalsand many other aspects.

"During the first quarter of this year, new energy vehicles experienced their darkest moment."

Starting from January 2026, the purchase tax policy for new energy vehicles was halved, leading to front-loaded demand at the end of last year, causing a significant drop in the retail penetration rate of new energy passenger cars. Since BYD only produces new energy vehicles, it was inevitably affected.

"The worst is over."

With the release of the 2nd Gen Blade Battery and Flash Charging technology in March, BYD orders began to recover. Sales in May started to turn positive, and operating cash flow is expected to gradually recover to a good level by the end of the year.

"This year's sales depend on battery capacity."

The 2nd Gen Blade Battery capacity is still insufficient and is currently ramping up by an increase of 20,000 to 30,000 units per month. After our capacity ramps up next year, we believe we will focus on both the domestic and international markets.

"Five years later, in terms of scale, BYD will be able to become the true global No. 1."

In the next three to five years, BYD will continue to maintain sustained growth. Relying on the 2nd Gen Blade Battery, Flash Charging technology, and new technologies to be launched in the coming years, the domestic and foreign markets are expected to achieve dual-wheel drive, forming a virtuous interaction, and taking Chinese technology to the global stage.

"The automotive industry was once filled with various flashy trends, but actually, cars are transportation tools involving safety."

Less trickery, less flashiness. Return to the basics, perfect technology and products, to gain recognition from mid-to-high-end consumers.

"BYD will not 'hoard' the Flash Charging technology."

BYD Logo will not be displayed on charging piles; the Flash Charging ecosystem will serve all car brands and all consumers. Good technology should serve not only BYD but also the entire industry. The cooperation with Sinopec will greatly promote the expansion of Flash Charging technology.

"Vehicle intelligence is Embodied AI."

BYD already has 3.15 million intelligent driving vehicles deployed globally, generating over 200 million kilometers of intelligent driving related driving data daily. The scale of intelligent driving R&D engineers exceeds 5,000. Cumulative future investment will exceed 100 billion.

"L3 and L4 in the future will definitely land earlier."

BYD has already made sufficient preparations in chips (the 4nm intelligent driving chip Xuanji A3 was just released recently), algorithms, data, and ecosystems, including training centers in Europe, South America, Southeast Asia, the Middle East, etc. Once regulations come into effect, BYD will launch a full series of products meeting L3 requirements.

"The overseas sales target of 1.5 million vehicles set for 2026 at the beginning of the year is now expected to be surpassed."

Chinese car companies represented by BYD have already surpassed many local peers in product competitiveness, price, experience, and technology.

"Localization must be done well in overseas markets."

BYD has built a production base mainly in Brazil in South America. The Hungary factory in Europe is about to start production, and the Thailand factory in Southeast Asia has already started production. Exports should not only grow but also maintain localized services to achieve win-win and co-development with local partners.

"BYD has 120,000 engineers; this is the company's true wealth."

The engineer culture has successors, so no need to worry. I spend half of my week participating in technical meetings and communicating with engineers. "Swimming in the ocean of technology" is what interests me most.

" Five years from now, BYD will be able to achieve true global No. 1 in scale. By 2030, we will achieve greater growth. " June 9, BYD Chairman and President Wang Chuanfu stated at the BYD 2025 Annual Shareholder Meeting.

It is reported that this was the largest shareholder meeting in BYD's history, with nearly 1,000 attendees, half of whom are also BYD car owners. Wang Chuanfu, accompanied by the senior management team, engaged in in-depth exchanges with shareholders, directly addressing core issues such as industry competition, sales bottlenecks, overseas expansion, and technical roadmaps.

Regarding the sales issue of widespread concern among investors, Wang Chuanfu stated, This year's sales depend on battery production, as the new generation of Blade Batteries are currently in the production ramp-up phase, as battery production increases, subsequent sales will gradually rise. Next year, battery production is expected to increase significantly, driving the company's sales to a new level.

In March of this year, BYD officially released the second-generation Blade Battery and Flash Charge technology, effectively solving the core pain point of slow charging in the new energy vehicle industry. After the technology was launched, it received high recognition from domestic and foreign markets, and market order volume increased significantly.

Currently, second-generation Blade Battery capacity has a gap and is in a month-by-month ramp-up phase, Monthly capacity increase can reach 20,000 to 30,000 units. Due to the significant increase in power supply of the new generation of Blade Batteries, production line settings and battery internal structures require modification and upgrades, so capacity ramp-up takes some time. BYD is concentrating its efforts to tackle these challenges, fully exploring the production potential of the second-generation Blade Battery.

Wang Chuanfu revealed that battery production is expected to increase significantly in 2027, at which time the company will simultaneously focus on domestic and foreign markets, layout charging networks globally, drive the company's new energy vehicle sales to a new level, and also assist in the coordinated development of technology and the industrial chain.

According to the sales report on June 1, BYD's cumulative sales for the first 5 months of this year were 1.405 million vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 20.3%. Wang Chuanfu pointed out that the purchase tax for new energy vehicles was halved this year, leading many consumers to advance their consumption last year. Therefore, new energy vehicle consumption in January and February dropped sharply, and since BYD only makes new energy vehicles, the impact was huge. However, after efforts in March and April, and coinciding with rising oil prices, sales recovered.

As Wang Chuanfu said, The worst moment has passed. From the sales in May this year, BYD has already ushered in an upward momentum. In May, BYD sold 383,500 vehicles, a slight increase of 0.26% year-on-year, turning positive after 10 months, with a nearly 20% surge month-on-month.

Wang Chuanfu stated at the meeting, currently BYD has deep technical reserves and a clear strategic path, including the second-generation Blade Battery, Flash Charge technology, and more disruptive technologies to be launched next year and the year after, the company will maintain continuous growth in the next three to five years.

Regarding the choice of technology path, Wang Chuanfu stated, BYD will not claim Flash Charge technology as its own exclusive property, the Charging Station will not display BYD's Logo, and the Flash Charge ecosystem will serve all automotive brands and consumers. "A good technology, besides serving BYD, must serve the entire industry more. To win the market and everyone's reputation, one must have this perspective."

He particularly emphasized, with the formation of the "dual-wheel drive" pattern of domestic and overseas markets, Chinese new energy vehicle technology will use this opportunity to truly move to the center stage of the global arena.

Since the beginning of this year, BYD's overseas market development has been strong. Wang Chuanfu revealed, along with the improvement of the company's technology and product power, and the continued release of production at overseas bases, BYD's overseas sales in 2026 are expected to surpass the original 1.5 million unit target.

In May, BYD's overseas sales reached 89,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 133.6%, creating a historical high. Overseas bases in Brazil, Hungary, Thailand, etc., are continuously releasing production, BYD's globalization layout has entered the harvest period.

"Chinese new energy vehicles have comprehensively surpassed local peers in terms of price, technology, product experience, etc." Wang Chuanfu said, but he emphasized at the same time, going overseas cannot be rushed, competitors cannot be made too tense. "We must adhere to long-termism, do a good job in local production and service, and achieve win-win development with locals." This is BYD's globalization philosophy — not to conquer the market, but to integrate into the market, becoming a local corporate citizen.

Wang Chuanfu provided a clear long-term goal: Five years from now, BYD will be able to achieve true global No. 1 in scale. By 2030, we will achieve greater growth.

In the past two years, BYD ranked 5th in the global car sales leaderboard with sales of 4.27 million and 4.6 million vehicles, while Toyota Motor has exceeded 10 million vehicles in sales for 5 consecutive years, retaining the No. 1 spot on the global sales leaderboard. This means BYD's annual sales within 5 years must also break the 10 million mark.

In past years, BYD successively announced factory construction plans in countries such as Hungary, Turkey, Uzbekistan, Brazil, Thailand, Cambodia, Malaysia, etc. As of now, BYD's complete vehicle factories located in Thailand, Uzbekistan, and Brazil have been completed and put into production. BYD Executive Vice President Li Ke stated in an interview with Bloomberg recently, BYD is in touch with European automakers such as Stellantis, seeking to take over underutilized factories locally to utilize idle capacity.

Intelligence is another important growth pole for BYD. At the shareholder meeting, multiple shareholders asked about the outlook for BYD's intelligent driving layout, Wang Chuanfu again reiterated the concept of "Vehicle Intelligence is Embodied Intelligence", the current development speed of AI technology exceeds industry expectations, BYD will actively promote the implementation and application of AI technology in the automotive field.

On the evening of May 28, BYD released its self-developed 4nm process intelligent driving chip Xuanji A3. It is introduced that the chip has started mass production, supporting L3 and L4 autonomous driving.

Wang Chuanfu introduced, currently, BYD's intelligent driving R&D engineer scale exceeds 5,000 people, 3.15 million BYD vehicles equipped with intelligent driving have been put into use globally, generating 200 million kilometers of driving data daily, massive data accumulation lays a solid foundation for BYD's advanced intelligent driving iteration and upgrade.

Based on this massive data foundation, Wang Chuanfu judges that the arrival of L3 and L4 level advanced autonomous driving will be earlier than expected. He stated, BYD has made full preparations in the layout of chips, algorithms, data and other full-chain ecosystems, Intelligent driving training centers in Europe, South America, Southeast Asia, Middle East, etc., are also ready. Once L3 and L4 level intelligent driving related regulations land, BYD will quickly launch compatible products, and gradually push from the Chinese market to the global market.

Wang Chuanfu also discussed, Premiumization has always been the goal pursued by BYD. He said: "The automotive industry used to be flooded with all kinds of flashy traffic, but in fact cars are traffic tools involving safety, they are products. Fewer gimmicks, less flashy, return to the source, do a good job with technology and products, to gain the recognition of mid-to-high-end consumers. After the volume of premium models increases, company gross margin issues and single vehicle profit issues will also be solved easily. Currently, BYD has already established a high-end brand image overseas."

Some investors stated that BYD's current stock price is undervalued, and asked about the company's market value management measures, Wang Chuanfu stated regarding this: "We all recognize our potential, but now our stock price has not reflected it yet. On behalf of the management, I understand and thank everyone for their support." "Many shareholders have put forward very good suggestions for the company's market value management, hoping through our follow-up management, let the company's stock price, products, and performance be able to better return shareholders."

Wang Chuanfu said, believe that performance will get better and better, hoping shareholders keep patience. The company will continue to use technological innovation to drive further future growth, grasp every node, scientific forward-looking layout, to achieve better and faster development for the company, "will definitely achieve better returns for shareholders".