Geely Auto, Absolutely Smashing It

Rock solid amidst market fragmentation.

If using a few words to describe the Chinese auto market in the first half of 2026, "under pressure, fragmentation" fits perfectly.

Domestic passenger car retail volume declined nearly 20%, the smoke of the price war has not cleared, and the total retail sales of consumer goods was dragged into negative growth by the automotive sector; overseas, EU anti-subsidy tariff expansion on cars has landed, and the situation in the Middle East and other regions remains unpredictable.

However, on one hand is the backdrop of a winter in the automotive industry, while on the other hand, brokerage firms frequently increased their positions, surprisingly meeting at a single listed auto company.

This seemingly huge divergence points to a deeper issue, namely what capital markets and investors see in this listed auto company that competitors do not possess.

Auto K-Line believes that in the first half of this year, Geely Auto demonstrated remarkable systemic strength, certainty, stability, and insightful foresight; during the industry's growth phase, it might have been inconspicuous, but in the downturn cycle, it is the stabilizing force that weathers the wind and waves; therefore, the market is a voting machine in the short term, but a weighing machine in the long run.

On July 1, Geely Auto (0175.HK) released its financial report, exhibiting an independent trend. From the beginning of the year to date, the company became the only listed auto stock in Hong Kong that rose.

Among the passenger car segments of listed auto companies counted by Auto K-Line, this is unprecedented.

Announcements show Geely Auto sold 240,800 units in June, achieving double growth in both year-on-year and month-on-year metrics for four consecutive months; cumulative sales in the first half exceeded 1.4229 million units, growing 1% (the only positive growth among the top three listed auto companies in China); new energy penetration rate reached 67%; cumulative overseas export year-on-year surged 158%, with a single month breaking 100,000 units for the first time creating history; ZEEKR brand average selling price per vehicle approached 350,000 Yuan, surpassing BBA...

Domestic market under pressure, Geely Auto grows counter-trend; industry reshuffling, it has already achieved structural optimization. In Auto K-Line's view, the answer to this super-stable performance lies in the strategic certainty brought by Li Shufu and the Geely management leading the "One Geely" systemic strength construction over the past two years.

Especially from overseas explosion to luxury breakthrough, from multi-path technology to large mobility ecosystem, to breakthroughs in motorsports and generational inheritance, Geely Auto has woven a systemic net that crosses cycles across five dimensions.

And the new variables emerging in the current automotive policy environment—falling oil prices, expectations of vehicle and vessel tax reform, and discussions on equal rights for fuel and electric vehicles, etc.—are adding new tension to Geely's net.

As I review the announcements released by Geely Auto, the most eye-catching is Geely Auto's overseas market explosion.

In June, Geely Auto exported 102,800 units, breaking 100,000 units for the first time in a single month, a year-on-year increase of 157%, and overseas sales share rose to 42.7%. Cumulative exports in the first half reached 474,000 units, surging 158% year-on-year, exceeding the total export volume for all of 2025.

Unlike other Chinese listed auto companies, behind this set of figures from Geely Auto is an industry symbiotic overseas expansion model.

Auto K-Line believes this choice by Geely is more like an asset-light route, with deep cooperation with Volvo, Proton, Renault Korea, Renault Brazil, etc., utilizing their existing production capacity to achieve technology licensing and joint production, efficient and easier to accept.

In Europe, utilizing Volvo factories for local production of LYNK & CO and ZEEKR effectively avoids tariff barriers; in Southeast Asia, Xingyuan's localization rate in Indonesia reached 46.5%, deeply integrating into local supply chains; in Latin America, the Renault Geely Brazil company has begun production.

Currently, Geely has laid out over 1,900 outlets in more than 100 countries and regions, completing brand layout in nearly 20 mainstream markets in Europe.

Therefore, the explosive growth in exports in the first half is not an accidental pull of a single hit product, but a inevitable result of full-chain localization system scaled output across production, research, sales, and supply.

It is worth noting that Geely Auto has raised its annual export target from 750,000 units to 1 million units.

In Auto K-Line's view, if the overseas explosion opened up Geely's sales scale space, making Geely Auto the only one among the top three listed auto companies in China to maintain positive cumulative sales growth in the first half, then the ZEEKR brand's premium breakthrough determines the thickness of Geely Auto's growth quality.

Data shows that in the first half of 2026, ZEEKR brand cumulative deliveries reached 178,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 97%, becoming the sales champion of the Chinese luxury new energy market.

As Geely Auto Group Senior Vice President Lin Jie stated, ZEEKR brand average selling price per vehicle approaches 350,000 Yuan, surpassing BBA; ZEEKR 9X average transaction price exceeds 530,000 Yuan. In China's luxury car market above 500,000 Yuan, for every 3 sold, 1 is ZEEKR.

Auto K-Line believes that what supports the ZEEKR brand's price positioning is a very clear product and brand strategy, as well as the success of Geely's direct sales system trial run.

Today, ZEEKR has firmly consolidated the 9 series ultra-luxury, 8 series sports luxury, and 7 series tech luxury premium matrix, and behind it owns the highest level strategic resource support of the Geely system—SEA Expanse Architecture, SEA Super Electric Hybrid, AI Digital Chassis, Qianli Hanhao Smart Driving System.

It is reported that ZEEKR 8X won the reputation champion of mid-to-large SUVs above 300,000 Yuan upon launch; ZEEKR 7X cumulative deliveries exceeded 170,000 units, ranking as the sales champion of mid-size luxury SUVs in many countries overseas; ZEEKR 009 consecutively ranked first in pure electric MPV sales above 400,000 Yuan for two months.

Whether domestic or overseas, ZEEKR's flagship 9 series has become the pursuit target of celebrities and entrepreneurs and other high net worth individuals.

In fact, Geely Auto's premium achievement was already shown in the first quarter of this year. Data shows Geely Auto core net profit per vehicle reached 6,429 Yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30%, setting a new high in nearly five years; gross margin 17.5%, increasing by 1.8 percentage points year-on-year.

Auto K-Line believes that in the period of most fierce price wars, the profit per vehicle did not fall but rose, indicating that true premiumization is letting core technology grow brand premiums.

Besides Geely's counter-trend growth, a policy trend brewing is worth attention; expectations of vehicle and vessel tax reform are making equal rights for fuel and electric vehicles shine on reality.

With new energy penetration rates continuing to rise, the national policy level begins to think, when new energy vehicles are no longer the minority, should they gradually promote equal rights for fuel and electric vehicles, allowing fuel cars and new energy vehicles to compete fairly under the same tax framework.

For listed auto companies completely relying on pure electricity, this means the policy moat narrows; but for listed enterprises like Geely persisting in all technology paths, fuel and electricity advancing together, it is a long-term structural benefit. Moreover, international oil price falls are also indirectly strengthening Geely Auto's competitiveness.

When new energy vehicles no longer enjoy special treatment, market competition will return from policy driven to product driven—Chinese consumers will rationally weigh comprehensive value such as power performance, usage costs, and refueling convenience.

Auto K-Line believes Geely Auto's strategic clarity allows it to benefit from policy changes.

Geely China Star series, as the sales champion of domestic brand fuel cars for 9 consecutive years, accumulated sales over 580,000 units in the first half, clearly being an important profit and cash flow source for Geely.

Moreover, Geely's heavyweight launch of i-HEV Smart Hybrid this year seems to have foreseen international changes, keeping Geely Auto unbeatable. It combines fuel car refueling convenience with electrification fuel-saving performance, and can compete head-on with pure electric cars without policy tilt.

This technology has confirmed full promotion overseas in the fourth quarter. At that time, Geely Auto will form a systematic replacement of traditional fuel cars in the overseas market, going head-on with top Japanese and Korean auto companies overseas.

Auto K-Line feels the trend of fuel and electric equal rights is not weakening Geely, but verifying the foresight Geely Auto has always persisted in multi-route layout.

When the policy balance beam tends to level, true product power can surface. Geely has both scale ability and technical reserves on fuel, hybrid, pure electric, alcohol-hydrogen multi-routes simultaneously, this is exactly its unique advantage distinguishing it from most Chinese listed auto companies!

In 2026, in Auto K-Line's view, Geely Auto made significant layout on the racing map, also to further deepen global layout, build name recognition, and feed back R&D.

At the LYNK & CO 07 GT launch press conference, Lin Jie announced the brand will officially enter the rally field. The championship mission of fighting in WTCE/TCR events for many years has been handed over to the Preface of Geely China Star series.

I believe LYNK & CO entering rally races is a breakthrough, engineering verification scenarios expand from track race speed limits to rally race survival limits; Preface taking over TCR is a heritage, chassis tuning data, power system calibration and lightweight processes settled on the track for many years will be injected back into sales base products.

This layout set elevates track genes from a brand tag to the entire Geely Auto Group's cultural asset. When consumers shift from comparing parameters to recognizing brands, track genes and performance faith will release Geely brand compound interest over a long cycle.

Auto K-Line counted 2026 first-half auto stock trends finding auto sector stock prices overall declined more than double digits, but Geely Auto's strong fundamental resilience attracted institutional dense position increases, also one of the few auto stocks maintaining rise.

Statistics show 46 international institutions have cumulatively increased positions or established positions, including BlackRock, American Century Investments Management long-term funds in the list.

Citi expects Geely Auto's multiple premium models launch will pull second and third quarter gross margins; HSBC Research expects ZEEKR sales growth to continue in second half; Daiwa expects "One Geely" strategy under 2026~2028 profit growth will be higher than market general expectations.

With August semi-annual report release, continuous realization of fundamentals and profits, Geely Auto is expected to usher in an important window for valuation repair.

According to Auto K-Line knowledge, second half Geely Galaxy TT will冲击 C-Class pure electric coupe market, Galaxy Battleship 700 will explore hard-core off-road new category.

Overlaying new generation electric drive technology upcoming release, i-HEV full promotion globalization, ZEEKR 9X overseas launch first to Middle East—this systemic net woven by global channels, premium technology matrix, fuel-electric dual-line layout, three-dimensional mobility ecosystem and brand culture faith, will continue to extend.

Views of AutosKline:

2026行至年中，when the industry's surging tide recedes, many have already lost their underwear, but Geely Auto has worked out abs.

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