US Blocks Exits, Thailand Tightens, 570 Billion Evaporates

The Shenwan Auto Sector in A-shares lost 570 billion in market cap over the past 30 days, with a decline exceeding 11%.

A-shares Auto Sector Closing Prices for Some Listed Companies on June 22

Behind this figure, two core overseas expansion routes are being simultaneously blocked.

North America Doors Welded Shut

US tariffs on Chinese EVs were raised from 25% to 100%, with a combined tax rate exceeding 102%.

A domestic EV priced at 200,000 RMB sees its final US selling price double directly.

Last year, only 12,400 Chinese EVs were sold to the US; North America was not the main market anyway.

But this time the impact hits the supply chain—the US also introduced review rules for connected vehicle hardware and software; supply chains containing Chinese parts or chips face restrictions.

Complete vehicles and parts are locked bidirectionally.

Southeast Asia Backyard Also Tightened

Thailand was once the first stop for Chinese automakers expanding overseas, with Chinese brands holding over 80% market share in the local new energy vehicle sector.

But Thailand implemented new regulations this year: for every 1 vehicle imported, 2 must be produced locally, with the ratio increasing to 1:3 by 2027.

Batteries and core electronic controls must be produced locally; additional 10% surcharge applies if parts procurement ratios are not met.

After the new regulations took effect, Thailand's pure electric vehicle sales plummeted by 80% in the short term.

The strategy of relying on volume through complete vehicle exports no longer works.

The EU is also contemplating additional anti-subsidy tariffs on Chinese plug-in hybrids, with the highest combined tax rate potentially exceeding 45%.

The 'Domestic Production, Overseas Vehicle Export' light-asset model is being dismantled one by one by global trade barriers.

Domestic Market Also Under Pressure

In the first 5 months, domestic passenger car retail reached 7.1 million units, down nearly 20% year-on-year.

Although new energy penetration rate exceeded 63%, growth came entirely at the expense of fuel vehicle market share, with no incremental growth in the total market.

The price war has lasted 3 years; the industry average net profit margin in Q1 dropped to only 3.2%, with profit per vehicle less than 3,000 RMB.

Dealer inventory backlog exceeds 2.5 million units, and capacity utilization rate is below 70%.

Overseas tariffs raise overseas expansion costs, domestic price wars compress profit margins; squeezed from both ends, valuations naturally come down.

Time to Change Tactics

Top automakers have long abandoned the pure export route.

BYD is building factories in Hungary, Thailand, and Brazil; Great Wall and SAIC are deeply cultivating Southeast Asia to drive supply chain localization; Leapmotor and NIO are entering Europe through cooperation models.

The shift from 'Complete Vehicle Export' to 'Localization Production + Supply Chain Overseas Expansion' is a transformation forced by this wave of barriers.

The 570 billion evaporation is not an emotional fluctuation, but the market re-pricing for the era of fierce competition.

Those who survive are the companies that can build factories globally, control costs, and sustain their brands.

(Image from internet)