A toy costing a few yuan triggered a huge storm in late July.

The incident started when a blogger made a bamboo cicada for his daughter, filmed a nostalgic video for the post-80s and 90s generations. Netizens, hearing the "wa wa" sound when shaking the "bamboo cicada", were reminded of Richard Yu's amazed comments on new products at launch events.

Some people made funny videos, paired with captions like "The best toy within 10 million". The videos were mass reported by Huawei Terminal and taken down. Netizens' rebellious emotions were ignited.

"The best toy within 10 million", seemingly a joke, is actually a deconstruction of the AITO M9 promotional slogan. That is, through this joking method, make "The best car within 10 million" completely become a joke.

Huawei's fierce reaction exceeded public expectations, revealing the cruelty of the current car market from the side.

In July, domestic new energy vehicles were still galloping, but under the gallop, another situation was gradually emerging.

Half Joy, Half Concern

The polarization that started in April has greatly deepened by July.

In July, divided by 90,000, car companies were divided into two clear camps. The first tier kept climbing. BYD, SAIC, Geely, Chery, Leapmotor, Changan, six car companies, all achieved year-on-year growth, and month-on-month fluctuation only appeared in SAIC and Geely.

The second tier seemed firmly locked at 40,000 monthly sales. NIO, XPeng, Li Auto, AITO, Hyper, Aion are all like this. These car companies, in July, most did not achieve both year-on-year and month-on-month growth. Especially compared to June, only Hyper Aion saw month-on-month growth.

There is a huge gap between the two tiers. The 6th place Changan is more than twice the 7th place HarmonyOS Intelligent Vehicle, and January-July sales volume reached 3 times. The second tier catching up to the first tier has already become very difficult.

The median and mean further verify this polarization trend. Among the 15 car companies or brands currently announced, the median is 38,027 units, with year-on-year and month-on-year declines of 6% and 15% respectively.

The mean is basically flat with June, with year-on-year growth reaching 28%. Mean growth means overall sales are still increasing. Median decline means car companies in the middle of sales are facing challenges. In other words, the incremental sales were all eaten up by the first tier.

If in the early stage of industry development this is not a problem, but at this stage, for the second tier car companies, days are becoming very difficult.

4 Brands Monthly Sales Break 100,000

Among the 29 brands with announced sales for July, 22 brands achieved monthly sales over 10,000.

Brands that did not exceed 10,000 monthly sales also include BYD Yangwang, Jishi Motors, NIO Firefly, etc. These brands are either special price segment brands, niche models, or new brands, currently in the production capacity climb stage. Excluding these brands, monthly sales over 10,000 is already the basic threshold for sitting at the table, and competition difficulty is increasing.

Among the 22 brands with monthly sales over 10,000, 4 have already broken 100,000 monthly sales. Besides the strong BYD Dynasty and Ocean series, and Geely Galaxy series, Leapmotor became a new member, and Leapmotor is the first new EV maker to break 100,000 monthly sales.

In the below 100,000 yuan price range, there are 11 brands with monthly sales over 100,000. Among them, BYD Fang Cheng Bao sales volume broke 40,000. But it can also be seen that the gap between the two tiers is huge, and brand sales also present extreme polarization. Among numerous brands, breaking through to create a hit is becoming increasingly unlikely.

Under horizontal competition, breaking out becomes more difficult. Vertical achievement of own strategy might bring some comfort, but the reality is, more than half of 2026 has passed, and most car companies' sales target achievement status has not yet broken 50%.

Among car companies that announced annual sales targets, Zeekr's progress is far ahead, completing 71% of the annual target in 7 months. The Galaxy series is also strong, having completed 63%.

Progress on targets for other car companies has not exceeded half, and pressure to sprint for annual targets remains huge. NIO's sales target is relatively small, currently completed 48%. Leapmotor showed bright performance, but the million-unit sales target is large, and the difficulty of completion is high.

Xiaomi's production capacity seems still unable to further improve, maintaining around 30,000 units for 4 consecutive months. To complete the 2026 annual 550,000 unit delivery target, it needs to wait for further production capacity pull-up.

From sales performance, it can be seen that the Matthew effect is very obvious. Whether car companies or sub-brands under car companies, polarization is obvious, and the gap between the two tiers is huge.

Continuation of this situation makes survival status increasingly poor for car companies with weak sales growth.

At the current stage, car company costs are continuously increasing. Seres founder Zhang Xinghai previously gave detailed data. Storage chip price increase rose up to 5 times, lithium carbonate price climbed from 80,000 yuan/ton to 180,000 yuan/ton last August. Dual raw material price increase directly led to AITO single car manufacturing cost increase of 15,000 to 20,000 yuan. Under this situation, profits of most car companies are squeezed significantly.

Data from CPCA shows that January-June auto industry profit margin is 3.8%, downstream industrial enterprise profit margin is 6.5%. Auto industry is obviously still relatively low.

Closing in on Q2 financial report season, many car companies disclosed profit forecasts. The second-tier Seres, GAC, BAIC BluePark all showed losses. Among them, GAC expected loss 4.06-4.57 billion yuan, BAIC BluePark expected loss 1.795-1.995 billion yuan, Seres expected loss 1.5-1.8 billion yuan.

Price reduction means further profit pressure, which might directly threaten operational stability.

Moreover, even with price reduction, it does not equal sales growth. On one hand, the incremental era is heading towards its end.

"Oil-Electricity Equal Rights" curtain opens. Starting from January 1, 2027, energy saving cars half levy car and vessel tax policy, and pure electric commercial vehicles, plug-in (including extended range) hybrid cars, fuel cell commercial vehicles car and vessel tax exemption will be cancelled. This means, the new energy vehicle car and vessel tax preferential policy implemented for 15 years officially enters withdrawal countdown.

Preferential policy cancellation will also cause consumption willingness to slide, and car companies' incremental space will further shrink.

On the other hand, the market is already very internalized, everyone is reducing prices in disguise. Car companies are not conducting price wars on the surface, but secretly all lowering prices and increasing configurations. Data from CPCA shows that January-June, new energy vehicle new car discounted model average price 247,000 yuan discount force arithmetic average reached 30,000 yuan, discount force reached 12%.

Technical innovation is not necessarily a panacea. An innovative product design will quickly become a standard. Relying on one technology or product design to gain excessive market returns has become very difficult.

Under this situation, many car companies' stock prices continue to fall, and car companies have to buy back to maintain stock prices.

SAIC Group announced controlling shareholder promises not to reduce shares held in any way within 6 months. Seres has already bought back 8.9755 million shares, using fund total 587 million yuan. JAC Motors has already bought back 1.5467 million shares, using fund total 34.9948 million yuan.

Under this cruel situation, car companies' survival status is not good, and seeking overseas growth has also become a must-have option.

Going Overseas: New Forces Set Sail

Overseas markets are still led by traditional car companies.

Chery is still the navigator among overseas car companies, and growth momentum is very fierce. According to listed company caliber, Chery July overseas sales 196,300 units, has achieved "walking on two legs". This sales volume is 5th consecutive month breaking historical high.

BYD is closely chasing, July overseas sales 179,800 units, 4th consecutive month breaking historical high, consecutive 9 months sales breakthrough 100,000 units. If only looking at new energy vehicles, BYD might have already led.

In July, BYD Brazil factory 100,000th new energy vehicle officially rolled off production line, factory on-job employee scale reached 5,500 people. Denza's first hypercar listed in UK, Denza Z starting price 1.3 million yuan, global pre-sale orders over 1,000 units. BYD new energy vehicles in Thailand market cumulative delivery volume officially broke 130,000 units.

Currently, BYD is strengthening global influence. The group reached global strategic cooperation relationship with Paris Saint-Germain Football Club (PSG). Both sides will promote cooperation landing through global communication activities, fan interaction forms, etc.

Geely although not rapid growth, also broke 100,000 units for 2 consecutive months, 7th consecutive month breaking historical high. This is a very strong performance. In addition, Great Wall also created new high for 4 consecutive months.

Although SAIC failed to break new high, it has also been stabilizing monthly sales over 100,000 units for consecutive 5 months.

Say, traditional car companies are ushering in a comprehensive explosion in overseas markets. To a certain extent, this can alleviate the tight domestic state.

New forces also saw huge potential in overseas markets. Since this year, car companies such as NIO, XPeng, Li Auto have obviously accelerated overseas layout actions.

XPeng announced its Australia long-term strategy, planning to introduce XPeng high-level intelligent assisted driving locally in 2027. In addition, XPeng Australia New Zealand subsidiary will launch 5 new models within 6 months, and plans to layout 3 flagship tech experience centers and 50 outlets in Australia.

Besides Australia, XPeng also held Mona L03 launch event in Munich, Germany. Planned to land in 65 countries and regions this year, expanding XPeng Group international product lineup.

Li Auto cooperated with Kazakhstan local car group Allur to reach strategic cooperation, will utilize Allur Kostanai factory to start local assembly production. All new Li Auto L9 also listed in Kazakhstan in July, pricing far exceeded domestic.

Leapmotor B10 completed Mexico localization certification, officially landed local market and started delivery, opening North American market expansion process. Currently, Leapmotor B10 has entered Mexico local stores. Leapmotor C10, C16 will also gradually enter market.

Overseas competition has become the only way for car companies. In the stage where domestic market polarization is obvious and market pattern gradually stabilizes, overseas vast markets may become the key to the next stop for car companies.

Xiaomi Overturns Table, Volume Models Released Dense

July is not a big month for product launches. Many car companies put volume models into July launches.

This month's highlight is Xiaomi.

On the night of July 30, Xiaomi Pengcheng held a technical launch event, releasing 2 new cars. Equipped with Xiaomi self-developed Kunlun Extended Range Engine, fuel compatibility performance is broad, can add 92, 95, 98 different grade gasoline. Under WLTC working conditions, Pengcheng N70 lowest fuel consumption is 5.7L/100km, CLTC pure electric range highest can reach 505km, full oil full electricity comprehensive range all break 1,500km.

Lei Jun also focused introduced rear row variable diverse cockpit scene, seats support front row 180° rotation, second row horizontal movement.

The most explosive is price. N90 Max pre-sale price 299,900 yuan, N70 Max pre-sale price 259,900 yuan. Two new cars will be officially launched in September. According to usual laws, new cars might further lower prices. This means, this 9-series full-size SUV has been pressed to within 300,000 yuan by Xiaomi. For AITO M9, Li Auto L9, Zeekr 9x, NIO ES9 and other competitors, it might be a considerable shock.

However, some netizens questioned, new cars put 400V platform on 300,000 class flagship models, no rear wheel steering, no steer-by-wire chassis, battery supplier downgrade, electric drive and intelligent driving hardware intentionally diluted in launch event. But from current market reaction view, Xiaomi Pengcheng will likely give this already very fierce market, add another layer of fire.

Except Xiaomi, other hot car companies also released volume models.

NIO series Firefly announced, Halo Xunguang series first model "Habitat" officially launched, whole vehicle price starting at 133,300 yuan.

XPeng MONA L03 launched 9 models in China market, price 123,800 to 156,800 yuan. L03 positioning compact SUV, providing pure electric and extended range two power.

Leapmotor new B series officially launched. B10 positioning pure electric compact SUV, B01 positioning pure electric compact sedan. Full series standard equip Qualcomm SA8295P chip, all-domain 800V SiC high pressure system + 3C fast charge etc. B10 price starting at 99,800 yuan, B01 price starting at 95,800 yuan.

New generation Li Auto L6 officially launched, only providing Ultra one version, national unified retail price 249,800 yuan.

Traditional car company aspect, Geely series Lynk & Co 07GT officially launched, releasing 4 models. Geely Galaxy TT Ultra officially opened pre-sale, new car positioning pure electric mid-large sedan, Ultra is high config version, later will also supplement price lower models. Zeekr 9X 5-seat version officially launched.

Dongfeng series Voyah Pursuit Light S published quad drive top config model, pre-sale price 309,900 yuan. Later will also supplement long range rear drive version and standard range version. New car positioning pure electric mid-large SUV, product orientation more lean towards young and sports.

BYD Ocean network series Seal 08 officially launched, new car releasing 6 configurations.

Time enters Q3, car companies' second half year sprint is about to open curtain. Considering relevant subsidies start reducing, this half year will be manufacturers' last timing to sprint sales.

Fighting for "Domestic BBA"

"NIO, XPeng, Li Auto" these three new forces sales comparison is becoming meaningless.

On one hand, Leapmotor's sudden appearance, made three car companies become the second game of competitive new forces. On the other hand, XPeng, NIO layout in low price segment, three new forces are no longer mid-high end, luxury car sales direct comparison.

First half year, Li Auto, AITO, NIO, Zeekr, launched fierce battle in full-size SUV, 400,000 yuan above luxury car price segment. These four car companies are currently accelerating grabbing BBA customers.

This trend started with Li Auto L9. Relying on precise grasp of dad and baby family demands, Li Auto car first tested the water. From June 2022 first unit delivery to June 2026, Li Auto L9 completed 300,000 units cumulative delivery in 4 years. Early, Li Auto could rely on one model to hard resist NIO, XPeng. Precise layout on dad market was key.

AITO pushed this market to climax. September 2023, AITO M9 suddenly appeared, 100,000 units sold in a year, consecutive 21 months toping 500,000 yuan above luxury car sales first place.

Before a few years, relying on early layout, intelligent driving and cockpit field leading, AITO and Li Auto enjoyed market dividends. But market pattern will not remain unchanged. AITO M9 and Li Auto L9 lead advantage will soon be caught up.

Zeekr's success comes from 9X and 8X success. Since listing on September 29, 2025, 9X in China 500,000 yuan class high-end SUV market segment, has been toping sales list for 7 consecutive months. This May, Zeekr 8X sales 6,103 units, grabbing transaction average price 300,000-500,000 yuan interval hybrid SUV sales first place.

NIO is following slowly, ES8 and ES9 launched successively. NIO's advantage lies in its battery swap products. Through BaaS rent power mode, NIO pressed ES9 starting price to within 400,000 yuan. July, NIO ES9 also achieved good sales. New ES8 reached 130,000th unit delivery in 305 days. NIO ES9 since May 28 started delivery, 30 days delivery broke 10,000 units, refreshed 500,000 yuan above high-end pure electric vehicle fastest delivery record.

From sales view, in mid-high end and luxury car price segment, July, Zeekr ran to front. Li Auto, AITO, NIO main brands closely chasing. These four car companies' current difference is not big.

Which of these four will be Domestic BBA, or whether these four can all be Domestic BBA, has become more interesting to watch.

Volume Sales, Difficulties All Over

Compared to mid-high end struggle, price reduction seems the simplest option for new forces.

XPeng exiting Mona series, NIO launching Onvo series, Firefly series, are all precise snipers to sales.

But from result side, mass consumer market is not a market where you take what you want. Even positioning mid-high end, does not mean these car companies can use low price to snatch other car companies' shares.

Taking NIO as example, it launched 100,000-200,000 yuan price segment Onvo brand, 100,000 yuan below Firefly brand. But until July, Onvo contribution sales was 10,155 units. Stable above 10,000 units for 3 consecutive months, but recent 2 months month-on-month both showed decline. Firefly similarly struggled to start, until now failed to break monthly sales of 10,000.

XPeng did not announce Mona series contribution sales, but from XPeng's overall sales view, still did not break 40,000 units threshold. Therefore, low price might relieve sales pressure in short term, substantial sales changes still need long process.

This point is also reflected in Hyper Aion traditional car company brand merchants. Once, Aion sales exceeded NIO, XPeng, Li Auto. But in current stage development, gradually lost speed. July sales 34,987 units, still in flat state.

This point Geely and Leapmotor performed better. Leapmotor does not rely on brand, but is truly high price low config. July, Leapmotor sales first time stood on 100,000 units, consecutive 4th month sales creating historical high, throwing other new forces far behind.

Geely Galaxy is also embodiment of product power. Focusing on friendly commute, home rigid demand, focusing on high cost-performance, low usage cost and reliable quality. July sales 107,800 units, consecutive 2nd month breaking 100,000, becoming a strong challenger to BYD.

Mass consumer market, brand is perhaps not the most important factor, higher cost-performance, more reliable product experience.

Xiaomi, HarmonyOS: Internet Car Companies Growth Troubles

Xiaomi and Huawei are both facing their own troubles.

July, Xiaomi sales still stopped around 30,000 units. This of course relates to production capacity. But in December last year, Xiaomi's production capacity was once pulled to 50,000 units, and once consecutive 3 months broke 40,000 units. Now Xiaomi still controls production capacity at 30,000 units, still not well digesting orders. Since this year, Xiaomi's stock price has fallen 30% from peak period, huge pressure.

Same situation HarmonyOS Intelligent Vehicle also encountered. July, HarmonyOS Intelligent Vehicle sales 45,046 units. After May 20,000 in June, it dropped back to 40,000. This is far from the limit of HarmonyOS Intelligent Vehicle. In recent years, HarmonyOS Intelligent Vehicle's "friends circle" continuously expanded. Now there are already "Five Worlds Three Realms", but at current stage, this ecosystem performance is not optimistic.

AITO needs not say. AITO-led Seres car sales only 20,480 units. Sales returned to March water level. Ambitious Luxeed, started delivery in May, until July barely reached 20,000 unit delivery. Stelato cooperating with Chery, finally broke 10,000 this month, reached 10,709 units, but still did not break new high.

Under low sales momentum, cost cooperating with Huawei is becoming prominent. In 2025, Seres paid Huawei over 20 billion yuan procurement fee. These rigid cost expenditures are increasingly eye-catching under current situation.

July, Seres released Q2 loss warning. Among them, AITO car 2026 half-year deduct non-net loss reached 1.7-1.95 billion yuan. HarmonyOS insists on high-end route. Under normal conditions, car companies' profit margin has guarantee. But with supply chain price rise, car company competition intensifies, enterprises on HarmonyOS industry chain face operation pressure.

Facing current situation, Xiaomi gave solution. Launching extended range brand Pengcheng, opening sales again through new products. However, this heat maintained through freshness will eventually return to calm. Xiaomi and Huawei have walked through dividend period. Need stronger product power.

Fierce competition is indeed the current reality of new energy car companies. For many car companies, this is a difficult cycle. But continuously evolving Chinese car companies are comprehensively realizing overtaking on the curve.

Chinese car companies' difficulty is the difficulty of walking uphill. Compared to this, since this year, traditional luxury car three giants BBA (Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Audi) collectively reduced prices. Japanese car companies three strong (Honda, Toyota, Nissan) first half year China sales collectively declined. Among them Honda year-on-year declined 34.7%. Under big trend, Chinese car companies are grabbing territory of old forces, grabbing era opportunity. Need technology and experience more surpassing the era. This is a process. This difficult situation will eventually gradually be overcome.

Sebuah mainan berharga beberapa yuan, namun pada akhir Julai mencetuskan gelora besar.

Pemulaannya seorang blogger membuatkan anak perempuan sebuah Cicada Bambu, merakam video nostalgia generasi 80-an dan 90-an. Rakan-rakan netizen mendengar bunyi "wawa" ketika Cicada Bambu bergoyang, teringat kepada suara Yu Chengdong yang bersorak di pelancaran produk baharu.

Ada pihak membuat video lucu, digabungkan dengan teks "Mainan Terbaik Di Bawah 10 Juta Yuan" dsb. Video tersebut telah disekat secara besar-besaran oleh Huawei Terminal. Emosi menentang netizen telah terpicu.

"Mainan Terbaik Di Bawah 10 Juta Yuan", walaupun nampak seperti ejekan, sebenarnya adalah dekonstruksi terhadap kata-kata promosi AITO M9. Maksudnya, melalui cara jenaka ini, menjadikan "Kenderaan Terbaik Di Bawah 10 Juta Yuan" benar-benar menjadi bahan ketawa.

Tindakan tegas Huawei melampaui jangkaan ramai, dan dari sisi ini mendedahkan kekejaman pasaran kereta semasa.

Julai, Kenderaan Baharu Tempatan masih berlari kencang, tetapi di bawah kelajuan tersebut, situasi lain mula muncul secara beransur-ansur.

Separuh Kegembiraan, Separuh Kerisauan

Polarisasi dua kutub yang bermula pada April, sehingga Julai telah menjadi lebih mendalam.

Julai, dibahagikan kepada dua kubu yang jelas dengan had 90,000 unit. Koridor Pertama semakin meningkat. Enam syarikat kereta iaitu BYD, SAIC, Geely, Chery, Leapmotor, dan Changan, semua mencapai pertumbuhan berbanding tahun lalu, dan pertumbuhan berbanding bulan lepas hanya SAIC dan Geely yang mempunyai getaran.

Koridor Kedua seolah-olah dikunci rapat oleh jualan bulanan 40,000 unit, Nio, XPeng, Li Auto, AITO, Hyper Aion semuanya sedemikian. Syarikat-syarikat ini pada Julai, kebanyakan tidak dapat mencapai pertumbuhan berbanding tahun lalu dan berbanding bulan lepas. Terutama berbanding Jun, hanya Hyper Aion yang mencatatkan pertumbuhan berbanding bulan lepas.

Antara dua koridor terdapat jurang yang besar. Changan yang di tempat ke-6 adalah lebih dari 2 kali ganda HarmonyOS Smart Mobility di tempat ke-7, jualan Januari-Julai lebih lagi mencapai 3 kali ganda. Koridor Kedua cuba mengejar Koridor Pertama, sudah menjadi sangat sukar.

Median dan Purata mengesahkan lagi trend polarisasi ini. 15 syarikat atau jenama yang diumumkan semasa ini, median 38,027 unit, menurun 6% dan 15% berbanding tahun lalu dan bulan lalu.

Purata pada Jun adalah sama, berbanding tahun lalu meningkat 28%. Peningkatan purata bermakna jualan keseluruhan masih meningkat. Penurunan median bermakna syarikat kereta di tengah-tengah jualan menghadapi cabaran, iaitu, penambahan semua diserap oleh Koridor Pertama.

Jika pada peringkat awal pembangunan industri, ini bukan masalah, tetapi pada peringkat semasa ini, bagi syarikat kereta Koridor Kedua, hari-hari semakin sukar.

4 Jenama Mencapai Jualan Bulanan Melampaui 100,000

Dari 29 jenama yang diumumkan jualan Julai, ada 22 jenama telah mencapai jualan beratus-ratus.

Jenama yang jualan tidak mencapai 10,000 unit termasuk BYD Yangwang, Jeep Shi Automobile, Nio Firefly, dll. Beberapa jenama ini ada jenama segmen harga khusus, ada model niche, ada jenama baru, berada dalam fasa lonjakan kapasiti, mengecualikan jenama-jenama ini, jualan bulanan melebihi 10,000 unit sudah menjadi garis dasar duduk di atas meja permainan, kesukaran persaingan semakin besar.

Dari 22 jenama jualan melebihi 10,000 unit, ada 4 yang sudah jualan bulanan melebihi 100,000 unit. Selain dari BYD Dynasty dan Ocean kedua-dua siri yang kuat, serta Geely Galaxy siri, Leapmotor menjadi ahli baru, dan Leapmotor masih merupakan pengeluar kereta baharu pertama jualan bulanan menembusi 100,000 unit.

Di bawah 100,000 Yuan, ada 11 jenama jualan bulanan melebihi 10,000 unit,其中 BYD Fangchengbao jualan menembus 40,000, tetapi boleh kelihatan juga, jurang dua koridor adalah sangat besar, jualan jenama juga menunjukkan polarisasi dua kutub yang ekstrem. Di kalangan banyak jenama, ingin menembus keluar dan membuat model letupan, kemungkinan juga semakin rendah.

Dalam persaingan mendatar, kesulitan untuk menembus keluar bertambah. Pencapaian strategi sendiri secara menegak mungkin membawa sedikit kelegaan, tetapi keadaan sebenar adalah, 2026 sudah separuh lebih, kebanyakan syarikat kereta pencapaian sasaran jualan tahunan belum menembus 50%.

Dari syarikat kereta yang mengumumkan sasaran jualan tahunan, Zeekr kemajuan jauh lebih awal, 7 bulan sudah lengkap 71% sasaran tahunan, siri Galaxy juga kuat, sudah lengkap 63%.

Kepentingan sasaran syarikat kereta lain belum separuh, tekanan untuk mencetuskan sasaran tahunan masih besar. Nio menetapkan sasaran jualan kecil, sudah lengkap 48%, Leapmotor walaupun prestasi cemerlang, tetapi sasaran jualan satu juta besar, kesulitan untuk lengkap lebih tinggi.

Kapasiti Xiaomi nampaknya masih tidak dapat ditingkatkan lagi, 4 bulan berturut-turut kekal di sekitar 30,000 unit, lengkap sasaran penghantaran tahunan 550,000 unit, perlu menunggu lonjakan kapasiti seterusnya.

Dari prestasi jualan boleh dilihat, Efek Matthew sangat jelas, sama ada syarikat kereta atau sub-jenama di bawah syarikat kereta, polarisasi dua kutub jelas, jurang dua koridor sangat besar.

Kesinambungan keadaan ini, bagi syarikat kereta dengan pertumbuhan jualan lemah, keadaan survival semakin buruk.

Peringkat semasa, kos syarikat kereta sedang terus bertambah. Pengasas Seres Zhang Xinghai, sebelum ini memberikan data terperinci. Harga cip penyimpanan meningkat 5 kali ganda, harga litium karbonat naik dari 80,000 Yuan/ton bulan lalu ke 180,000 Yuan/ton, kenaikan harga dua bahan mentah secara langsung menyebabkan kos pembuatan setiap kereta AITO meningkat 15,000 hingga 20,000 Yuan. Dalam keadaan ini kebanyakan keuntungan syarikat kereta telah tersepit secara besar-besaran.

Data Persekutuan Kenderaan Penumpang menunjukkan, Januari-Jun kadar keuntungan industri automotif 3.8%, kadar keuntungan industri perolehan hulu 6.5%, industri automotif jelas masih rendah.

Dekat musim laporan kewangan suku kedua, banyak syarikat kereta telah mendedahkan peramalan prestasi, Koridor Kedua Seres, GAC, BAIC Blue Valley semuanya mengalami kerugian. Antara itu, GAC dijangka rugi 4.06-4.57 bilion, BAIC Blue Valley dijangka rugi 1.795-1.995 bilion, Seres dijangka rugi 1.5-1.8 bilion.

Penurunan harga bermakna tekanan keuntungan semakin besar, mungkin secara langsung mengancam keteguhan operasi.

Dan, walaupun penurunan harga, tidak sama dengan pertumbuhan jualan. Di satu pihak, zaman peningkatan sedang menuju ke hujung.

Tirai "Kewajaran Minyak dan Elektrik" dibuka. Bermula 1 Januari 2027, dasar cukai kapal dan kenderaan untuk kenderaan penjimatan tenaga separuh, serta kenderaan komersial elektrik tulen, kenderaan hibrid plug-in (termasuk range extender), kenderaan komersial fuel cell bebas cukai akan dibatalkan. Ini bermakna, dasar keistimewaan cukai kapal dan kenderaan untuk kenderaan tenaga baharu yang dilaksanakan selama 15 tahun, secara rasmi memasuki pengunduran unduran.

Pembatalan dasar keistimewaan, hasrat pengguna juga akan tergelincir, ruang peningkatan syarikat kereta akan semakin mengecil.

Di satu pihak lagi, pasaran sudah sangat ketat, semua secara tidak langsung menurunkan harga. Syarikat kereta tidak melakukan perang harga secara terbuka, tetapi sebenarnya semua sedang secara senyap menurunkan harga, menambah konfigurasi. Data Persekutuan Kenderaan Penumpang menunjukkan, Januari-Jun, purata harga model yang menurunkan harga untuk kenderaan tenaga baharu baharu 247,000 Yuan, kekuatan penurunan purata aritmetik mencapai 30,000 Yuan, kekuatan penurunan mencapai 12%.

Kejuruteraan teknologi juga belum tentu ubat penawar, satu reka bentuk produk inovasi yang baru, dengan cepat akan menjadi piawaian, ingin bergantung pada satu teknologi atau reka bentuk produk untuk memperoleh pulangan pasaran tambahan, sudah menjadi sangat sukar.

Dalam keadaan ini, saham banyak syarikat kereta terus jatuh, syarikat kereta terpaksa membeli kembali untuk mengekalkan harga saham.

SAIC Group mengumumkan pemegang saham mengawal menjanjikan 6 bulan tidak akan mengurangkan pegangan mana-mana cara ke atas syarikat yang dipegangnya. Seres sudah membeli kembali 8.9755 juta unit saham, menggunakan jumlah dana 587 juta Yuan. JAC sudah membeli kembali 1.5467 juta unit saham, menggunakan jumlah dana 34.9948 juta Yuan.

Dalam situasi kekejaman ini, keadaan survival syarikat kereta tidak baik, mencari pertumbuhan luar negara juga sudah menjadi satu pilihan penting.

Ke Luar Negara: Pengusaha Baharu Bermula

Pasaran luar negara, masih menjadi protagonis syarikat kereta tradisional.

Chery masih merupakan kapten dalam syarikat kereta ke luar negara, dan kekuatan pertumbuhan sangat ganas. Mengikut skala syarikat tersenarai, jualan luar negara Chery Julai 196,300 unit, sudah mencapai "berjalan dengan dua kaki". Jualan ini adalah bulan ke-5 berturut-turut menyegarkan rekod sejarah tertinggi.

BYD mengejar rapat, jualan luar negara Julai 179,800 unit, bulan ke-4 berturut-turut menyegarkan rekod sejarah tertinggi, jualan 9 bulan berturut-turut menembus 100,000 unit, jika hanya melihat kenderaan tenaga baharu, BYD mungkin sudah mendahului.

Julai, kilang Brazil BYD kenderaan tenaga baharu ke-100,000 rasmi turun dari kilang, skala pekerja kilang sampai 5,500 orang. Denza supercar pertama di UK dilancarkan, harga permulaan Denza Z 1.3 Juta Yuan, tempahan pra penjualan global melebihi 1,000 unit. Jualan terkumpul kenderaan tenaga baharu BYD di pasaran Thailand rasmi menembus 130,000 unit.

Semasa ini, BYD sedang mengukuhkan pengaruh di global, kumpulan dengan Paris Saint-Germain Football Club (PSG) mencapai hubungan kerjasama strategik global, kedua-dua pihak akan melalui aktiviti penyebaran global, interaksi peminat dsb bentuk untuk memajukan pelaksanaan kerjasama.

Geely walaupun tidak meningkat dengan cepat, tetapi juga 2 bulan berturut-turut menembus 100,000 unit, bulan ke-7 berturut-turut menyegarkan rekod sejarah tertinggi, ini adalah prestasi yang sangat kuat. Selain itu, Great Wall juga 4 bulan berturut-turut mencatatkan rekod baharu.

Walaupun SAIC tidak menyegarkan rekod baharu, tetapi juga 5 bulan berturut-turut stabil jualan bulanan menembus 100,000 unit,

Dapat dikatakan, syarikat kereta tradisional di pasaran luar negara sedang menyambut letusan komprehensif. Ini pada satu tahap dapat mengurangkan keadaan tegang di dalam negara.

Pengusaha baharu juga melihat potensi besar pasaran luar negara. Sejak tahun ini, Nio, XPeng, Li Auto, dll syarikat kereta jelas mempercepatkan tindakan layout luar negara.

XPeng mengumumkan strategi jangka panjangnya di Australia, rancangan 2027 di sana memperkenalkan XPeng Peranti Panduan Cerdas Tinggi. Selain itu, anak syarikat XPeng Australia-New Zealand akan melancarkan 5 model kereta baharu dalam 6 bulan, dan merancang布局 3 pusat pengalaman teknologi bendera dan 50 cawangan di Australia.

Selain dari Australia, XPeng juga di Munich Jerman majlis pelancaran Mona L03. Rancangan tahun ini mendarat di 65 negara dan wilayah, melengkapkan pasukan produk antarabangsa kumpulan XPeng.

Li Auto kemudian dengan Allur kumpulan automobil tempatan Kazakhstan mencapai kerjasama strategik, akan memulakan pengeluaran pemasangan tempatan dengan bantuan kilang Allur Kostanay. Li Auto L9 baharu juga sudah di Kazakhstan dilancarkan Julai, penetapan harga jauh melebihi dalam negara.

Leapmotor B10 lengkap pengesahan tempatan Mexico, rasmi mendarat di pasaran tempatan dan memulakan penghantaran, memulakan proses pengembangan pasaran Amerika Utara. Semasa ini, Leapmotor B10 sudah masuk kedai tempatan Mexico. Leapmotor C10, C16 juga akan masuk ke pasaran secara beransur.

Persaingan luar negara sudah menjadi jalan wajib syarikat kereta, di pasaran dalam negara polarisasi dua kutub, struktur pasaran secara beransur stabil, pasaran luas luar negara mungkin menjadi langkah seterusnya syarikat kereta persaingan penting.

Xiaomi Membalikkan Meja, Model Jualan Tinggi Dikeluarkan Secara Padat

Julai bukan bulan besar pelancaran produk, banyak syarikat kereta meletakkan model jualan tinggi di Julai untuk dilancarkan.

Beban bulan ini mestilah Xiaomi.

30 Julai malam, Xiaomi Pengcheng menganjurkan majlis pelancaran teknologi, melancarkan 2 kereta baharu. Memasang Xiaomi reka sendiri mesin pengatur jarak Kunlun, prestasi keserasian bahan api luas, boleh tambang 92, 95, 98 nombor beza汽油. Keadaan WLTC bawah Pengcheng N70 kekurangan tenaga rendah minimum 5.7L/100km, CLTC julat elektrik tulen tertinggi boleh mencapai 505km, penuh minyak penuh tenaga julat gabungan semua menembus 1500km.

Lei Jun juga重点介绍 ruang kabin pelbagai fungsi belakang yang boleh diubah, kerusi sokongan hadapan 180°putaran, dua baris pergerakan mendatar.

Yang paling memecah ialah harga, N90 Max harga pra penjualan 299,900 Yuan, N70 Max harga pra penjualan 259,900 Yuan, 2 kereta baharu ini pada September rasmi dilancarkan. Mengikut corak biasa, kereta baharu mungkin akan menurunkan harga lagi. Ini bermakna, jenis SUV saiz penuh siri 9 ini sudah Xiaomi tekan di bawah 300,000 Yuan, untuk AITO M9, Li Auto L9, Zeekr 9x, Nio ES9, dll saingan, mungkin tidak kecil dampak.

Namun, ada juga netizen mempersoalkan, kereta baharu meletakkan platform 400V di kelas 300,000 jenama bendera, tiada belakang roda pusing, tiada asas kawalan elektronik, penderia bateri penurunan, penderia elektrik dan perkakasan panduan cerdik di majlis pelancaran disengajakan memudarkan, tetapi dari reaksi pasaran semasa melihat, Xiaomi Pengcheng mungkin akan memberikan pasaran yang sudah sangat激烈，memadamkan satu lagi api.

Selain Xiaomi, syarikat kereta popular lain juga melancarkan model jualan tinggi.

Nio bawah Firefly Kumbang Api mengumumkan, Siri Halo Mencari Cahaya model pertama "Habitat" rasmi dilancarkan, harga keseluruhan kereta bermula 133,300 Yuan.

XPeng MONA L03 di pasaran China总共推出 9 model, harga 123,800 hingga 156,800 Yuan. L03 kedudukan SUV kompak, menyediakan elektrik tulen dan pengatur jarak dua kuasa.

Leapmotor baharu B siri rasmi dilancarkan, B10 kedudukan SUV kompak elektrik tulen, B01 kedudukan sedan kompak elektrik tulen, seluruh siri piawai cip Qualcomm SA8295P, seluruh kawasan 800V Silicon Carbide sistem tekanan tinggi+3C pengecasan cepat dsb. B10 harga bermula 99,800 Yuan, B01 harga bermula 95,800 Yuan.

Generasi baru Li Auto L6 rasmi dilancarkan, hanya menyediakan satu versi Ultra, harga runcit serantau seragam 249,800 Yuan.

Di pihak syarikat kereta tradisional, Geely bawah Lynk & Co 07GT rasmi dilancarkan,总共推出 4 model. Geely Galaxy TT Ultra rasmi memulakan pra penjualan, kereta baharu kedudukan sedan saiz sederhana menengah elektrik tulen, Ultra adalah versi high-spec, seterusnya akan menambah model harga lebih rendah. Zeekr 9X versi 5 kursi rasmi dilancarkan.

Dongfeng bawah Voyah Zhui Guang S mengumumkan model maksimum empat roda, harga pra penjualan 309,900 Yuan, seterusnya akan menambah versi belakang penggerak jangkaan panjang dan versi jangkaan standard. Kereta baharu kedudukan SUV saiz sederhana menengah elektrik tulen, orientasi produk lebih condong muda dan sukan.

BYD Ocean Network bawah Hai Bao 08 rasmi dilancarkan, kereta baharu总共推出 6 konfigurasi.

Masa memasuki suku ketiga, syarikat kereta pertengahan tahun akan segera bermula. Memerhatikan subsidi berkaitan mulai berkurang, setengah tahun ini akan menjadi kali terakhir penerbitan untuk mencapai jualan.

Perebutan "BBA Tempatan"

Perebandingan jualan "Nio, XPeng, Li Auto" ketiga-tiga syarikat ini semakin menjadi tidak bermakna.

Di satu pihak, kemunculan Leapmotor, membuatkan tiga syarikat ini berubah menjadi permainan persaingan pengusaha baharu kedua. Di satu pihak lagi, XPeng, Nio layout di segmen harga rendah, tiga syarikat pengusaha baharu bukan lagi perbandingan langsung penjualan kereta kelas menengah atas dan mewah.

Separuh tahun depan, Li Auto, AITO, Nio, Zeekr, di kelas harga SUV saiz penuh, 400,000 Yuan mewah, bertanding sengit, empat syarikat kereta ini sekarang mempercepatan rebutan pelanggan BBA.

Gelombang ini bermula Li Auto L9,凭借 pada kawalan tepat keperluan keluarga ayah, Li Auto Automobile terlebih dahulu cuba air. Dari Jun 2022 serendah pertama penghantaran ke Jun 2026, Li Auto L9 guna 4 tahun lengkap 300,000 unit penghantaran terkumpul. Awal, Li Auto mampu bergantung pada satu model keras menghadapi Nio, XPeng, layout tepat pada pasaran ayah adalah kunci.

AITO membawa pasaran ini ke puncak. September 2023, AITO M9 muncul, 1 tahun jual 150,000 unit, 21 bulan berturut-turut merangkul pertama jualan kelas mewah 500,000 Yuan.

Beberapa tahun sebelum ini,凭借布局 awal, panduan cerdik dan kawasan kokpit yang memimpin, AITO dan Li Auto menikmati kelebihan pasaran. Tetapi struktur pasaran tidak akan berubah, kelebihan terawal AITO M9 dan Li Auto L9, dengan cepat akan dikejar.

Kesuksesan Zeekr berasal dari kejayaan 9X dan 8X. 29 September 2025 selepas dilancarkan, 9X di pasaran SUV premium kelas 500,000 Yuan China, 7 bulan berturut-turut kekal pertama jualan. Mei tahun ini, Zeekr 8X jualan 6103 unit, rebutan kelas 300,000-500,000 Yuan hibrid SUV jualan pertama.

Nio kemudian mengikuti, ES8 dan ES9 secara siri berturut-turut问世, kelebihan Nio berada pada produk tukar baterinya, melalui BaaS model sewa elektrik, Nio menekan harga permulaan ES9 di bawah 400,000 Yuan. Julai, Nio ES9 juga pergi jualan yang baik. ES8 305 hari lengkap penghantaran ke-130,000 unit. Nio ES9 sejak 28 Mei membuka penghantaran, 30 hari penghantaran memecahkan 10,000 unit, menyegarkan rekod penghantaran paling pantas model elektrik tulen kelas mewah lebih 500,000 Yuan.

Dari jualan, kelas harga kelas menengah atas dan mewah, Julai, Zeekr berlari ke hadapan, Li Auto, AITO, Nio jenama utama rapat mengejar, empat syarikat kereta ini jarak sekarang tidak besar.

Empat siapa akan jadi BBA Tempatan, atau empat sama ada mereka semua boleh jadi BBA Tempatan, menjadi lebih mempunyai daya tarikan.

Jualan Tinggi, Rintangan Berat

Berbanding perebutan kelas menengah atas, penurunan harga nampaknya pilihan paling mudah untuk pengusaha baharu.

XPeng keluar Siri Mona, Nio推出 Siri Onvo, Siri Kumbang Api, semua adalah serangan tepat pada jualan.

Tetapi dari hasil, pasaran pengguna awam bukan pasaran yang mengambil dan memberikan, walaupun kedudukan kelas menengah atas, tidak bermaksud syarikat-syarikat ini boleh melalui harga rendah mencuri bahagian syarikat lain.

Sebagai contoh Nio, ia mengeluarkan kelas harga 100,000-200,000 Yuan jenama Onvo, jenama bawah 100,000 Yuan Kumbang Api, tetapi sehingga Julai, jualan sumbangan Onvo 10,155 unit, 3 bulan berturut-turut stabil di atas 10,000 unit, tetapi 2 bulan terakhir berbanding bulan lepas semua muncul penurunan. Kumbang Api juga permulaan jualan lemah, sehingga kini belum berjaya bulanan 10,000 unit.

XPeng tidak mengumumkan sumbangan jualan Siri Mona, tetapi dari keseluruhan jualan XPeng melihat, masih belum menembus tembok 40,000 unit, oleh itu, harga rendah mungkin dalam jangka pendek mengurangkan tekanan jualan, perubahan jualan substantif masih memerlukan proses panjang.

Bahagian ini dalam Hyper Aion, dll syarikat kereta tradisional jenama pedagang juga sama wujud, pernah, Aion jualan melampaui Nio, XPeng, Li Auto, tetapi dalam pembangunan peringkat semasa ini, secara beransur-ansur kehilangan kelajuan, Julai jualan 34,987 unit, masih berada dalam keadaan mendatar.

Bahagian ini Geely dan Leapmotor menunjukkan lebih cemerlang. Leapmotor tidak bergantung pada jenama, tetapi benar-benar harga tinggi konfigurasi rendah. Julai, jualan Leapmotor pertama kali berdiri di 100,000 unit, 4 bulan berturut-turut jualan ciptakan rekod sejarah tertinggi, lepaskan lain pengusaha baharu jauh di belakang.

Geely Galaxy juga merupakan manifestasi kekuatan produk. Menawarkan popular, kereta rumah, fokus kos penggunaan rendah dan keupayaan kegunaan tinggi. Julai jualan 107,800 unit, 2 bulan berturut-turut menembus 100,000, menjadi challenger kuat BYD.

Pasaran pengguna awam, jenama mungkin bukan faktor paling utama, nisbah harga dan kualiti yang lebih tinggi, pengalaman produk yang lebih boleh dipercayai.

Xiaomi, HarmonyOS: Kerisauan Pertumbuhan Kereta Internet

Xiaomi dan Huawei, sedang menghadapi kerisauan masing-masing.

Julai, jualan Xiaomi sehingga kini masih berada di sekitar 30,000 unit, ini sudah tentu dengan kapasiti, tetapi pada Disember tahun lalu, kapasiti Xiaomi pernah ditarik ke 50,000 unit, masih berturut-turut 3 bulan menembus 40,000 unit, kini Xiaomi masih mengekalkan kapasiti di 30,000 unit, masih belum dengan baik mencerna pesanan. Tahun ini, saham Xiaomi sudah lebih dari puncak turun 30%, tekanan sangat besar.

Situasi yang sama HarmonyOS Smart Mobility juga menghadapi. Julai, HarmonyOS Smart Mobility jualan 45,046 unit, Jun menembus 50,000 unit kemudian jatuh balik ke 40,000 unit. Ini jauh bukan had HarmonyOS Smart Mobility. Beberapa tahun kebelakangan ini, "kawan baik" HarmonyOS Smart Mobility terus membesar, sekarang sudah ada "Lima Dunia Tiga Alam", tetapi peringkat semasa ini, prestasi ekosistem ini tidak optimis.

AITO tidak perlu berkata, AITO memimpin Seres Automobile jualan hanya 20,480 unit, jualan kembali ke aras Mac. Hangus penuh Hangzhou, Mei memulakan penghantaran, sehingga Julai baru-baru mencapai 20,000 unit penghantaran. Dengan Chery kerjasama Zhi Jie, bulan ini akhirnya pecah 10,000, mencapai 10,709 unit, tetapi masih belum menyegarkan rekod baharu.

Dalam keadaan jualan rendah, kos dengan kerjasama Huawei sedang ketara. 2025, Seres membayar Huawei lebih 20 bilion Yuan yuran perolehan, kos ini yang tegar dalam keadaan semasa semakin tajam.

Julai, Seres memuatkan amaran kerugian suku kedua, di antaranya, AITO kereta 2026 separuh tahun tanpa pendapatan dikurangkan kerugian bersih mencapai 1.7-1.95 bilion Yuan. HarmonyOS bertegas berjalan jalan kelas atas, dalam keadaan normal, keuntungan syarikat kereta ada jaminan, tetapi dengan harga rangkaian bekalan naik, persaingan syarikat kereta meningkat, syarikat dalam rangkaian HarmonyOS menghadapi tekanan operasi.

Mendapatkan keadaan semasa, Xiaomi memberikan jalan penyelesaian, mengeluarkan jenama pengatur jarak Pengcheng, sekali lagi melalui produk baharu membuka jualan. Namun, haba yang disokong oleh sensasi baharu ini akhirnya akan kembali tenang, Xiaomi dan Huawei sudah melepasi tempoh kelebihan, memerlukan kekuatan produk yang lebih kuat.

Persaingan sengit memang keadaan semasa syarikat kereta tenaga baharu. Bagi banyak syarikat kereta, ini adalah kitaran yang sukar, tetapi syarikat kereta China yang berevolusi berterusan, sedang mencapai overtaking lekuan secara komprehensif.

Kesusahan syarikat kereta China, adalah kesusahan naik jalan, berbanding dengan ini, sejak tahun ini, tiga巨头 mewah tradisional BBA (Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Audi) turun harga secara kolektif. Tiga kekuatan syarikat kereta Jepun (Honda, Toyota, Nissan) separuh tahun jualan di China secara kolektif turun, di mana Honda turun berbanding tahun lalu 34.7%. Di bawah trend besar, syarikat kereta China dalam rebutan tapak kuasa lama, dalam rebutan peluang zaman, memerlukan teknologi dan pengalaman yang lebih melampaui zaman, ini adalah satu proses, keadaan sukar yang sukar ini, akhirnya juga akan perlahan-lahan bertahan.