National Information Center's Xu Changming: Chinese Auto Going Global Has Three Solid Foundations and One Trend

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May 21, the opening ceremony of the 12th Chengdu International Auto Parts and Aftermarket Service Exhibition and the China Auto Ecosystem Partners Conference was held at Century City New International Conference and Exhibition Center in Chengdu. This event, themed "Leading the Trend 2026: A Must-Do, Taking a Step Ahead", focused on two current hot topics "Automotive Modification Industry Supply Chain" and "Automotive Complete Vehicle & Parts Industry Going Global", gathering industry elites to discuss the industry's future, injecting strong momentum into the high-quality development of the Southwest automotive industry.

During the keynote speech session, Xu Changming, former Deputy Director of the National Information Center and Senior Economist (Positive Level), believed that China's auto exports are at a historical leap stage, and the underlying logic for future growth is solid - release of demand in emerging global markets, qualitative change in competitiveness of Chinese brands, and active going global of the whole industry chain. Despite volatile factors such as trade friction and local protection, the trend of internationalization is irreversible. Enterprises should focus on quality and service, avoid vicious competition, promote the upgrade from "Complete Vehicle Export" to "Ecosystem Going Global", and achieve sustainable, upward global development amidst fluctuations.

The following is the speech transcript (compared based on recording by Auto Expert):

Respected guests, good morning! I am very happy to share my views on auto export and internationalization trends with you today.

This chart shows that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, China's auto exports achieved leapfrog development. Before 2020, for about ten-plus years, auto exports were stable at around 1 million vehicles. In 2021 it reached 2 million vehicles, and last year it reached 7.1 million vehicles. In five years, it increased by 6 million vehicles, which is a major trend. In the first four months of this year, exports reached 3.18 million vehicles, up 62% year-on-year, another year of rapid growth. China has large export volumes in major global regions and countries. Among them, exports to Asia are the highest, reaching 3 million vehicles last year, followed by Europe. At the country level, exports to three countries exceed 500,000 vehicles, exports to five countries are at the 300,000 vehicle level, and exports to more than ten countries are between 100,000 and 200,000 vehicles. Overall, China's export distribution globally is relatively balanced.

Everyone is concerned about the export trend in the next five years. We judge that in the next few years, China's auto internationalization will still maintain a relatively good development trend. There are three reasons:

Reason One: The potential of international markets is huge, providing potential opportunities for China's auto exports.

This chart shows the change in global auto market sales over the past twenty-plus years. Actually, going back forty years, from 1960, global total auto sales increased by 10 million vehicles every ten years. The fastest recent growth was from 2011 to 2017, increasing by 20.2 million vehicles in seven years. Why so fast? Because China and India, two major population countries, saw synchronous market growth in these seven years - China doubled, and India's market also rose. During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the past five years saw recovery growth from the pandemic, with the global market increasing by 13 million vehicles, of which China accounted for over 6 million vehicles, and we shared a larger portion of the increase. More critically, the growth of the global market mainly comes from emerging market countries. The two curves in the chart, blue represents mature markets, red represents emerging markets. Mature markets are stable at 40 million vehicles, no growth in twenty years, and even slightly declining in recent years; while emerging markets grew from over 9 million vehicles to over 40 million vehicles. Starting from 2021, consumption in emerging market countries surpassed mature markets. The characteristic is: purchasing power is not strong enough, but they want to buy cars. Therefore, Chinese cars have a market in models with moderate prices and higher performance/quality, and this market will grow relatively fast in the future.

Research on the basic law curve of auto demand: The horizontal axis is GDP per capita, the vertical axis is vehicle ownership per 1,000 people. The basic law is: when GDP per capita is between 1,000 and 3,000 USD, as long as the economy grows, ownership per 1,000 people rises, generating a large amount of new demand every year; after exceeding this range, ownership per 1,000 people no longer grows, mainly shifting to replacement demand. There are still many countries in the world at the bottom left - low GDP per capita, low ownership per 1,000 people. As long as these countries' economy grows in the future, demand will grow.

Looking at specific regions: Latin America, 660 million people, total sales last year 4.25 million vehicles. China has 1.4 billion people, Latin America is about half of China, according to China's per capita purchasing level, its sales should reach 12 million vehicles, but now it is only over 4 million vehicles, huge potential. Middle East region, 380 million people, sales last year 3.43 million vehicles, according to China level should reach around 7 million vehicles. ASEAN region, nearly 700 million people, sales last year only 2.8 million vehicles, sales corresponding to half of China's population should be 12 million vehicles, therefore huge growth space. Africa 1.5 billion people, more than China, sales last year only 1 million vehicles, not even a fraction of China's, potential is even greater. Of course, the prerequisite is economic growth. So, as long as the global economy, especially emerging market countries' economy grows, auto demand has great space, and these markets are exactly where Chinese cars have competitiveness.

Reason Two: The competitiveness of Chinese brand cars globally has improved rapidly, reflected in data performance and reputation.

First look at data: In 2020, for every 100 cars sold in overseas markets, Chinese brands only accounted for 0.8 cars. By last year, this number rose to 6.5 cars, growth was very fast. The share in emerging markets is higher, slightly worse in mature markets. The line below is our share per 100 cars in developed country markets, although also rising, overall share is low, less than 3 cars. But in emerging markets, for every 100 cars sold, we account for 13.6 cars, basically reaching Japan's level. Look at EVs, competitiveness is stronger: for every 100 EVs sold in overseas markets, we account for 18.7 cars; for every 100 fuel cars sold, we only account for 4 cars. EVs also account for nearly 10% in mature markets, and still growing. In emerging markets, for every 100 EVs sold, we account for over 50 cars, more than half are Chinese brands. Thirty years ago, the EV market was dominated by Germany, Japan, South Korea, and the USA, now in emerging markets more than half are Chinese brands.

Just having data is not enough. If the reputation is poor, it will repeat the fate of motorcycles - in 2002, 2003 we quickly became first in the Vietnam motorcycle market, but surpassed by Japan after three or four years because quality was not good. Now our reputation is very good. For example in Thailand, for every 100 EVs sold, Chinese brands account for 86 cars; in Indonesia, account for 92 cars. User evaluation is very high: Great Wall Motor customer feedback, Chinese EV safety systems are done very well, automatic follow, braking, anti-collision technologies are almost all present.

Fuel car reputation is also very good: 23.6% share in Malaysia fuel car market, 38.5% in Egypt. A multi-brand dealer in Malaysia evaluated, Chinese car prices are close to local brands, but configurations are far superior, especially in smart cockpits, sunroofs, electric seats, LED lights, etc., extremely attractive to young consumers. Egypt users say, initially felt owning Chinese cars was risky because Chinese cars often had faults before, but this view changed over the past five years, Chinese auto quality has significantly and unexpectedly improved.

These are conclusions obtained by the National Information Center through in-depth research. Good quality, good reputation, next step if spare parts supply and after-sales service system can be significantly improved, China's auto going global will be unstoppable - this is the extension of domestic competitiveness. Five years ago exports stayed at 1 million vehicles, because domestic competitiveness was not enough. Last year, independent brand domestic market share already reached 64%, while in 2020 it was only 33%.

Reason Three: Industry chain entities represented by complete vehicles are all actively promoting internationalization.

In terms of complete vehicles, three enterprises with million-unit exports: Chery 1.33 million vehicles, BYD 1 million vehicles, SAIC Passenger Vehicle plus Commercial Vehicle close to 1 million vehicles. Half million level: Geely, Great Wall, Changan. 100,000 level: JAC, Dongfeng, GAC, FAW. Enterprise distribution is also relatively balanced, will not affect overall exports due to individual enterprise issues. Chery has ranked first among Chinese brands in exports for 23 consecutive years, overseas sales revenue exceeded 100 billion yuan last year, overseas dealers reached 3,000. During Beijing Auto Show, Chery set up a separate hall, inviting overseas dealers to China to visit Wuhu factory. BYD chased very fast in the recent two years: 400,000 vehicles exports in 2024, reached 1 million vehicles in 2025, relying on EVs to open international market, brand reputation has formed. Others like SAIC, Changan, Great Wall also have unique advantages.

In addition, parts enterprises, logistics, dealers, automotive financial institutions, service agencies, etc. are all actively going global - as experts said "Ecosystem Going Global", although slightly weaker compared to complete vehicles, overall trend is good. Joint venture brands are also doing exports, last year reached 830,000 vehicles, Tesla, Kia, Volvo, Hyundai, Ford leading the way. Many joint venture enterprises see sales decline in China market, only relying on domestic market difficult to sustain, therefore all make export a strategy. Kia is most typical: domestic sales 100,000+ vehicles, exports 170,000 vehicles, maintain 300,000 vehicle scale, realized profit last year, became "Small but Refined" case. Volkswagen, Toyota, etc. are also researching how to utilize China production capacity and manufacturing capability for export, especially new energy vehicles.

As overall export volume rises, professional niche markets will also follow. For example, off-road vehicles, started two years late, accelerated starting 2023, reached 500,000+ vehicles last year, increased more than double for consecutive years. This March off-road vehicle exports 80,000 vehicles, at this scale annual is expected to reach 1 million vehicles. Next step, modified cars will also have good development. Used car exports will also increase. Therefore, future export forms will be diversified, both complete vehicles, also industry chains and ecosystem chains, can build factories themselves, also can utilize local production capacity, etc.

Of course, I also agree with the views of the two experts: exports will not rise in a straight line, but develop amidst fluctuations. Because auto is very important to any country, only exporting complete vehicles opponents will definitely not be willing, and cannot crush local industry. So, my confidence in exports is firm - it will definitely develop gradually forward amidst fluctuations.

Thank you all!