China's New Energy Rise, Pioneering the Challenge to Japanese Cars?

For the past few decades, Japanese cars, relying on reliability, fuel economy, and global manufacturing systems, have long occupied an important position in the global automotive industry. The endurance and resilience of the Japanese car manufacturing system are also key reasons for their global popularity. Toyota surpassed Volkswagen Group to become the world's largest carmaker in 2020 and still firmly holds the top spot.

However, against the backdrop of the Middle East situation causing international oil prices to surge, Chinese new energy vehicles seem to be quietly impacting the established global automotive market structure.

Statistics from the International Energy Agency (IEA) show that Chinese enterprises account for 60% of global EV sales in 2025. Relying on power battery, intelligent driving, smart cockpits, and supply chain advantages, they achieved a transition from "catchers" to "rule makers" in the EV era. Companies like BYD, Geely, Wuling, Chery, XPeng, Li Auto, and Leapmotor are accelerating their march into global markets, including mature automotive markets like Europe and Japan.

Unlike the large-scale entry into Europe, Chinese car brands choosing to directly enter the Japanese automotive market mainly focus on BYD, Zeekr, Chery, etc., and generally choose to directly enter the local mass-market passenger vehicle sector, competing head-on with Toyota, Honda, and Nissan.

Chinese electric vehicles, equally affordable yet more intelligent, have already brought some impact to the Japanese automotive industry. "In the past, cheap meant bad quality, but now (Chinese cars) product quality has significantly improved. Prices are so cheap, it's hard for Japanese cars to compete." A senior executive of a Toyota primary supplier told Nikkei News.

Nikkei News also commented that Chinese Chery Automobile and BYD plan to launch light EVs in Japan. If competing on the same stage, the situation will inevitably become increasingly severe for Japanese cars.

If the spike in international oil prices caused by the Middle East crisis is the main reason new energy vehicles have been welcomed by European and Japanese consumers in recent months, then a forecast from the IEA still gives an optimistic expectation for new energy vehicle development. IEA predicts that global EV stock will increase to more than 6 times that of 2025 by 2035, accounting for 50% of global car sales.

In this way, a problem also surfaces: Will Chinese new energy vehicles replace Japanese cars first?

Both Japanese Fuel Cars and EVs Are Trapped

Market sales are the most intuitive manifestation of industrial competition.

According to Japanese media statistics, Toyota and Honda's new car sales in China in May decreased by 32% and 49% year-on-year, respectively. In terms of cumulative new car sales in China from January to May, Toyota reached 579,400 units, a 10% decline year-on-year, while Honda reached 173,344 units, a 30% decline year-on-year.

Toyota explained: "After March, affected by the Middle East situation, crude oil and gasoline prices rose, exacerbating the stagnation of the gasoline car market."

In fact, even before the Middle East situation, the Chinese car market had already formed a clear differentiation. The incremental new energy market is completely dominated by local Chinese brands, while Japanese and German car companies can only continuously retreat to the shrinking fuel vehicle stock market. Compared to Japanese cars' cautious attitude in the Chinese new energy vehicle market, German car companies have a more aggressive layout in intelligent electric vehicles.

Even under the pressure of international situations, Toyota, the world's largest carmaker, remains cautious about electrification layout. On May 29, 2026, Japanese media reported that Toyota Motor will suspend the development of new generation pure electric vehicles (EV).

Lexus LF-ZC Concept Car

Specifically, Toyota suspended the mass production model of Lexus pure electric sedan "LF-ZC". This car was originally scheduled to be launched in 2027. It is a flagship model tasked with Lexus' electrification transformation mission. In addition to carrying new high-performance batteries, it also utilizes "Integrated Die Casting" technology to achieve one-piece molding of parts using aluminum casting. As a new generation EV gathering the latest Toyota technological essentials, it received high attention from the market. Announcing the suspension of R&D after two delays further shocked the outside world.

Japanese media analysis pointed out two reasons behind Toyota suspending the development of the LF-ZC model: First, the United States revoked tax credits for EV purchases and other policies, and Europe also cancelled the policy prohibiting the sale of internal combustion engines in principle by 2035. Second, the rise of Chinese cars, especially the competitive barriers established by Chinese car companies relying on domestic suppliers, autonomous driving, and internet-of-vehicles technologies.

Once the core moat technology of Japanese cars, fuel-electric hybrid technology is now being chased by domestic DM-i and Thor DHT plug-in hybrid technologies, continuously siphoning off Japanese hybrid stock users with lower fuel consumption on low battery and stronger power performance.

At the same time, what brought the biggest impact to Japanese cars is that Chinese new energy vehicle exports have become a new growth curve. In 2025, the export volume of domestic new energy vehicles doubled significantly, selling far to global markets such as Europe, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East, having shaken off the low-end cheap label, with brand power and product power upgrading synchronously.

Adding insult to injury for Japanese cars, due to the continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, Toyota Motor announced in late May 2026 plans to cut overseas production by about 83,000 units before November, mainly reducing the production of fuel vehicles facing the Middle East and Asian markets.

If looking only at the Chinese market, a tacitly understood reality is that, in the short term, Japanese cars still have stable fuel vehicle stock space. However, with the improvement of domestic charging infrastructure and the popularization of consumer electrification awareness in the medium and long term, the stock of fuel vehicles will also continue to shrink, and the decline in Japanese car sales will become the norm.

Intelligence Generation Gap, Chinese Cars' Killer App in Japan

Recently, Japanese research company MM Institute (Minato-ku, Tokyo) released the results of a survey on Japan's autonomous bus practical testing project. The results show that among the vehicles used in the 2025 annual practical testing, Chinese BYD ranked first with 36.4%. The combined share of Chinese manufacturers reached 50.3%.

It is understood that the survey object for this time was L2-level and above autonomous driving buses, and the project mainly focused on road driving practical testing for ordinary passengers. In 2025, there were a total of 143 vehicles used in practical testing projects nationwide in Japan, an increase of 18 vehicles over the previous year.  

Looking at the share of each company, BYD ranked first, France's Navya second, and the third place was Estonia's Auve Tech accounting for 12.6%, China's intelligent solution supplier WeRide accounting for 2.8%.

If electrification is the choice of different technology routes between Chinese and Japanese car companies, then intelligence is the core track that completely widens the generation gap between the two sides. Japanese media reports write: Multiple Japanese car company executives publicly admitted that Japanese car companies are at least five years behind Chinese car companies in smart cockpits and high-level autonomous driving.

If calculated based on the traditional car iteration rhythm more familiar to Toyota and other car companies, a 5-year gap is a whole generation of cars.

Japanese media believes the reason for this difference in car building is the different underlying car building logic of the two sides.

The person in charge of MM Institute's survey said: "Most autonomous practical testing projects in Japan are led by startup companies. Such projects are more inclined to adopt vehicles from overseas manufacturers." While he has high hopes for domestic Japanese manufacturers, he also pointed out: "Considering safety aspects, some manufacturers are cautious about practical testing, and there are also concerns about price".

In fact, mainstream domestic autonomous new cars are all equipped with native intelligent electric architectures, standard full vehicle OTA upgrades, and the vehicle can update the in-vehicle system, voice interaction, energy consumption control, assisted driving functions, etc., online throughout its life cycle, achieving "getting newer with use".

At the same time, 8155/8295 flagship chips, continuous voice interaction, multi-screen interconnection, and localized ecosystem adaptation have become standard equipment for 200,000-level family cars. The intelligent experience fits domestic user needs and has long become an "cannot go back after use" travel mode for Chinese car owners. This strategy of "dimensionality reduction attack" using intelligence against non-smart cars might also be feasible in the Japanese market. After all, Japanese car companies still follow fuel car development logic, hardware is fixed so functions are locked, most models do not support full vehicle OTA, and chip performance is "lagging behind since departure".

Not to mention, starting from the end of 2025, more than ten domestic brands have begun testing L3-level autonomous driving commercial operations, and more new force car company heads believe that from a technical level they can "go straight to L4". XPeng recently launched XPeng GX which has already pre-installed Robotaxi capabilities. This intelligent leadership tag will also help improve the image of Chinese cars in overseas markets.

Global Market, Chinese Cars and Japanese Cars Must Fight

The replacement of Japanese cars by Chinese electric vehicles is not limited to the domestic market. In the future, on a global scale, it will continue to impact Japanese cars' overseas advantage markets cultivated for half a century, completely rewriting the global automotive competition pattern.

According to statistics, in 2025, the market share of Chinese brands in Southeast Asian new energy markets broke through 22.2%, BYD single brand market share in Thailand's pure electric market exceeded 70%. In the entry-level family car markets of Indonesia and Vietnam, Chinese electric vehicles have begun to shake the monopoly of Japanese fuel cars in local markets.

Great Wall Motor in Thailand, image source: Great Wall Motor

In the European market, even facing tariff barriers and strict localization requirements, domestic new energy and plug-in hybrid models still maintain positive growth. They rank high in the new energy sales list in countries such as the UK, Norway, and Spain. Especially in recent months, affected by rising international oil prices, the sales of Chinese new energy vehicles in Europe continue to rise.

In Japanese traditional advantage markets such as Mexico and South America, Chinese electric vehicles continue to increase their market share with high cost-performance and reliable three-electric technology, continuously replacing traditional Japanese fuel models. With Canada opening the new energy vehicle market to Chinese car companies, the volume of Chinese new energy vehicles in North America will also steadily increase in the future.

BYD enters the Japanese K-car market, image source: BYD Fan Home

Especially worthy of mention is in the Japanese market. In the past two years, BYD, Wuling and other brands have completed right-hand drive modifications and local certifications, officially landing in the Japanese market. BYD ATTO3 remains stable in the Japanese small electric vehicle sales list, and the market share of Chinese brands in Japanese new energy segments continues to break through.

Reporter's Note

Returning to the question at the very beginning of the text: Will Chinese new energy vehicles replace Japanese cars first?

It is unavoidable that Japanese cars have half a century of accumulation in advantage markets and still cannot be shaken by Chinese car companies in the short term. However, if focusing on the long-term 5-10 year dimension, global fuel ban policies continue to land, electrification and intelligence become the main industry tracks, and the technical barriers of Japanese cars in the fuel era will begin to collapse.

If Japanese cars cannot quickly solve short boards, then the problems of intelligence capability, supply chain system, and slow transformation will also continue to amplify in the future 10 years. During this period, Chinese electric vehicles might greatly squeeze Japanese car shares, thereby rewriting the global automotive map.