BYD Vows to Surpass Toyota and Volkswagen Within Five Years, Global Auto Landscape Faces Hard Challenge

On October 7, 2026, BYD Executive Vice President and Head of International Business Li Ke publicly stated at the Singapore Milken Asia Summit that BYD plans to surpass Toyota and Volkswagen within the next five years to become the world's largest automobile manufacturer. This is not a temporary slogan; Chairman Wang Chuanfu of BYD has already clearly outlined the plan to "become the largest car manufacturer by scale within five years" at the shareholder meeting in June 2026. Li Ke subsequently further emphasized that this goal will be achieved solely through organic growth, relying neither on the US market nor driving sales through acquiring car companies.

Looking at the current volume gap, Toyota's global sales in 2025 were approximately 11.32 million units, Volkswagen's about 8.98 million units, and BYD ranked sixth with 4.6 million units. In the first half of 2026, Toyota sold 5.39 million units, while BYD's sales for the same period were 1.81 million. The volume gap is still close to three times. To catch up within five years, BYD needs to add over 1 million units in sales annually, making the challenge extremely difficult. However, growth momentum is the core variable: Among the top 10 global carmakers, Toyota's recent compound annual growth rate was only 0.4%, and Volkswagen even declined by 1.3%, while BYD is the fastest-growing automaker. The industry generally believes it is basically unquestionable that BYD will surpass Stellantis, GM, and Hyundai-Kia within two to three years. It is highly feasible for BYD to surpass Volkswagen to become the second largest globally within five years, and whether it can finally catch up to Toyota depends on the future trajectory of the global market.

BYD has clearly stated it will temporarily not enter the US passenger car market, instead shifting its focus to Europe and emerging markets. Factories in Thailand and Uzbekistan are already in production, the Hungary factory is set for mass production in the fourth quarter, and factories in Brazil and Indonesia are also under construction. In September 2026, BYD's overseas monthly sales reached 179,900 units, a year-on-year surge of 153.9%. Its plug-in hybrid models have surpassed Volkswagen and Ford competitors in the European market. Unlike the positioning of traditional automakers, BYD spans multiple sectors including automobiles, energy storage, batteries, and photovoltaics. This full-industry-chain new energy engineering capability is exactly the core confidence behind its challenge to traditional global giants.