[Lead: After years of technical iteration, policy pilot programs, and market refinement, the global Robotaxi industry is gradually leaving behind the initial phase of experimental exploration and has officially entered the critical window period for commercialization and scaled expansion. Under the resonance of policies, costs, and technology, the domestic and overseas markets show differentiated development trends, and the industry's short-term operational logic and medium-to-long-term industrial transformation trends are becoming increasingly clear.]
Author: Zhang Dachuan
Recently, Zeekr's native L4-level autonomous driving vehicle Ojai, custom-built for Waymo, officially began passenger operations in San Francisco. Against the backdrop of the United States continuing to impose restrictions on the Chinese electric vehicle industry, this landing is a milestone breakthrough, indicating that Chinese automakers already possess significant influence in the global Robotaxi race.
△Zeekr's native L4-level autonomous driving vehicle Ojai, custom-built for Waymo, officially began passenger operations in San Francisco
Looking at the industry trend, the global autonomous driving regulatory system is accelerating improvement, the cost of vehicles and perception hardware continues to decline, and 2026 is the critical year for Robotaxi to shift from demonstration operations to scaled commercial landing. Numerous signs indicate that the industry has broken out of the long-term loss-making trial operation status and has officially entered a new development stage where commercial landing and global expansion run parallel.
Domestic Robotaxi Commercial Landing Accelerates
In 2026, the construction of the domestic Robotaxi-related regulatory system entered a fast lane. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a draft for mandatory national standards for L4-level autonomous driving, clarifying the entry threshold for mass-produced vehicles around core indicators such as vehicle computing power, perception equipment, and system redundancy. The Ministry of Public Security simultaneously issued autonomous driving road traffic regulations, which will be implemented in July, unifying the road rules, accident liability determination, and traffic management requirements for L3 and L4 level vehicles. Currently, 26 cities nationwide have opened qualifications for charge-free safety Robotaxi commercial chargeable operations, and local areas are also launching special policies to help industry development. Among them, Shenzhen took the lead in landing local legislation for intelligent connected vehicles and strictly implemented the requirements for localized management of autonomous driving data.
With the support of policy dividends, the industry has welcomed the critical turning point of scaled commercialization, with mobility technology enterprises and vehicle manufacturers exerting force simultaneously, forming a development pattern where mass production landing and operation expansion are advanced in both directions.
△The first domestically produced front-mass-produced Robotaxi prototype built according to L4-level autonomous driving standards—Xpeng GX has entered mass production
Except for the L4 model Ojai custom-developed by Zeekr for Waymo, other domestic top players are also active. Baidu Apollo Go has expanded its operation map to 22 cities, with daily order volume maintaining steady growth; Pony.ai has obtained commercial operation qualifications throughout Shenzhen, achieving single-vehicle profitability first in Guangzhou and Shenzhen, and partnered with Toyota to promote the mass production of customized Robotaxis. The automaker camps are also accelerating layout: the first domestically produced Robotaxi prototype built according to L4-level autonomous driving standards and achieving front-mass production—Xpeng GX has entered mass production; Geely, relying on its subsidiary Caocao Mobility, deployed dedicated Robotaxis without steering wheels in Hangzhou for demonstration operations. In addition, WeRide continues to deepen multi-city commercial projects, with multiple routes carrying passengers on a normalized basis; DiDi Autonomous Driving has also expanded the scale of unmanned vehicle fleets in multiple places, continuously refining operational service capabilities, and the commercial landing rhythm of the entire industry has accelerated comprehensively.
△Pony.ai achieved single-vehicle profitability first in Guangzhou and Shenzhen
Countries gradually improve regulatory systems to protect Robotaxi
The development of the domestic Robotaxi market is booming, and 2026 has also become an important node for autonomous driving regulations landing in many overseas countries. Taking the US as an example, the "2026 Autonomous Driving Act" has entered the deliberation stage, significantly relaxing the production exemption restrictions for dedicated Robotaxis without steering wheels. Previously, US state-level regulatory rules were scattered and inconsistent, but this federal law will clear obstacles comprehensively, helping autonomous driving vehicles to be deployed across states on a large scale. The EU, based on the existing "Artificial Intelligence Act" and autonomous driving exemption rules, gradually opened L4-level autonomous driving commercial operation permissions in core European cities. Major European countries such as the UK, Germany, and France have also successively refined clauses on traffic accident rights and responsibilities definition. Countries such as Japan, South Korea, and the UAE also continue to improve access norms, delineate commercial demonstration operation areas, and strive to maintain competitiveness in the unmanned driving race.
At the same time as policies landed, global automakers and technology enterprises are also accelerating layout and attacking hard.
Waymo, equipped with Zeekr's dedicated pure electric chassis, completed the mass production assembly of the sixth-generation autonomous driving system in the US factory, significantly reducing overall manufacturing costs. The vehicle discards the steering wheel and pedal structure, making it a truly fully unmanned vehicle. Waymo plans to start from San Francisco and gradually cover multiple cities in the US, pushing for a target of tens of thousands of capacity within the year, while promoting landing operations in overseas cities such as London and Tokyo.
As Waymo's core competitor in North America, Tesla is also increasing the effort, having launched a safety-free Robotaxi service at its headquarters in Austin, and plans to expand to Dallas, Houston, and other Texas cities within the year. Relying on the pure visual technology route, the Tesla Robotaxi model—Cybercab has obvious cost advantages; combined with the background of no new models being released at the present stage, the company will center its focus entirely on autonomous driving mobility business. Cruise, which completed restructuring, has re-obtained California road test licenses and steadily resumed demonstration operations. Uber continues to expand its autonomous driving fleet. Currently, Uber has launched Robotaxi hailing services in multiple places in North America and the Middle East, accelerating its transformation from a traditional ride-hailing platform to an autonomous driving mobility aggregation platform.
The US Robotaxi market has also presented a situation of blooming flowers
In addition, Hyundai partnered with Motional to launch autonomous driving paid pilots in Seoul; Nissan partnered with Uber to cooperate with the UK team and Waymo to promote the landing of Tokyo unmanned taxis; multiple Chinese autonomous driving enterprises have also completed commercial preparation in Singapore and South Korea. The overseas market as a whole is moving from road tests to normalized chargeable operation stages. The global layout of Chinese autonomous driving enterprises is also full of highlights. Regarding the European market, WeRide launched the first local commercial Robotaxi service in Madrid, Spain on June 3. This is the 12th city for its global landing; Pony.ai partnered with Uber to land operations in Zagreb, Croatia, creating the first full-domain chargeable Robotaxi project in Europe. Dubai in the Middle East, relying on loose industrial policies, has concentrated on landing fully unmanned operation projects for Baidu, WeRide, and Pony.ai, gradually building a regional autonomous driving industry hub.
△Japanese and South Korean automaker giants are also continuing to promote the commercial landing of Robotaxi
Robotaxi Future is Promising
Data forecasts that the global Robotaxi market size may break through $400 billion in 2035, and the domestic market size will also enter the hundreds of billions of yuan level, with broad development prospects for the industry.
On the policy level, in the next 3 to 8 years, global autonomous driving regulations will complete the transition from pilot details to unified legislation. China will successively issue national unified L4-level autonomous driving vehicle access, accident liability determination, and data security management related regulations, gradually opening up fully unmanned operation permissions for highways and cross-city road sections. Overseas markets such as Europe, America, Japan, and South Korea will also continue to relax controls, removing legal obstacles for the commercial landing of fully unmanned autonomous driving. Regulatory authorities of various countries relaxing policies on the premise of strictly safeguarding the safety bottom line can not only enhance the global competitiveness of local automakers but also lay a solid institutional foundation for the long-term development of the industry.
On the cost side, good news has also arrived. With the scaled mass production of on-board large models, domestic LiDAR, and steer-by-wire chassis, Robotaxi hardware costs continue to go down. Currently, the Leapmotor A10 sells for as low as 86,800 yuan, which is already a model equipped with LiDAR as standard; it is expected that before and around 2027, the cost of mainstream domestic models with Robotaxi capabilities will drop to 150,000—200,000 yuan. At the same time, Robotaxi operating cost per kilometer is better than traditional ride-hailing cars, and the industry is about to welcome the node of scaled profitability. As the operation map continues to expand, the scale effect will be further highlighted. Meanwhile, the massive road test data accumulated from the increase in vehicle inventory will continuously optimize the autonomous driving system's ability to cope with complex road conditions, making the vehicle accident rate significantly lower than manual driving, and public acceptance will also improve steadily.
△With technological progress and scale expansion, Robotaxi hardware costs continue to go down
For automakers, B-end mobility services and C-end retail will become two independent tracks in the future, and Robotaxi has become a clear development direction in the mobility field. All parties in the industry chain will accelerate deep collaboration, with vehicle manufacturers, algorithm vendors, mobility platforms, and component suppliers joining hands to build a vertically integrated industry alliance. Currently, automakers relying on mobility business to gain incremental orders, if they fail to complete business layout and resource integration in time, may face the problem of B-end order shrinkage subsequently. In addition, the overseas rhythm of domestic automakers and autonomous driving enterprises will also continue to accelerate. Technology licensing + local fleet cooperation will become the mainstream mode for rapid volume expansion in overseas markets. In this process, protecting core intellectual property and data security, adapting to autonomous driving regulations in various overseas regions, and exploring sustainable profit models are equally critical.
△Robotaxi has become one of the clear development directions in the mobility field
Comment
Overall, Robotaxi has completed technology verification, and the three core drivers of policy improvement, cost reduction, and demand landing are fully mature. The global track pattern is clear: China relies on the layered regulatory system and complete industrial chain to achieve breakthroughs in both commercialization landing and going overseas; Europe and America relax controls on local industries through legislation while limiting foreign entrants with strict data compliance barriers. In the short term, the industry will focus on refined operations in core cities and polish stable profit models; in the medium-to-long term, with the scaled landing of L4 native autonomous driving vehicles, Robotaxi will deeply integrate into urban public mobility and reshape the industry pattern of traditional ride-hailing cars and taxis.
(This article is originally from 'He Yan Auto Review', unauthorized reproduction is prohibited)
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