Tahun lalu, jumlah eksport kenderaan China melampaui Jepun, menduduki tempat pertama di dunia; separuh tahun ini, jumlah eksport meningkat lagi 65.3%, dijangka mengatasi paras 10 juta unit sepanjang tahun. Angka ini amat berimpak, tetapi di sebalik kilauan itu, realiti memalukan mula kelihatan: kereta semakin banyak dijual, tetapi tembok peraturan yang dihadapi semakin tinggi.

Kesatuan Eropah mengenakan cukai antisubsidi sehingga 35.3% untuk kenderaan elektrik tulen buatan China, kadar cukai gabungan melebihi 45%; Brazil menaikkan cukai impor kenderaan elektrik kepada 35% secara seragam bermula 1 Julai; Thailand melaksanakan mekanisme komitmen pengeluaran, menuntut setiap 1 kenderaan yang diimport mesti dihasilkan 2 kenderaan di tempatan; Afrika Selatan juga sedang mempertimbangkan untuk menaikkan cukai impor kenderaan siap dari China dan India kepada 50%.

Dari Eropah ke Amerika Latin, dari Asia Tenggara ke Afrika, kenderaan China sedang menghadapi pengepungan dari segala arah. Model aset ringan yang bergantung pada pengeluaran di dalam negara dan jualan ke luar negara, had maksimumnya hampir tercapai.

3 Julai 2026, Chery memainkan langkah di Pretoria, Afrika Selatan, secara rasmi mengambil alih kilang Rosslyn yang dioperasikan Nissan selama hampir 60 tahun. Ini nampak seperti transaksi biasa bagi Nissan untuk membatalkan kerugian dan Chery untuk mengembangkan kapasiti, tetapi jika dilihat di bawah tema 'bagaimana syarikat automotif China benar-benar berakar di luar negara' ini, bebannya berbeza.

Nissan membuang beban, Chery mengambil kapasiti

Penjualan kilang Rosslyn adalah sebahagian daripada pelan global Nissan 'Re:Nissan'. Dalam dua tahun kewangan 2024 dan 2025, kerugian gabungan Nissan melebihi 1.2 trilion Yen. Mengikut pelan restrukturisasi, Nissan akan menutup 7 kilang global dan pemangkasan kerja sekitar 20,000 orang sebelum tahun kewangan 2027, pangkalan pengeluaran global dikurangkan daripada 17 kepada 10.

Kilang ini pernah menghasilkan model seperti lori pikap Navara, NP200, dan lain-lain, produk menjangkau lebih 40 negara Afrika. Tetapi kegunaan kapasiti pengeluaran menurun berterusan dalam beberapa tahun kebelakangan ini. Selepas NP200 dihentikan pengeluaran pada Mac 2024, Navara menjadi satu-satunya model yang sedang dihasilkan di kilang, namun jualan bulanan hanya beberapa ratus unit. Mei 2025, Nissan mengumumkan pengeluaran tempatan Navara juga akan ditamatkan. Bagi Nissan, kilang ini telah berubah daripada aset menjadi beban.

Bagi Chery, mengambil alih kilang sedia ada lebih efisien daripada membina kilang dari sifar. Chery memasuki pasaran Afrika Selatan sejak 2021, keluk pertumbuhannya curam. Pada titik pengembangan pantas, kapasiti tempatan bermaksud mengelakkan risiko mata wang dan cukai, juga boleh menyediakan asas perkakasan untuk mengembangkan bahagian pasaran seterusnya.

Yang lebih penting, pembelian ini adalah satu langkah dalam 'pemainan globalisasi sistem' Chery. Pada tahun ini, Chery bukan sekadar menjual kereta, tetapi mendiami sistem industri secara menyeluruh termasuk penyelidikan, pembuatan, operasi, piawaian ke pasaran luar negara.

Di Eropah, pusat operasi dan institut penyelidikan Eropah di Barcelona, Sepanyol telah dilancarkan, kilang bersama dengan EBRO juga telah beroperasi; Di Asia Tenggara, kilang baharu bernilai 800 juta USD di Vietnam sedang diteruskan. Kilang Rosslyn Afrika Selatan pula diletakkan sebagai hab automotif komprehensif yang merangkumi Afrika Selatan.

Penyusunan tiga tempat saling sokongan, satu rangkaian pembuatan global sedang terbentuk.

Tantangan sebenar langkah Afrika Selatan

Selepas penyerahan kilang, ujian sebenar mungkin baru sahaja bermula.

Chery berjanji mengekalkan semua 692 pekerja, rancangan pengeluaran pertengahan 2027, kapasiti jangka panjang satu giliran 50,000 unit, dan berusaha mencapai kadar tempatanisasi 40% sebelum 2028. Dan 40% inilah yang menjadi masalah teras.

Sekarang Afrika Selatan mengenakan cukai kira-kira 25% untuk impor kenderaan siap, kerajaan sedang merancang untuk menaikkan kadar kepada had maksimum 50% yang dibenarkan oleh WTO. Apabila dilaksanakan, model impor yang kebanyakannya berjenama China dan India akan menghadapi tekanan kos langsung.

Inilah sebenarnya adalah kelebihan bagi Chery. Namun ada kebimbangan tersembunyi, jika kemajuan tempatanisasi tidak mengikut, kos impor komponen akan meningkatkan kos pembuatan kenderaan siap dengan cepat.

Lebih nyata, saiz pasaran tempatan Afrika Selatan adalah terhad, jualan kenderaan baharu tahunan kira-kira 550,000 unit, jauh tidak mencukupi untuk menyokong penyerapan kapasiti berskala besar. Jika kapasiti kilang Rosslyn perlu dipenuhi sepenuhnya, Chery mesti menjadikan Afrika Selatan sebagai pangkalan eksport, menjual kereta ke selatan Afrika bahkan pasaran yang lebih jauh. Tetapi saiz pasaran automotif kebanyakan negara Afrika amat kecil, infrastruktur lemah, laluan eksport tidak lancar.

Sementara itu, asas industri komponen tempatan Afrika Selatan tidak mengembirakan. Data persatuan industri automotif Afrika Selatan menunjukkan, hanya 33% kenderaan di buat di tempatan Afrika Selatan pada 2025, penurunan besar berbanding paras sebelumnya melebihi 50%.

Industri komponen tempatan Afrika Selatan bergantung lama pada pesanan syarikat automotif multinasional. Dengan jenama seperti General Motors, Ford, Nissan keluar atau mengurangkan pengeluaran tempatan, sistem pembekal komponen telah mengalami kemerosotan.

Chery perlu mencapai kadar tempatanisasi 40% dalam tempoh tiga tahun, bermaksud perlu membina atau memulihkan keseluruhan rangkaian bekalan dari sifar, mengambil pembekal komponen China, dan lengkapkan pengesahan tempatan dan persediaan pengeluaran, jadual agak mendesak.

Kesimpulan

Apabila bidak kilang Rosslyn ini diletakkan, corak di atas papan mula berubah. Ini adalah titik tanda aras peralihan eksport automotif China daripada 'jenis perdagangan' kepada 'jenis berakar'.

Dalam konteks tembok halangan cukai yang mengepung dari segala arah, model aset ringan yang bergantung pada eksport kenderaan siap sudah sukar diteruskan. Chery memilih jalan yang lebih mampan, mendemakan sistem industri secara menyeluruh termasuk penyelidikan, pembuatan, rantai bekalan, piawaian ke pasaran luar negara.

Jalan ini tidak rata. Kadar tempatanisasi 40%, sistem komponen rapuh, kapasiti pasaran terhad, setiap satu adalah halangan yang perlu dilalui. Tetapi Chery bukan bermula dari sifar.

Pengalaman operasi terkumpul selepas bertahun-tahun bergelut di luar negara, dan daya saing global rantaian bekalan automotif China menyediakan sokongan kos dan teknologi, penyusunan di Sepanyol, Vietnam, Afrika Selatan sedang membentuk kesan rangkaian.

Mungkin paling sesuai untuk mengakhiri dengan kata-kata Chery sendiri di media sosial "Satu era baharu akan tiba. Bermula saat ini, kereta Chery akan membanggakan melayani Afrika Selatan, dibuat di Afrika Selatan."

Ungkapan ini bukan hanya mengenai nasib sebuah kilang, juga merupakan satu peralihan asas yang sedang dialami oleh eksport automotif China, dari menjual satu kenderaan kepada menanam satu akar, inilah globalisasi dalam erti kata sebenar.

Last year, China's passenger vehicle exports surpassed Japan to take the global top spot; in the first half of this year, exports increased by another 65.3%, with the full year expected to break the 10 million vehicle milestone. This number is striking, but behind the glamour, an awkward reality is emerging: cars are selling in increasing volumes, but the walls of regulations are getting higher and higher.

The EU imposed countervailing duties of up to 35.3% on pure electric vehicles made in China, pushing the combined tax rate above 45%; Brazil raised import tariffs for electric vehicles uniformly to 35% starting from July 1st; Thailand implemented a 'production wager' mechanism, requiring the local production of 2 vehicles for every 1 imported; South Africa is also considering raising the import tariff for complete vehicles from China and India to 50%.

From Europe to Latin America, from Southeast Asia to Africa, Chinese automobiles are facing encirclement on all sides. The light-asset model of producing domestically and selling overseas has hit its ceiling.

On July 3, 2026, Chery made a move in Pretoria, South Africa, formally taking over the Rosslyn Plant, which Nissan had operated for nearly 60 years. This appears to be an ordinary transaction for Nissan to cut losses and Chery to expand production, but viewed under the proposition of 'how Chinese automakers can truly take root overseas', its weight is quite different.

Nissan Sheds Burden, Chery Takes Capacity

The sale of the Rosslyn Plant is part of Nissan's global restructuring plan 'Re:Nissan'. In the 2024 and 2025 fiscal years combined, Nissan reported a total loss exceeding 1.2 trillion yen. According to the restructuring plan, Nissan will close 7 plants globally and lay off about 20,000 people before the 2027 fiscal year, reducing global production bases from 17 to 10.

This factory previously produced models such as the Navara pickup and NP200, with products covering more than 40 African nations. However, capacity utilization rates have continued to decline in recent years. After the NP200 stopped production in March 2024, Navara became the factory's only in-production model, yet monthly sales were only a few hundred units. In May 2025, Nissan announced that local production of Navara would also cease. For Nissan, this factory has transformed from an asset into a burden.

For Chery, taking over an existing factory is more efficient than building from scratch. Chery entered the South African market in 2021, showing a steep growth curve. At this node of rapid expansion, local capacity means avoiding exchange rate and tariff risks, and also provides a hardware foundation for the next step of expanding market share.

More importantly, this acquisition is a piece in Chery's 'systematic overseas expansion' chess game. Since the beginning of this year, Chery has not just been selling cars but has deeply planted the roots of an entire industrial chain, including R&D, manufacturing, operations, and standards, into overseas markets.

In Europe, the European Operation Center and Research Institute in Barcelona, Spain, have been commissioned, and the joint venture factory with EBRO has also started production and operations; in Southeast Asia, a new factory in Vietnam worth 800 million USD is under promotion. The South African Rosslyn Plant is positioned as a comprehensive automotive hub radiating to Southern Africa.

The layout of these three locations supports each other, and a global manufacturing network is taking shape.

The Real Challenges of the South Africa Move

With the factory handover complete, the real test may have just begun.

Chery committed to retaining all 692 employees, planning to start production in mid-2027, with a future single-shift capacity of 50,000 units, and striving to achieve a 40% localization rate before 2028. This 40% is the core challenge.

Currently, South Africa imposes import tariffs of about 25% on complete vehicles, with the government considering raising the tax rate to the WTO-allowed limit of 50%. Once implemented, imported models dominated by Chinese and Indian brands will face direct cost pressures.

This is actually a positive for Chery. However, there are concerns; if the localization progress cannot keep up, the cost of importing parts will rapidly increase the overall vehicle manufacturing cost.

More realistically, the South African domestic market size is limited, with new car sales of about 550,000 per year, far insufficient to absorb large-scale production capacity. If the capacity of the Rosslyn Plant is to be fully utilized, Chery must treat South Africa as an export base, selling cars to Southern Africa and even farther markets. However, the automotive market size in most African countries is extremely small, infrastructure is weak, and export channels are not smooth.

Meanwhile, the foundation of the South African local parts industry is not optimistic. Data from the Motor Industry Association of South Africa shows that in 2025, only 33% of vehicles were manufactured locally in South Africa, a significant drop from the previous level of over 50%.

The South African local parts industry has long relied on orders from multinational automakers. As brands such as General Motors, Ford, and Nissan successively withdrew or reduced local production, the parts supplier system has already begun to shrink.

For Chery to achieve a 40% localization rate within three years, it means building or restoring an entire supply chain from scratch, introducing Chinese parts suppliers, and completing localization certification and production preparation. The schedule is quite tight.

Conclusion

Once this chess piece, the Rosslyn Plant, is placed, the situation on the chessboard begins to change. This is a landmark node for Chinese automotive export shifting from 'trade-type' to 'rooted-type'.

Against the background of tariff barriers encircling on all sides, the light-asset model relying on complete vehicle exports is unsustainable. Chery has chosen a more sustainable path, deeply planting an entire industrial root system including R&D, manufacturing, supply chain, and standards into overseas markets.

This path is not smooth. The 40% localization rate, the fragile parts system, and limited market capacity, each is a threshold that needs to be crossed. But Chery is not starting from zero.

The operational experience accumulated over more than 20 years of struggling overseas, as well as the global competitiveness of the Chinese automotive supply chain providing cost and technical support, its layout in Spain, Vietnam, and South Africa is forming a network effect.

Perhaps the most fitting conclusion is the words from Chery itself on social media: 'A new era is coming. From this moment on, Chery Automobile will proudly serve South Africa, manufactured in South Africa.'

This statement speaks not only of the fate of a factory but also of a fundamental transformation that Chinese automotive export is undergoing: from selling a car to rooting in a place. This is true globalization.