BYD Wants to Surpass Toyota, The Core Difficulty is Fundamentally Not Sales Volume

From Chinese Speed to Global Systems, the Real Test Has Just Begun

If we view the global automotive industry as a mountain, Toyota has stood at the summit for many years.

Now, BYD has set its sights on the very top of that mountain.

Reuters reported on October 6 that BYD founder Wang Chuanfu stated at an investor meeting in June this year that the company aims to become the world's largest automotive manufacturer around 2030. This means BYD ultimately cannot bypass Toyota—this automotive group which sold approximately 11 million units last year and has been operating globally for decades.

But the question truly worth discussing is not: When can BYD sell 11 million units?

But: Even if BYD surpasses Toyota in sales figures one day, has it truly surpassed Toyota?

The answer is far more complex than a ranking list.

The Chinese Market Has Proven BYD Can Produce More Cars, Faster

BYD's first exam in the Chinese market was mass manufacturing.

In September 2026, BYD's global new energy vehicle sales reached 463,561 units, up 17% year-on-year. Among them, overseas sales of passenger cars and pickup trucks reached 179,877 units, up 153.9% year-on-year. Exports are becoming an important lever for BYD to hedge against domestic competition.

These figures show that BYD is not only the largest new energy vehicle enterprise in China but also begins to possess the ability to continuously expand overseas.

Its biggest pressure point for traditional automakers in the past was speed.

Product development is fast, supply chain response is fast, integration of batteries and electric drives is fast, model updates are fast, and price adjustments are also fast. The fierce competition in the Chinese market has pushed this speed to unprecedented levels.

But the hardest thing in the automotive industry has never been expanding sales volume in a familiar market, but taking the same capabilities to completely different countries and still being able to make stable profits.

What Toyota is Truly Good At Has Never Been the Number 11 Million

If Toyota's strength was only sales, catching up would not be as difficult as imagined for BYD.

Toyota's moat is the global system behind 11 million units.

It can sell cars in the US, in Japan, in Europe, Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America; more importantly, it doesn't just load cars produced in Japan onto ships to ship out, but has factories, suppliers, dealers, financial services, and after-sales networks in many countries.

After consumers buy a Toyota, they can still find parts, repair personnel, and second-hand car buyers years later. When local governments discuss trade policies, they must also consider the employment, tax revenue, and industrial chain already created by Toyota.

This system was built over decades. It turned Toyota from a Japanese brand into part of the automotive industry in many countries.

What BYD is challenging now is exactly this layer of capability.

BYD's First Wall: The World is Not as Open as the Chinese Market

Reuters analysis points out that three major automotive markets, the US, Japan, and India, currently have obvious entry barriers for BYD, accounting for about one-quarter of global passenger car sales combined.

Europe has already added extra tariffs on BYD cars manufactured in China, Brazil has increased the tax burden on imported new energy vehicles, and the UK is also discussing stricter protective measures.

This means the closer BYD gets to Toyota, the greater the resistance it might encounter.

Toyota also encountered trade friction when going global in the past. In the 1980s, the large influx of Japanese cars into the US also triggered political pressure. Toyota's key choice later was to stop just shipping cars made in Japan globally, but to go globally to manufacture cars.

BYD is walking the same path. Overseas production layouts like Hungary and Brazil are not only to save transportation costs, but also to transform BYD from a "Chinese export enterprise" to a "local automotive manufacturer".

But building an assembly plant is just the starting point. Whether suppliers are localized, whether R&D and management can integrate locally, whether after-sales support keeps up, and whether products can meet local regulations, unions, and consumer habits, will all determine whether this factory ultimately becomes a real overseas business.

Second Wall: Brand Residual Value and Long-term Trust

One of the strongest competitive methods of Chinese new energy vehicles is rapid updates.

Annual model changes, biennial model replacements, configurations constantly increasing, prices constantly dropping. In the Chinese market, this speed stimulates consumers and forces automakers to continuously improve.

But in mature automotive markets, consumers consider not only how cheap it is to buy today, but also ask: How much is it worth in three years? Can it still be repaired in five years? Are parts easy to find? Will dealerships exit? Will the brand continue to operate?

One of Toyota's true strengths is that consumers believe its cars still have value years later, and repair networks won't suddenly disappear.

This trust cannot be built with a single launch event. It requires long-term ownership volume, stable services, and cross-cycle brand management to support.

BYD is rapidly accumulating overseas sales, but overseas ownership volume, second-hand car residual value, financial systems, and dealer profitability all need time to verify.

Third Wall: Can Chinese Speed Become Global Speed

In China, one decision can rapidly cover the whole country; globally, every market has its own rules.

Crash regulations, data security, software certification, union systems, dealer laws, environmental requirements, and consumer habits will all slow down product development and operating rhythms.

This is not a matter of efficiency levels, but that globalization itself requires more coordination costs.

BYD must prove not only how many cars Chinese speed can produce, but whether this speed can run simultaneously in dozens of countries, maintain quality under different regulatory environments, and deliver stably when local supply chains are not mature.

This is also the gap most companies face most easily when going from domestic to global: domestic advantages are fast decision-making and fast manufacturing, while overseas competition requires compliance, organization, channels, and services to speed up together.

The Final Exam: Can We Make Stable Profits

The automotive industry is ultimately not a sales competition, but a business competition.

If a car sold out doesn't make money, the larger the quantity, the greater the cash flow pressure sometimes can be. Toyota has experienced oil crises, financial crises, yen fluctuations, chip shortages, and the pandemic, yet still retains cross-cycle operating capabilities. This is the part most difficult for it to replicate.

BYD is still in a high-speed expansion stage, while simultaneously dealing with price competition in the Chinese market, overseas factory investment costs, and trade costs in different countries. Even in the future if news appears of "BYD sales surpassing Toyota", what the industry truly cares about won't be just who is number one in sales.

Everyone will continue to ask: Whose profit is more stable? Whose overseas factories are more mature? Whose dealers are more willing to follow? Whose second-hand cars hold value better? Who can continue to invest in R&D and service in the next crisis?

These questions determine who the real global number one is.

What BYD Truly Needs to Overcome is Toyota's Globalization Capability

Forty years ago, China's automotive industry research looked at Japan; twenty years ago, Chinese consumers bought Japanese cars in large numbers; today, Japanese automakers start adopting Chinese new energy supply chains, while BYD openly discusses when to surpass Toyota.

This looks like a story of "student challenging teacher", but the automotive industry has no graduation exam, nor is there a sales figure that can declare who will win forever.

The most important lesson Toyota leaves for China's automotive industry might be exactly this: Being global number one is never about selling the most cars in a single year, but that decades later, there are your factories in the US, your suppliers in Europe, your dealers in Southeast Asia, and after consumers buy the first car, they are willing to come back to buy a second one.

So, the day BYD truly surpasses Toyota is not when monthly sales first cross a certain number, but when an ordinary consumer in Brazil, Germany, the UK, Thailand, or the Middle East is preparing to buy a car, they will naturally put BYD into their selection list as they did with Toyota in the past.

Only then will the Chinese automotive industry have truly climbed over the mountain of Japanese automobiles.

Now, BYD has reached the steepest part at the foot of the mountain. The next challenge is not to build more cars, but to turn a Chinese enterprise into a real global automotive group.

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